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DE RUEHBW #0132/01 0342059
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 032059Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2145
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000132 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN VOTERS TURN OUT IN RECORD NUMBERS TO REELECT 
PRESIDENT 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Record numbers of voters on both sides of a deeply polarized 
electorate headed to the polls February 3 to elect Serbia's next 
president, choosing Democratic incumbent Boris Tadic over his 
Radical Party opponent Tomislav Nikolic.  Preliminary results put 
Tadic 100,000 votes ahead of Nikolic, and the Tadic camp declared 
victory.  Final results will come later, but it appears certain that 
voters opted for Tadic's promise of a prosperous European future. 
Embassy teams traveling throughout Serbia reported steady flows of 
voters at polling stations, energized and optimistic campaign staffs 
at party headquarters, few polling station irregularities before the 
end of the vote, and no certainty about who would win.  The votes 
are still coming in and the results are expected to be close, quite 
possibly too close to call today.  Post's analysis of the numeric 
results of the election outcome will follow septel on February 4. 
This cable will report on election atmospherics and observations 
from the field.  End summary. 
 
Number Crunching 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Serbia's presidential runoff, February 3, drew an apparent 
record turnout.  Serbia's Center for Free Elections and Democracy 
(CeSID) estimated that over 4.4 million voters or 68% of the total 
eligible voters had cast ballots.  By 5pm in the count had already 
exceeded by 300 thousand the total votes cast in the 2004 runoff 
between the same candidates.  CeSID told emboff before the polls 
closed that the last hours of voting that he witnessed an "explosion 
of voting."  Only strong participation of voters from the Liberal 
Democratic opposition party and DS coalition partners New Serbia and 
the Democratic Party of Serbia, he said, could account for such 
numbers.  (Note: This is ironic, considering their leader's weak 
support for Tadic during the campaign.) 
 
¶3.  (U) Early in the day, Radical Party General Secretary Vucic told 
one ceSID official that he anticipated 4.2 million votes would give 
the election to Tadic.  Conventional wisdom likewise says that good 
weather (like on this election day) and high turnout would favor 
Tadic, on the assumption that the Radicals have an upper ceiling of 
2.1 million votes.  But if recent experience has contradicted 
informed wisdom on the matter of Serbian elections, it has taught 
that there is no guessing either the Radicals' upper limit or what 
will bring the Democrats to the polls.  Emboffs who called on 
Radical headquarters, in Belgrade and throughout Serbia, in the late 
afternoon noted that the party members looked anxious and heard that 
Vucic had canceled a television interview. 
 
Meet the Radicals 
----------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Outside Belgrade early in the day, the Radical Party (SRS) 
was generally more confident.  Post used the opportunity of this 
election to increase our exposure to the Radicals and theirs to us. 
Several Embassy teams reported the Radicals' surprise to receive us 
in their headquarters, but, with a few exceptions, the SRS party 
workers were willing to share their enthusiasm about the election 
and concerns about the future.  In Kursumlija, a town where 50% of 
the residents are from Kosovo, polling station officials from both 
parties worked well together, were well organized, and friendly to 
Embassy visitors.  Just outside the central Serbia city of Nis, in 
Novo Selo, a small town built around a large maximum-security 
prison, they were less welcoming.  The Novo Selo polling place had 
opened late to allow DS officials to remove Nikolic posters that had 
gone up overnight on the wall of the polling station.  A CeSID 
observer told Embassy's team that the SRS chairman of the station 
had had barred him from the station for an hour, until a call from 
Belgrade gained him access.  The polling chairperson had warned that 
he would not allow U.S. or UK observers to enter.  The threat proved 
idle.  While he did not talk to the U.S. personnel, he did not 
attempt to prevent them from entering. 
 
¶5.  (U) Embassy's team received a cold reception at the SRS 
headquarters in the southern city of Vranje.  The SRS campaign 
workers accused the Democratic Party (DS) of "buying votes" with 
care packages for the needy in nearby poor villages.  The SRS main 
concern, however, was that the United States might not recognize an 
SRS victory.  They said that the USG had supported the Democratic 
Party challenge of vote manipulation in the 1990s (referring to 
Milosevic's attempt to falsify the results and steal the 1996 
election)and that the United States whould do the same on their 
behalf in this election. 
 
¶6.  (U) Radicals in Novi Pazar, the capital of the majority Muslim 
Sandzak region, took the opportunity of their first meeting with 
Americans to blame the USG for Serbia's troubles with Kosovo.  Where 
the USG meddles, "there is trouble," they said.  Moving beyond 
Kosovo, the SRS principal concerns were corruption and the 
divisiveness of Sandzak's Islamic communities -- a rift, they said, 
that promoted the growth of Islamic fundamentalism.  In the smaller, 
 
BELGRADE 00000132  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
Radical-dominated villages near Novi Pazar, the turnout was steady, 
if small, and the reception hospitable.  In the mountain town of 
Sjenica, which the Bosnian Muslim residents (and presumed DS voters) 
claimed was the coldest town in Europe, representatives of the NGO 
FLORES also identified the political tension between Muslim groups 
as their biggest worry. 
 
Few Election Irregularities 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) There were few reports of election irregularities and none 
that would affect the outcome of the election.  National media 
reported "an incident" in the south Serbia town of Bujanovac. 
Poloff in the vicinity, inquiring further, determined that the 
matter involved a man casting a ballot for his wife, who waited 
outside the polling station.  DS MP Nenad Konstantinovic told us 
that in Prokuplje, near the Kosovo border, voting ceased temporarily 
in one station when the SRS pollwatcher was observed handing three 
ballots to a voter.  A subsequent count of the ballots in the box 
against the number of individuals having voted oddly showed five 
ballots missing.  Konstantinovic also said that he expected the 
Radicals to challenge up to four thousand ballots in one town of 
voters, who had been unable to produce their identification number 
and been allowed to vote.  (Konstantinovic maintained that election 
law permitted this.) 
 
Counting Concerns 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Rumors are rampant that the Radicals might disrupt the vote 
count if it appeared they were doing poorly.  Vojvodina Social 
Democratic Party leader Nenad Canak told poloff that the Tadic camp 
would declare victory by 10pm, regardless of the official 
announcement, to get the jump on the Radicals.  Canak expressed 
concern that, if the SRS filed a large number of complaints 
contesting the outcome, the National Election Commission the (RIK) 
might be unable to respond within the requisite 48 hours.  In that 
case, he said, there would be a second runoff election and an 
opportunity for the SRS to increase their turnout. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
Immediately following the announcement of preliminary results, a 
commentator on Radio Television Serbia Channel 1, asked what the 
election proved, replied that it proved that Kosovo is a dead issue. 
 The large turnout also demonstrated Serbian citizen's awareness of 
the high stakes in this election.  Although the majority of Serbians 
chose a reformist leader who would take them west, there is 
obviously an enormous segment of the population that would have 
chosen otherwise.  They will remain a force to be reckoned with by 
Serbia's democratic parties (with help from their U.S. and European 
friends), who must address their interests and prevent them from 
leading Serbia astray or stalling Serbia's progress.  End Comment 
MUNTER