VZCZCXRO2489
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0185/01 0511248
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 201248Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2203
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000185 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) The Serbian government is making good on its promise to 
oppose Kosovo independence at every turn.  Political leaders and 
government officials have taken Serbia's fight into international 
arenas, pressing their points with legalistic arguments.  The 
government is skirmishing diplomatically with countries that 
recognize Kosovo, and the politicians will take to the streets along 
with the crowds to demonstrate their resolve.  While the United 
States and Europe may be the current object of ire, the real fight 
in Belgrade will be over control of the political agenda.  As 
tensions in Belgrade subside, we must focus on Serbian government 
actions in Kosovo. 
 
The Legal Battle 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) President Boris Tadic and Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic seek 
support in international fora.  Tadic invoked the UN Charter and UN 
Resolution 1244, as Serbian officials have throughout the Kosovo 
status negotiations, in defense of Serbia's claim to territorial 
integrity during his February 18 Security Council address.  FM 
Jeremic added references to the Helsinki Final Act, the Charter of 
Paris, and the Charter for European Security in remarks before an 
emergency session of the OSCE Permanent Council, February 19.  The 
MFA told emboffs that Jeremic will also address the Council of 
Europe.  Jeremic said publicly that Serbia would block Kosovo 
membership in international organizations.  "As long as Serbia is a 
member of the United Nations, Organization for Security and 
Cooperation in Europe, and the Council of Europe..., the 
self-proclaimed state of Kosovo will have no access to these 
institutions." 
 
Diplomatic Skirmishes 
--------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The GOS recalled its ambassadors to the United States, 
Turkey, Afghanistan, France, and Australia, and publicly announced 
it would do the same for ambassadors to all countries that 
recognized independent Kosovo.  The government made clear it was not 
breaking relations.  PolDir Boris Stefanovic told poloff that 
Serbia's ambassador to the UK had not yet departed Belgrade, and 
would not.  Stefanovic also said that he expected Ambassador Vujacic 
would not return to Washington, having already served nearly six 
years.  In Belgrade, the MFA told informed the Ambassador that his 
access to Serbian officials, and that of ambassadors from other 
countries that recognize Kosovo, will be limited.  He was informed 
that ministers and state secretaries will not receive him.  Emboffs 
have been told that non-Ambassador access to government officials at 
or below assistant minister will be possible, if somewhat 
formalistic. (Energy Ministry officials must get their Minister's 
approval to meet embassy personnel, but expect approval to be 
granted routinely.) 
 
Undiplomatic Escapades 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Whether driven by emotion, enthusiasm, professional 
inexperience, or political calculation, FM Vuk Jeremic crossed the 
line of diplomatic propriety.  In a speech carried on Serbian Radio 
and Television, Jeremic called the administration of President Bush 
the "worst [U.S.] administration ever" and said that whoever was to 
win the American presidential elections could not "do worse." 
 
No Economic Retaliation for Now 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) News agency Tanjung reported that Trade Minister Bubalo said 
that the "story of Kosovo in not yet finished, so Serbia cannot 
impose an economic embargo on part of its territory."  The 
Government has not announced if it will take any economic measures 
against countries that recognize Kosovo independence. 
 
Political Damage Control 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The fragile government coalition is staggering along. 
PolDir Stefanovic, a member Tadic's Democratic Party (DS), said that 
the coalition partners are in "constant negotiation" to hold the 
coalition together.  Were the government to collapse and the 
president to call parliamentary elections, Stefanovic said, the DS 
would lose dramatically.  The DS and its pro-European allies have 
caved to the militant DSS and removed non-Kosovo topics from the 
coalition's political agenda for a month. 
 
Taking it to the Streets -- in Peaceful Protest 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7.  (U) Government and opposition party members are working together 
 
BELGRADE 00000185  002 OF 002 
 
 
to organize a public demonstration.  On February 21 they will lead a 
peaceful march in central Belgrade which will culminate in an 
evening church service.  The DSS and Radical parties will bus in 
thousands of supporters from around the country. 
 
Trying to Maintain Law and Order 
------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Emotions are running high, in response to Kosovo's 
declaration, and the government is trying to use law enforcement 
assets to keep it in check.  Government leaders, in the days since 
Kosovo declared independence, have urged Serbian citizens to remain 
calm and refrain from violence.  Even in the midst of the violent 
demonstrations on February 17, Serbian police were professional in 
working to break up the angry mobs that were attacking targets 
around Belgrade.  DSS whip Aligrudic assured poloff that the Embassy 
would not have security problems in the days ahead. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Belgrade's immediate challenge is to get through the next 
few days without allowing political passions to burn out of control. 
 If all goes well, the organized marches should allow some of the 
political pressures of the moment to dissipate.  But the 
government's response to Kosovo independence is learly calculated 
and appears calibrated to keeptensions at a steady simmer.  This is 
certainly he approach of PM Kostunica who benefits from contiued 
attention to Kosovo, but not a return to busness as usual.  He must 
beware of Radicals and Scialists who may simply go on a rampage. 
 
¶10. (SU) Embassy believes tensions are likely to lessen n Belgrade 
in the next few days.  If and when tha happens, we must keep our 
eye on the more diffiult flashpoint of Northern Kosovo.  The 
February19 incident at the ABL, at which Kosovo Serbs burnd UNMIK 
checkpoints, is certainly not likely to e the last such 
provocation.  We note with concer that Ministry of Kosovo 
officials, and other seior Serbian leaders, visit Northern Kosovo 
everyday.  Kosovo Minister Samardzic, commenting on theFebruary 19 
events said, "I believe that the meaure is legitimate.  It might 
not be pleasant, butit is legitimate."  Embassy has strongly 
protestd this to the Serbian government saying violence is not 
legitimate.  Over the next few months, we must be vigilant that the 
Serbian government's efforts to ignore Kosovo's independence don't 
lead to more violence north of Mitrovica.  End Comment.