VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCG #0036 0350455
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 040455Z FEB 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1447
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2944
RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000036 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM KNNP IN
SUBJECT:  HARDLINE KERALA COMMUNISTS LOSING OUT, BUT PARTY STILL 
OPPOSES CIV-NUKE DEAL 
 
REF: 07 CHENNAI 602 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  As Kerala's Communist Party of India (Marxist) 
(CPI(M)) prepare to hold its State Conference February 11 - 14, 
insiders say that the party's conservatives, led by Chief Minister 
Achuthanandan, will face a major defeat in the elections to the 
party's state committee.    State Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan's 
faction, which is seen to be more amenable to economic reforms, is 
expected to tighten its grip.  But the party's opposition to the 
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement remains as strong as 
ever.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) We spoke with CPI(M) insider John Brittas, Managing 
Director of Malayalam Communications, the CPI(M)-controlled TV 
company that runs three satellite channels, and a former New Delhi 
correspondent for the CPI(M) daily "Deshabhimani."  Brittas is a 
part of the CPI(M) faction led by State Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan, 
which is seen to be more open to economic reform and private 
investment.  (COMMENT:  Although the Pinarayi faction may be more 
receptive to economic reforms, they do not have a track record of 
accomplishment and many doubt their ability to deliver.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
MODERATE (BY KERALA STANDARDS) COMMUNISTS WINNING OUT 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Brittas was sharply critical of Chief Minister 
Achuthanandan.  "In all the other states including West Bengal, the 
Chief Ministers champion the cause of economic development and 
private investment while the party machinery would advise caution. 
Here, it is the other way round:  the party is for investment and 
economic development while it is the Chief Minister who wants to go 
slow," he pointed out.  According to Brittas, Achuthanandan has a 
good team of ministers including Finance Minister Thomas Isaac and 
Education Minister M.A. Baby but the Chief Minister is such a loner 
and a born factionalist that he cannot lead the team and produce 
results. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Brittas said that in the ongoing CPI(M) district elections, 
Vijayan's group is trouncing Chief Minister Achuthanandan's group. 
According to Brittas, Pinarayi Vijayan will emerge the unchallenged 
leader in the February 11-14 State Conference of the CPI(M).  He 
would not rule out the possibility of a mid-term removal of the 
Chief Minister but indicated that, more likely, the party would 
exert more control over the Chief Minister.  Brittas added that the 
constant infighting within the CPI(M) and the Left Democratic Front 
it leads has rendered the government ineffective and eroded the 
popular goodwill that brought them to power with a massive majority 
in 2006. 
 
¶5. (U) At the State Conference, Politburo Member Sitaram Yechury is 
scheduled to open a seminar on the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear deal and 
national General Secretary Prakash Karat will inaugurate a seminar 
on the "contemporary relevance of Marxism."  Agricultural Scientist 
M.S. Swaminathan and journalist Seema Musthafa are among the 
speakers at other seminars. 
 
CPI(M) REMAINS FIRMLY AGAINST CIV-NUKE DEAL 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Brittas advised against seeing the Left's decision to allow 
the government of India to negotiate a safeguards agreement with the 
International Atomic Energy Association as a dilution in the 
CPI(M)'s opposition to the Civil Nuclear Agreement.  He said it was 
only a temporary tactic to buy time in order to ease the fall-out of 
the violence in Nandigram, West Bengal, and to allow Congress to 
face the then-pending Gujarat elections.  Brittas said for its own 
electoral considerations, the CPI(M) could not afford to be seen as 
okaying the deal under any circumstances.  Brittas added, however, 
that he felt there is no chance for immediate mid-term parliamentary 
elections, indicating that the Congress party had capitulated to the 
CPI(M) position in the aftermath of its losses in the Gujarat 
elections. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT:  Brittas is an admitted supporter of Pinarayi's 
more reform-minded group.  Still a committed CPI(M) party man, he 
reflects a growing sentiment that the Chief Minister and his 
obscurantist allies have set back Kerala's chances to reform its 
economy and improve the investment climate.  But many in Kerala 
doubt the ability of Pinarayi and his supporters to deliver. 
Although they may be more open to private investment, they are also 
seen as more corrupt and lacking in political will.  A strengthened 
Pinarayi faction in the CPI(M) may improve things in Kerala a bit by 
tamping down on infighting in the coalition government, but major 
changes anytime should not be expected anytime soon.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
HOPPER