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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0242/01 0581510
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271510Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0334
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6723
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1711
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 0084
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ FEB QUITO 1058
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1045
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000242 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON OREP AR VE BR CU
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSTS DISCUSS CFK 
REGIME PRIORITIES WITH CODEL ENGEL 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Representative Eliot Engel and Delegation met 
February 21 with noted Argentine political and economic analysts to 
discuss bilateral relations, views on the Cristina Fernandez de 
Kirchner (CFK) administration, and regional issues, including 
relations with Brazil, Venezuela, and Cuba.  Analysts noted that CFK 
is not ideologically driven (in particular reference to relations 
with Venezuela), and that they expect her to follow most of her 
husband's economic and political policies.  Regionally, CFK looks to 
position Argentina between Brazil and Venezuela but, while CFK may 
be more interested in foreign policy than her domestically-focused 
husband, she too lacks experience in the area.  Domestic challenges, 
such as inflation and public security, will absorb much of CFK's 
attention, but economic and fiscal challenges will force her to 
focus more on the international arena, as her administration tries 
to deal with the related issues of energy shortages, the need to 
attract investment, and access international financial markets.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Representatives Eliot Engel, Maurice Hinchey, Jerry Weller, 
Gene Green, and Virgina Foxx, accompanied by Ambassador, met 
February 21 with noted Argentine political and economic analysts. 
The analysts were Rosenda Fraga, Jorge Castro, Diana Mondino, 
Alejandro Catterberg, and Nicolas Ducote. 
 
BILATERAL RELATIONS 
------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Rosenda Fraga, one of Argentina's preeminent political 
analysts, said that anti-American sentiment in Argentina is 
substantial, but is much like French public opinion of the United 
States.  In the case of France, he argued, public disdain for 
America does not impede France from being a NATO ally -- nor should 
it keep the U.S. and Argentine governments from working together. 
Chairman Engel suggested that perhaps some portion of the 
anti-Americanism arises from the close U.S.-Argentina relationship 
during the Carlos Menem administration (1989-1999), a government 
vigorously repudiated by CFK and former President Nestor Kirchner 
and now largely discredited by the Argentine public. 
 
DOMESTIC CONCERNS 
----------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Alejandro Catterberg, with the political consulting and 
polling firm Poliarguia, stated that the main concern of the 
Argentine public is personal security, followed by employment and 
inflation.  He noted that while CFK's public ratings are high, they 
are not as high as her husband's were at the outset of his 
administration, and he suggested that her public support will begin 
to decline, making her less popular during mid-term elections in 
¶2009.  To counteract this, Catterberg said, the Kirchners are 
rebuilding the structure of the Partido Justicialista (PJ), 
consolidating their control of it under the leadership of former 
President Nestor Kirchner.  This will provide CFK with more 
political power, but less public support, according to Catterberg. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Nicolas Ducote, Director of CIPPEC (Center for Implementing 
Public Policy), echoed the concerns of Catterberg regarding the 
concentration of power in the executive branch.  This is tempered 
somewhat, he noted, by the growth and influence of civil society 
groups focused on good governance, transparency, and strengthening 
democratic institutions. 
 
DOMESTIC ISSUES DRIVE INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (SBU) Rep. Jerry Weller wondered whether public opinion supported 
CFK being more of an internationalist than her husband, former 
president Nestor Kirchner.  The general consensus of the analysts 
was that, while CFK was more interested than her husband in 
international issues and Argentina's role in the world, she is not 
an "internationalist."  In fact, they agreed, she is relatively 
inexperienced in the global arena.  The analysts also noted that 
Argentines are currently focused on domestic issues, particularly in 
light of the very fresh memories of the 2001-2002 economic crisis. 
That said, the analysts thought that necessity rather than public 
opinion (e.g., energy shortages and the need to attract investment) 
will push CFK to be a more active participant in regional and 
international issues. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Economist Dr. Diana Mondino noted that Argentina's 
phenomenal growth over the last five years had occurred "despite the 
 
actions of the government," attributing the economy's performance to 
positive external factors such as high commodity prices.  While the 
Argentine economy is 40% larger than in 2002, she said, the 
education system is failing, and the vast majority of exports are 
commodities.  In short, Argentina's gains are not sustainable.  Rep. 
Maurice Hinchey asked whether Argentina is investing in alternative 
energy, given the energy shortages in the country.  Nicolas Ducote 
explained that such investments are difficult given an uncertain 
investment climate and domestic policies fixing the prices of fuel 
and electricity below market prices. 
 
ARGENTINA'S REGIONAL ROLE 
------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Jorge Castro, a strategic planning expert, expressed his 
opinion that the Kirchners should not be placed in the same 
ideological camp as Hugo Chavez or Evo Morales.  CFK's relations, 
with Venezuela, in particular, will be pragmatically driven and 
focused on economic and commercial issues.  Castro and Fraga agreed 
that the GoA sees itself filling the gap between Brazil and 
Venezuela and trying to benefit from that dynamic.  They also said 
that an interesting relationship to watch will be that of Brazil and 
Cuba.  They believe that Raul Castro will be more focused on 
domestic issues -- now that he has the reins of government -- and 
will seek to attract investment, at the same time trying to distance 
himself somewhat from Chavez in Venezuela.  Brazil, they said, will 
begin to exert more influence on Cuba in this scenario. 
 
¶9. (U) This cable was cleared by CODEL Engel. 
 
KELLY