VZCZCXRO2089
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0148/01 0381646
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071646Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2161
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000148 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN SR XG
 
SUBJECT: MECHANISMS FOR THE FALL OF GOVERNMENT 
 
REFS:  A) BELGRADE 146   B) BELGRADE 143 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The anticipated fall of the government of Prime Minister 
Vojislav Kostunica's and rise of a successor could follow different 
trajectories.  Possible scenarios include the resignation of PM 
Kostunica, a parliamentary vote of no confidence in the government, 
and a government recommendation to the President to dissolve 
parliament and call new elections.  In all cases, a caretaker 
government would oversee the basic functions of government until 
election of a new prime minister and installation of the PM's 
cabinet.  None of these have been tested under Serbia's new 
Constitution.  In the past, Serbia's political leaders have shown a 
willingness to bend the Constitution for the sake of political 
expediency.  End Summary. 
 
Scenario I: Prime Minister Resigns 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The current government would fall if the prime minister 
resigns from Office.  Under this scenario which would set a new 
precedent for Serbia, Kostunica would simultaneously submit his 
resignation to the Speaker of Parliament and inform President Tadic. 
 According to the principal drafter of the Constitution and 
University of Belgrade Law Professor, Dragor Hiber, Parliament would 
have 30 days to confirm a new government.  During this time, the 
President will propose a candidate for Prime Minister, based upon 
the opinions of parties represented in Parliament.  The candidate 
for Prime Minister will then present his government program and 
proposed ministers to Parliament for consideration.  If Parliament 
fails to establish a new government, the President must dissolve 
Parliament and schedule elections. 
 
Scenario II: Vote of No Confidence 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The Constitution empowers Parliament, with the support of at 
least 60 deputies, to entertain a vote of no confidence in the 
government.  A request for a vote submitted, Parliament must discuss 
the proposal for the vote of no confidence at its next session, and 
no later than five days from submission of the request.  Parliament 
must discuss and vote on the proposal.  A simple majority passes the 
proposal and obligates the President to initiate proceedings for the 
formation of a new government.  As in the case of the PM's 
resignation, if the Parliament fails to confirm a new government 
within 30 days from voting no confidence, the President must 
dissolve the Parliament and schedule parliamentary elections. 
Elections must conclude no later than 60 days from the dissolution 
of Parliament. 
 
Scenario III: Government Recommendation to Dissolve Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4.  (U) Upon the proposal of the Government, the President may 
dissolve Parliament.  With the dissolution of Parliament, the 
President simultaneously schedules parliamentary elections.  The 
dissolved Parliament performs only urgent functions "stipulated by 
the Law." 
 
Scheduling Elections and Convening New Parliament 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.  (U) The Constitution stipulates that elections must be scheduled 
to end no later than 60 days from the day they are called. 
Parliament must convene, within 30 days of the certification of 
election results, and begin the process of forming a new government. 
 The installed parliament has 90 days to confirm a government. 
 
A Caretaker Government 
---------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) A caretaker cabinet governs until Parliament forms a new 
government.  According to Hiber, the law anticipates that the 
ministers empowered at the time the government falls or upon the 
dissolution of the Parliament would continue to serve in a caretaker 
capacity.  An advisor to the prime minister told poloff, however, 
that the ministers could change seats. In any event, they would 
limit operations to "basic functions" of government.  The government 
could not propose substantial laws or enter into international 
agreements, according to Hiber.  A caretaker cabinet governed Serbia 
from December 2006, through the January 2007 parliamentary 
elections, until the formation of the current coalition in May 
¶2007. 
 
Caretaker Parliament: Legal Status Uncertain 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) MP Meho Omerovic (DS) told poloff that the Law on the 
National Assembly (Parliament) defines the functions of Parliament 
 
BELGRADE 00000148  002 OF 002 
 
 
during the interim between dissolution and installation of newly 
elected deputies.  The law only exists in draft, however, pending 
adoption by Parliament.  The provision requiring a dissolved 
Parliament to perform urgent tasks did not exist under the old 
Constitution, and there is no precedent for defining these 
exigencies.  The draft law, however, defines urgent tasks to 
include: resolving mandate and immunity issues of MPs, fulfillment 
of international cooperation, resolving administrative issues 
related to MPs and other elected and appointed officials.  The draft 
law stipulates that the Speaker, Parliament General Secretary, and 
other working bodies would continue to perform other (unspecified) 
work of the Parliament.  A parliamentary working group submitted the 
draft law, at the request of the Speaker of Parliament.  It is not 
an authoritative or necessarily a final draft. 
 
 
Calling for Early Elections:  A Likely Scenario 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Hiber speculated that PM Kostunica and his government will 
convene next week to vote on whether to call new elections.  Hiber 
said that Kostunica was "trying day and night" behind the scenes to 
form a government with the Radicals, but that he has so far been 
unsuccessful.  He expected that Kostunica would fail in this effort 
and, in a meeting next week, his cabinet would vote to recommend to 
the President to dissolve Parliament.  (Government cannot go more 
than a week without convening, he noted, or breach its 
Constitutional obligations, Hiber said.  We suspect that the PM 
would argue that reported "telephone meetings" satisfy this 
obligation.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The government is stalled.  The Constitution is untested. 
The politicians themselves are puzzled.  Our best guess is that this 
unsustainable situation will eventually lead to new elections.  End 
comment. 
 
MUNTER