VZCZCXRO8877
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0136/01 0351316
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041316Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2148
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000136 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: REELECTED PRESIDENT TADIC 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Serbian President Boris Tadic won reelection, February 3, 
edging out his Radical Party opponent, Tomislav Nikolic thanks to a 
large last-minute turnout.  Tadic cast the election as a referendum 
for European integration, economic recovery, and political reform, 
and a majority of the voters cast ballots for Tadic's vision of 
Serbia's future -- and out of fear of a return to bad old days 
offered by Nikolic.  Tadic was careful and humble in his acceptance 
speech, realizing how narrow was his victory.  He now faces a badly 
strained ruling coalition, Kosovo's imminent independence, and a 
citizenry, nearly half of whom did not choose him.  He will need 
help to pull this off and pull the country together.  End summary. 
 
Preliminary  Results 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The Serbian National Election Commission (the RIK) called 
the February 3 presidential election for Democratic Party candidate 
and incumbent President Boris Tadic.  With over 90% of the vote 
counted, the RIK's preliminary results gave Tadic 50.6% of the vote 
to Nikolic's 47.7%.  Final figures must be public by February 7, and 
RIK officials expect to release them no earlier than February 6, 
allowing time for parties to file official complaints of election 
proceedings.  Nikolic's concession speech and the 120,000 votes 
separating the candidates make such complaints unlikely. 
 
Inauguration Date TBD 
--------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) There is no decision yet on the timing of the presidential 
inauguration.  Serbia's Constitution and Law on the President are 
silent on the matter, and while it has been customary to swear in 
new presidents two weeks after election, Tadic's office suggests 
there is more flexibility in the case of a reelected head of state. 
According to Deputy Chief of Staff Milan Petrovic, Tadic's 
inauguration might coincide with Serbian State Day on February 15. 
 
Sky-High Turnout; Deeply Divided Electorate 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Approximately 67% of all eligible Serbians turned out to 
vote in this election, confirming their recognition that the 
election represented a choice of direction for the country.  Tadic 
won reelection with approximately 2.28 million votes.  In his 
acceptance speech, Tadic told the Serbian people that they had won, 
and he pledged, as he had throughout the campaign, to lead Serbia 
toward European integration, to fight corruption, and to work for a 
better standard of living and economy.  Slightly more than 47% of 
the voters, or about 2.18 million Serbian citizens, however, voted 
for a change and would have let Nikolic lead the way.  Acknowledging 
the importance of his opponent's performance, Tadic said he intended 
to meet with Tomislav Nikolic soon. 
 
No Honeymoon 
------------ 
 
¶5.  (U) Fulfilling Tadic's reform agenda and European perspective is 
beyond the scope the powers invested in Serbia's presidency, and 
Tadic will require the cooperation of the Government and parliament 
to make good on his campaign promises.  Despite the Democratic 
Party's superior numbers in parliament, until this campaign Tadic 
has allowed Prime Minister Kostunica inordinate authority that his 
small Democratic Party of Serbia did not justify on the basis of 
numbers, alone.  That Tadic twice defied Kostunica during the 
campaign (calling the elections before Kosovo declared independence 
and refusing to sign an annex to the coalition agreement that would 
annul a stabilization and association agreement with the European 
Union over Kosovo) and went on to win reelection without DSS help at 
best may have changed the balance of power within the coalition.  At 
worst, it exposed a ruling coalition whose fractures may prove 
fatal. 
 
Testing the Coalition 
--------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) The first test of the coalition comes on February 7, when 
Serbia and the EU are to sign in Brussels what some have dubbed "SAA 
lite."  Deputy Prime Minister Djelic will likely be authorized to 
sign the agreement that will establish a framework for discussions 
on relaxed visa requirements, trade, culture, and education.  The 
agreement is an important, symbolic step toward signing a 
Stabilization and Association Agreement with the European Union that 
Tadic announced in the final days of his campaign he would take in a 
matter of weeks.  If he means to deliver on this promise, Tadic will 
either first have to deliver fugitive indictees of the International 
Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia, especially Gen. Ratko Mladic, or 
overcome the EU's insistence that he do. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Taking this step toward Europe and making good on a 
campaign promise even before his new term in office begins will give 
 
BELGRADE 00000136  002 OF 002 
 
 
Tadic necessary bankable credits to deal with Kosovo independence -- 
the next test of Tadic's presidency.  The presidential election 
campaign unfortunately linked European integration to Kosovo. 
Nikolic's campaign message insisted that the EU was not Serbia's 
reward for Kosovo independence; Kostunica demanded, in effect, that 
Serbia forswear EU membership if the EU acknowledges Kosovo 
independence; and Tadic swore never to recognize Kosovo.  This 
rhetoric ensures that Serbia will keep the matter in the 
international courts, even while events on the ground move 
irreversibly forward.  We expect that it also ensures a rocky 
stretch of road for U.S.-Serbian relations.  In conversations with 
the Ambassador, this fall, the president insinuated that the 
government would execute reprisals against governments that 
recognized independence and he urged the United States to be patient 
and the Ambassador to be in close contact with him to enable the 
bilateral relationship to survive the difficult time ahead. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) All this could lead to a show-down with Kostunica.  Even 
before the run-off, former foreign minister Goran Svilanovic on 
January 30 told poloff that some DS members had tried to pressure 
Kostunica to resign prior to the election for failing to endorse 
Tadic.  Svilanovic said that the DS and DSS would never work 
together again.  The coalition breakup would lead to new 
parliamentary elections, he said, because it would be impossible to 
form a democratic government excluding Kostunica, as long as he 
remained in parliament.  In new elections, Svilanovic expected DSS 
would not rise above the 5% threshold necessary to claim seats in 
parliament.  Others suggested that parliamentary elections might 
coincide with already scheduled May 11 local and municipal 
elections. 
 
Truth and Reconciliation 
------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (U) That more than two million voters ignored Nikolic's 
association with the regime responsible for misery, death, and 
displacement throughout the Balkans exposes a serious vulnerability 
of Serbian democracy (not to mention a significant failing of the 
Serbian school curriculum that doesn't even cover the wars).  On the 
eve of the election, educated Serbs who planned to vote for Tadic 
tried to convince the DCM that the Serbs had done nothing wrong in 
Bosnia.  Analogous ignorance and denial shapes Serbs' understanding 
of Kosovo history and informs their passionate self-righteousness in 
insisting on the territorial integrity of Serbia.  President Tadic 
should exercise his offices to lead Serbia to acknowledge, 
reconcile, and not forget its past. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (U) Tadic needs to shake off his traditional passivity to face 
a restive electorate, legitimate charges that he tolerates 
corruption, and the challenges of managing Kosovo's impending 
independence.  We need to help him face up to these challenges and 
then turn a new page in Serbia's relations with the west.  It will 
take deft coordination with our European allies and long-term 
commitment in areas such as business and rule of law to make this 
happen.  But thanks to Tadic's victory, we at least have a chance to 
make this investment in Serbia's future.  End comment. 
 
MUNTER