VZCZCXRO6136
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0166/01 0431730
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121730Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2180
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN SR XG KS
 
SUBJECT: Tadic Caves: DS and DSS Confirm the "Necessity of a Unified 
State" But Say Nothing on EU Path 
 
REFS:  A) BELGRADE 162 B) BELGRADE 148 C) BELGRADE 145 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Democratic Party (DS) and the Democratic Party of 
Serbia (DSS) said on February 12 that their number one priority was 
to pursue a unified position protecting the territorial integrity of 
Serbia, and government's institutions will work towards fulfilling 
this objective.  Missing from the government statement was any 
reference to how the gridlocked government should move forward 
towards the EU.  The statement received criticism from all sides of 
the political spectrum, including from within the governing 
coalition.  With no reference to the EU, Serbia's leaders appear to 
have put Serbia's path to Europe, a supposed top DS priority in 
Tadic's reelection, on deep ice; and thus postponed an eventual 
conflict within government.  End Summary. 
 
DS-DSS Statement On Unified State 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Following consultations between President Boris Tadic (DS) 
and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica (DSS) late on February 12, the 
government issued a statement confirming "the necessity of pursuing 
a unified state and national policy to protect the sovereignty and 
territorial integrity of Serbia."  The statement reads that due to a 
"real, impending threat of an illegal proclamation of unilateral 
independence [of Kosovo], ...all state institutions must take the 
necessary decision and measures to annul all illegal documents on 
unilateral independence." 
 
DSS Reaffirms Its Rejection of the EU Interim Agreement 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Despite Monday's statement of unity, the issue which 
initially brought the government stalemate - the Interim Agreement 
with the EU - remained unaddressed and unresolved.  On February 12, 
the DSS placed a full page ad in the daily tabloid Kurir stating 
that "Kosovo is not for sale" and that "no one has a right to sign 
the 'transitional political agreement' between the EU and Serbia". 
The ad said the interim political agreement (IPA) was "a deceit that 
implies our consent to take away Kosovo." According to the DSS ad, 
the IPA shows that the EU prefers Kosovo to Serbia.  The DSS 
reaffirmed in its ad that it was determined to prevent signing of 
the IPA with the EU without parliament's consent. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Though actors are still determining the exact choreography 
of upcoming events, Embassy contacts have confirmed that Tadic is to 
meet with the National Security Council on February 12 and Kostunica 
will meet with the government on February 14 to adopt a decision to 
annul any acts taken by Kosovo towards independence, the statement 
reads.  Afterwards, the government will forward its decision to the 
Parliament for its consideration and adoption, though all Embassy 
sources could only speculate on an exact date for this. 
Parliamentary Speaker Oliver Dulic's Foreign Affairs advisor, Lidija 
Vasiljevic, told poloff on February 12 that Dulic will meet with the 
parliamentary party whips on February 13, and plans are currently 
underway to arrange Tadic's inauguration on February 14.  A full 
meeting of Parliament will most likely take place on either February 
17 or 18 to discuss Kosovo, contacts in the DS, G-17 and Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) confirmed. 
 
DSS Satisfied with Deal 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) DSS Vice President Milos Aligrudic told poloff February 12 
that the government appeared to be stable now that "all major 
parties" had agreed that opposing an EU mission to Kosovo based on 
the Ahtisaari Plan was the most important issue facing Serbia. 
Aligrudic said that the DS, DSS and Radicals had all reached an 
agreement this week "at the highest levels" to delay any decision by 
Serbia on the EU's offered IPA and focus instead on "annulling 
Kosovo's declaration of independence."  Although he said the DS-DSS 
"negotiated" on this, Aligrudic only smiled with satisfaction when 
asked what the DSS had given up as part of the agreement. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Aligrudic said that the DS was in a "difficult position" 
because Tadic had said during his reelection campaign that Serbia 
would sign the IPA, but now recognized that it could not.  He said 
that because the Radicals agreed with the DSS on this, the DS "did 
not have a political majority" to sign the agreement anyway. 
Aligrudic did not seem worried about the IPA expiring, calling the 
fact that it remained on the table a "way out" for the EU and Serbia 
-- the decision to sign the IPA could be revisited at anytime. 
Aligrudic confirmed, however, that the DSS would not rescind its 
opposition so long as the EU was considering acting on the basis of 
the Ahtisaari Plan.  He said that Serbia was not hurt by its 
 
BELGRADE 00000166  002 OF 002 
 
 
decision to ignore the IPA because on "important issues" like visa 
liberalization, Serbia would "naturally" leave the Schengen 
blacklist "on its own." 
 
