VZCZCXRO9757
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0142/01 0361147
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 051147Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2153
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000142 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN SR XG
 
SUBJECT: SERBIA: GOVERNMENT TEETERS AT PROSPECT OF EU ROLE IN 
KOSOVO 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The EU invitation to Serbia to sign an interim political 
agreement with EU member states has brought to the forefront the 
division between newly re-elected President Tadic and his coalition 
partner Prime Minister Kostunica over Europe, and threatens to bring 
down the government.  The process of authorizing a government 
representative to sign this agreement in Brussels on February 7 has 
forced an immediate confrontation between Tadic and Kostunica. 
Kostunica is characterizing the EU decision to send a mission to 
Kosovo and the prospect of an imminent declaration of Kosovo 
independence as threats to Serbia's territorial integrity and 
constitutional order.  While the foreign affairs apparatus tries to 
move the Interim Agreement process forward to authorize Deputy PM 
Djelic to sign the agreement, the PM has called on Parliament to 
take up both the agreement and the prospect of an EU mission to 
Kosovo.  The final step in authorizing Djelic requires the Cabinet 
to convene.  The Cabinet votes should easily line up on the side of 
the President, but the session will certainly end without PM 
endorsement and quite possibly with dissolution of the Government. 
End summary. 
 
EU Cooperation vs EU Meddling 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The signing of a political agreement on cooperation between 
Serbia and the European Union member states is set for February 7 in 
Brussels.  The Serbian Government received a copy of the agreement 
on February 4 and has set in motion the process of authorizing 
Deputy Minister Djelic to sign.  The two-part process involves a 
technical consideration and approval by a government council and a 
final authorization of the prime minister's cabinet.  The first 
review is set to take place on February 5, and MFA Political 
Director Borislav Stefanovic told poloff that the votes in this body 
line up easily in favor of signing.  The cabinet review, Stefanovic 
said, would likewise be a simple matter, since Democratic Party and 
G-17 Plus members outnumber detractors (Kostunica's Democratic Party 
of Serbia and the New Serbia Party).  At least two factors 
complicate the authorization process, however.  First, the cabinet 
generally meets on Thursdays, and the PM would need to call a 
special session in order to empower Djelic in time to travel to 
Brussels; and, second, that Kostunica is unlikely to accept the 
cabinet's approval of the authorization. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) PM Foreign Affairs Advisor Miroslav Cestovic told poloff 
that "we are looking at a distinct and clear possibility" of 
government collapse on or before February 7.  Cestovic said that 
Kostunica will not let the matter of agreement signing, which is 
being billed as a step toward European integration, be considered 
outside the "broader political picture" which included the February 
4 EU adoption of a Joint Action to deploy a mission to Kosovo. 
Kostunica opposes the deployment as a violation of the UN Charter 
and the Serbian Constitution.  Were this agreement to stand on its 
own, Cestovic said, it would be assessed differently.  Cestovic said 
that he was very pessimistic that the Government would survive the 
week; Stefanovic put the probablility at greater than not that the 
Government would fall. 
 
¶4.  (U) All Belgrade media reported on the EU decision and on 
reactions of the Serbian Government, and members of the Prime 
Ministers Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), particularly. 
Pro-government daily Politika carried the front page headline: "EU 
sends mission to Kosovo, stormy reaction from Belgrade."  According 
to Politika, DSS Education Minister Loncar said that the EU's 
decision to send simultaneously the Interim Agreement and the 
document of the EU mission to Kosovo, just one day after 
presidential elections, was an act of "naked blackmail." DSS 
spokesperson Andrija Mladenovic called the EU decision a direct 
threat on territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia.  Daily 
Vecernje Novosti ran an article, entitled "the EU mission divides 
the government," describing the substance of the EU Joint Action 
document and reported sharp reaction of the DSS ministers.  The 
front page headline of tabloid Kurir ran: "The EU 'congratulates' 
Tadic by sending a mission to Kosovo," saying that the EU act was a" 
finger in the government's eye."  Daily Blic reported that the EU 
was accelerating actions related to Kosovo, and characterized the 
EU's decision as thefirst post-presidential elections test for the 
Serbian Government. 
 
Prime Minister: EU Actions Constitute Threat to Serbia 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Kostunica issued a release on February 5 declaring that 
the EU decision to send an illegal mission to Kosovo represented a 
reliable predictor of an impending declaration of Kosovo 
independence.  The EU decision directly jeopardizes the sovereignty, 
territorial integrity, and constitutional orderer of Serbia, he 
said, and the decision on illegal deployment of an EU mission meant 
that the EU, together with Albanian separatists, was moving toward 
 
BELGRADE 00000142  002 OF 002 
 
 
Kosovo independence.  The EU proposal to sign a political agreement, 
therefore was a trick.  Serbia's signing would, in effect, be an 
endorsement of the deployment to Kosovo and of Kosovo's 
independence, making Serbia the first to recognize the state of 
Kosovo. 
 
Begin Unofficial Embassy Translation of PM Release: 
 
Public statement by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica 
 
EU's decision to send its mission to Kosovo and Metohia by violating 
the international law in order to implement Ahtisaari's rejected 
plan on independent Kosovo, represents a certain announcement that 
Albanian separatists would proclaim Province's unilateral 
independence. By this decision, EU has directly endangered 
sovereignty, territorial integrity and the Constitution of Serbia. 
Decision to send the mission means that EU and the Albanian 
separatists are creating a false Albanian state on the Serbian 
territory by violating all international regulations and rules. 
 
EU's proposal to sign a political Agreement with Serbia and at the 
same time send its mission to rip our country to pieces, is a 
delusion in which Serbia's signature on the Agreement with EU is 
actually a signature on Kosovo's independence.  In this way, Serbia 
is to become the first country that indirectly recognized 
independent Kosovo. 
 
Out of these reasons, our National Parliament should have its 
session immediately, before the proclamation of the unilateral 
independence of Kosovo. On this session, some necessary decisions 
should be adopted in accordance with the Constitution and existing 
resolutions, decisions concerning the EU's mission and the offered 
Political Agreement. 
 
Belgrade, February 5, 2008 
 
End Text. 
 
¶6.  (U) Cestovic and Stefanovic assumed that dissolution of the 
Government would ultimately lead to early parliamentary elections. 
The process of dissolving the government, establishing a caretaker 
government, and calling for elections is not yet entirely clear, and 
post will provide details septel as events unfold. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The Serbian Government is teetering.  There is a chance 
that Kostunica's demand for parliamentary consideration will provide 
the political cover he needs to agree to the signing of the EU 
agreement.  More likely, however, parliamentary debate will be hot 
and fuel the fire under Kostunica.  Boris Tadic's victory in 
Sunday's election may steel him and his pro-European DS/G-17 
colleagues to challenge the Prime Minister.  It's a game of chicken 
and the result could be government collapse. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) If the government fails, we will see an even more volatile 
political environment in Belgrade.  This prospect should not deter 
the international community from continuing to move ahead resolutely 
on Kosovo.  End Comment. 
 
MUNTER