VZCZCXRO1089
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHBE #0064/01 0372021
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 062021Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELMOPAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1061
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICA COLLECTIVE
RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELMOPAN 000064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CEN - R. BEAL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI BH
SUBJECT:  BELIZE:  ELECTION CAMPAIGN CONCLUDES 
 
REFS:  (A) BELMOPAN 057, (B) Belmopan 055 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:   Observers of Belize's election campaign refer 
to issues of class and race to predict voting patterns but most 
agree that after ten years in power and numerous corruption scandals 
it will be difficult for the government to be reelected on February 
¶7.  The two major political parties scrambled to register voters, 
including some hastily-minted new citizens, in advance of a January 
10 registration deadline.  As the frenetic pace of campaign spending 
nears its end, it is clear that both major parties are buying votes. 
 Election workers do not appear to be well organized on a national 
basis and procedures and rule enforcement will likely vary among the 
polling stations.  The Commonwealth Secretariat has sent election 
observers to Belize, and the Embassy will be fielding observation 
teams who will visit most constituencies.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  As four weeks of frantic and sometimes mean-spirited 
campaigning draw to a close, Belizeans will go to the polls February 
¶7.  Most observers, including us, foresee the opposition United 
Democratic Party (UDP) coming to power after 10 years of People's 
United Party (PUP) rule.  The result will be hard-fought, and in 
many constituencies could come down to a handful of votes.  The 
following are Embassy observations on the campaign and the likely 
outcome. 
 
VOTER REGISTRATION 
------------------ 
 
¶3.  (U)  January 10 was the last day for candidates to register 
voters.  The registration system allowed candidates to move voters 
between districts, so parties are able to shift votes from safer 
districts to help in more contentious areas.  This year, just days 
prior to the registration deadline, thousands of immigrants were 
sworn in as citizens at ceremonies that usually see only a few dozen 
participants.  Several sources noted that political parties paid 
citizenship and then voter registration fees for the new citizens, 
who were bussed directly to the registration offices.  New voter 
registrants can vote in any district they choose as registration is 
not limited by residence.  Likewise, candidates have no residence 
requirement to live in the districts they represent. 
 
CAMPAIGN SPENDING 
----------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  As the frenetic pace of campaign spending nears its end, 
it is clear that both major parties are buying votes.  Most spending 
is overt and candidates freely admit that "helping" voters directly 
drives election strategy.  Several candidates interviewed estimate 
that on average each candidate will spend from BZ$150,000 - $250,000 
(US$75,000 - $125,000) on the campaign, a significant sum 
considering that most constituencies average under 6,000 voters. 
These estimates do not include money spent by party organizations 
and do not reflect the increased availability of government services 
in the run up to election day.  Individual candidates pay 
constituents' medical or electrical bills, buy household goods, and 
give cash gifts to voters.  Candidates also provide services such as 
road grading, sewer construction, and garbage collection.  There are 
no campaign finance laws and while some candidates complain about 
the system, the complaints tend to focus on their opponents' deep 
pockets or sharp methods rather than on philosophical problems with 
how campaigns are funded here. 
 
ELECTION DAY PROCESS 
-------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U)  The last-minute referendum on electing the Senate has added 
a confusing element to the campaign (Ref A), particularly since the 
UDP has urged supporters to boycott the referendum.  The process for 
voting involves dipping an index finger into ink for the area 
representative vote and then returning to the booth for the 
referendum vote and dipping a middle finger in ink of another color, 
effectively doubling the amount of time a voter has to spend in the 
polling station.  The dual votes call for separate ballots, boxes, 
and voting lines.  The Election and Boundaries Department will 
deploy more than 1,500 public officers to 314 polling stations. The 
polls open at 7 am and close at 6 pm, a change from pervious 
elections (Septel). There are over 150,000 registered voters and 
high voter turnout is a tradition likely to be continued February 7. 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Election rules and staff do not appear to be well 
organized on a national basis and we expect that procedures and rule 
enforcement will vary among the polling stations.  For example, 
there have been rumors that voters plan to bring cameras or cell 
phones into the booth to take pictures of their completed ballot in 
order to prove they voted the "right" way and receive payment from a 
party representative.  According to the head of the Elections 
Commission, "the issue has been raised by both political parties as 
 
BELMOPAN 00000064  002 OF 002 
 
 
a concern.  But because it is not a part of our regulation we will 
not really stop anyone from taking cell phones in the polling 
booths."  In response, the opposition leader has drafted a complaint 
letter to the Elections Commission and the Prime Minister imploring 
them to ban cell phones from voting booths.  In addition, the Belize 
Election Commission performs vote counts in locations remote from 
where the votes are cast.  This provides an added complication of 
securely transporting ballot boxes. 
 
¶7.  (U)  All parties provide poll watchers in an effort to ensure 
the integrity of the vote, but there are no organized civil society 
groups doing independent election monitoring.  The Commonwealth 
Secretariat has, at the request of the government, sent election 
 
SIPDIS 
observers to Belize but with three teams of observers it will be 
difficult to cover a lot of ground.  The Embassy will be sending 16 
observers to various parts of the country and expects to cover 
two-thirds of the constituencies on election day (Septel). 
 
PREDICTIVE FACTORS 
------------------ 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Observers and candidates often refer to issues of class 
and race distinctions to differentiate between the two major 
parties.  They argue that the PUP represents the economic extremes 
of the population, receiving strong support from wealthy families 
and the impoverished.  In contrast, the UDP appears to draw strength 
from professionals and lower-middle and upper-middle class voters. 
(COMMENT:  If the sample of our locally-engaged staff is 
representative, this theory has some validity:  education and salary 
level are good predictors of party affiliation among our LES.  END 
COMMENT)   There have also been concealed racial undertones with 
oblique references to electing the first "black" Prime Minister (UDP 
leader Dean Barrow) or the fact that the UDP is primarily the party 
of the Creole population.  Many claim that new immigrant families -- 
the vast majority of whom are Spanish speakers from neighboring 
Central American countries -- primarily support the PUP, due to land 
grants, expedited citizenship, and cash payments provided by the 
incumbent party. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Most observers believe that the opposition UDP will win 
the election.  The PUP, by their own admission, are fighting against 
voter fatigue with a party in power for ten years.  The current 
government has also been plagued by multiple financial scandals. 
Anti-corruption is the foremost campaign issue for all political 
parties in this election.  Despite the negatives against it, 
however, the PUP appears more organized, has more experienced 
candidates, is receiving outside funding and is utilizing the full 
power of incumbency in their reelection effort.  Several recent 
polls show conflicting results and seem unreliable.  (REFTEL B)  Our 
analysis is that it will be closer than many people think but that 
Dean Barrow and the UDP will form Belize's next government.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
HILL