G-17 Out of the Loop and Frustrated 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Government coalition partner, G-17 was not consulted by 
the DS on the agreement and has remained publicly silent until it 
decides its next course of action.  Suzana Grubjesic, Chairperson of 
the G-17 Plus Parliamentary Group, told poloff on February 12 that 
her party members were "frustrated" by Tadic's decision.  She said 
she had requested a meeting with the President, scheduled for later 
that day, to get "clarity" on exactly what the DS agreed to with the 
DSS; although she admitted she expected only "political answers." 
The DS is the only party without a strategy, she said, explaining 
that it is jumping from one tactical decision to another.  She said 
the G-17 had no intentions of leaving the government "for now," 
noting that the last time the G-17 left government (September 2006) 
"nothing changed." 
 
LDP Criticizes the Deal 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Opposition party LDP continued to be vocal against the 
agreement.  Member of Parliament and member of LDP presidency Ivan 
Andric told poloff on February 12 that the government's statement 
was "unacceptable" since the interim political agreement with the 
EU, the main reason for the dispute in the ruling coalition, was not 
mentioned at all.  Andric said people from "across the political 
spectrum" could not believe that "Tadic would kill himself 
politically for this deal."  Andric said that Tadic had been 
"completely absorbed by the DSS."  He described Tadic's actions as 
an example of "Byzantine Politics" in which he "thought, talked, and 
acted differently."   Andric said the LDP would continue to call for 
extraordinary parliamentary elections 
 
Nikolic Welcomes Statement, But Says It Is Too Late 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶9.  (U) Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader, Tomislav Nikolic 
supported the government statement, but said that this agreement 
came too late, Belgrade-based Tanjug news agency reported on 
February 12. Nikolic said that the lack of unity among the ruling 
coalition and the crisis in the government "practically opened the 
door to Kosovo independence".  He admonished government for not 
performing its expected functions, stating that that the 
parliamentary session should have already been held.  "In what kind 
of country is the main news story that the President and Prime 
Minister met and that government and parliamentary sessions are to 
be held," he asked rhetorically. 
 
Kosovo the only Issue:  Start of a "Patriotic Wave" 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Parliamentarians from across the democratic spectrum 
acknowledged that Serbia's path to the EU was currently off the 
political agenda, though they disagreed on how long that would last. 
 LDP's Andric said that this could be the start of a "total defeat 
of Serbia's European future."  He said the LDP would continue to 
publicly support Serbia's immediate path to the EU, but expected 
this would become increasingly difficult, particularly after 
Parliament would vote on the government's action plan for Kosovo. 
Describing the current situation as a "wag the dog," dilemma, he 
said the DS now needed Kosovo in the forefront, or else the 
government would fall back into stalemate.  Grubjesic (G-17) 
acknowledged the EU was off the agenda, and she thought a "patriotic 
wave" would now sweep Serbia in which politicians would only discuss 
Kosovo.  She said she hoped the "wave would not be a tsunami," and 
hoped that it would not last longer than mid-March.  DS MP Konstatin 
Samofalov also admitted to poloff on February 12 that the EU path 
was "temporarily off the table" for "short term purposes" but was 
optimistic it would be a key issue again "soon." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The backdoor deal between Tadic and Kostunica appears to 
have worked once again in Kostunica's favor, placing the Kosovo 
issue squarely back on center stage at the expense of Serbia's path 
to Europe.  It is difficult to see how Tadic will be able to recover 
the EU mantle after ceding this round in the fight to the DSS. 
There is now obvious frustration not only from the opposition LDP 
but also from coalition member G-17.  Although the current political 
stalemate has now simmered down, it is hard to see how this will not 
reappear when --or if--Kosovo is removed from the government agenda. 
 End Comment. 
 
BRUSH