VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0227/01 0501009
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191009Z FEB 08
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8149
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 7842
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 9103

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000227 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S UN REFERENDA, U.S.-CHINA 
RELATIONS 
 
¶1. Summary:  As Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to 
report on the March presidential poll and the UN referenda, news 
coverage on February 16-19 also focused on the "Taiwan Goal," a 
defense industry company the DPP administration has recently set up 
to coordinate the business of U.S.-Taiwan arms deals; on the 
shooting of a former legislator; and on Kosovo's declaration of 
independence.  In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial 
in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" urged the Taiwan public to 
vote and pass the two UN referenda proposed by the DPP and the KMT 
respectively.  The article said the passage of the UN referenda will 
push the international community to start reviewing and revising the 
unrealistic one-China policy.  An editorial in the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taipei Times" also chimed in by urging Taiwan 
voters to put aside politics and vote for the two UN referenda.  A 
separate "Taipei Times" editorial commented on Beijing's response to 
the alleged Chinese espionage case and concluded that "the Chinese, 
by virtue of their actions or habits, are close to spoiling for a 
'Cold War.'"  A "Taipei Times" op-ed, written by an Australian 
writer, discussed China's rise and said it is "bound to cause 
turbulence and strife in the years to come, with the US seeking to 
hold its position as the reigning superpower."  End summary. 
 
¶2. Taiwan's UN Referenda 
 
A) "[The Island's] Bids to Join or Re-join the UN are a Common Wish 
Shared by the Taiwan People" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 720,000] 
editorialized (2/16): 
 
"... The DPP's and the KMT's moves to push for Taiwan to join and to 
re-join the UN, respectively, are both based on the fact that the 
island's UN bid has become a consensus among the majority of the 
Taiwan people and that both referenda have reflected the wish of 
mainstream public opinion.  This newspaper has asserted many times 
in its editorials that the two UN referenda are aimed at maintaining 
Taiwan's independent sovereignty, which is the least common 
denominator for the island and is consistent with the interests of 
all Taiwan people.  Currently, some countries are either opposed to 
or do not support Taiwan's UN referenda.  This is mainly because of 
the obstruction created by China, but by no means does it indicate 
that the UN referenda were wrong. ... 
 
"If the two UN referenda fail to pass simply because of the 
hindrance caused by external force, it will be akin to sending a 
signal to the international community that, if the Taiwan people 
want to decide their own destiny in the future, the move will be 
strongly boycotted by the external force which opposes such a 
decision.  This is because the experience to suppress Taiwan's UN 
referenda [this time] will mislead others to believe that, as long 
as they sustain their suppression, the Taiwan people will yield and 
give up Taiwan-centric values.  As it stands now, whether or not the 
UN referenda can pass will have a significant influence on Taiwan's 
future.  No one should overlook such an influence simply because the 
referenda are to be held in tandem with the presidential poll.  All 
the more, no political party should play the role of an inside 
traitor that neuters the free will of the Taiwan people. ... 
 
"Taiwan's democratic progress, from the direct vote of its 
president, the entire reshuffle of its legislative bodies, to the 
peaceful transfer of power, has fully highlighted that Taiwan is an 
independent, sovereign state, and that the Taiwan people are 
unanimous in maintaining such a status quo.  It is a pity that, 
given the interference of the Chinese factor, the international 
community has yet to accept Taiwan, which thus cannot become a 
normal country.  Under such circumstances, the referenda for Taiwan 
to join or re-join the UN are akin to having shouldered the 
responsibility of pushing for Taiwan to become a normal country. 
Should the referenda succeed in passing, it will deal a heavy blow 
to the fictitious one-China principle, and the international 
community will face up to such a reality and start reviewing and 
revising the unrealistic one-China policy. ..." 
 
B) "Putting Politics Aside for the Best" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (2/17): 
 
"While who wins the upcoming presidential election carries a lot of 
weight for Taiwan's future, what happens with the UN referendums 
will also affect the nation's path.  If a referendum passes, it will 
have an enormous impact on Taiwanese foreign relations: China will 
threaten to implement the 'Anti-Secession' Law, flex its military 
muscles and apply pressure on the US, Japan and the EU to express 
opposition.  If neither referendum passes, the international 
community might interpret it as a sign that the Taiwanese public has 
little desire -- or is downright opposed -- to joining or returning 
to the UN. Consequently, the doors of the UN could be closed for 
RELATIONS 
 
good, bringing a calamity for Taiwan, a scenario of total defeat. 
... 
 
"If the DPP and KMT have the nation's interests in mind, they should 
encourage voters to vote for both UN referendums. That will 
neutralize their effect on the election and create a win-win 
solution. If the KMT refuses to support the DPP referendum, then a 
solution to minimize damage should be adopted. The parties could 
come to a consensus and put forward a third choice, a replacement 
referendum, through the legislature. But time is short and this 
possibility is waning." 
 
¶2. U.S.-China Relations 
 
A) "Awaiting a 'Hot' Cold War" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (2/18): 
 
"When Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Liu Jianchao insisted at a 
press conference last week that China does not spy on the US and 
that Washington should get rid of its 'Cold War thinking' on the 
subject, an obvious response to his first claim was this: Do Liu and 
his bosses think Americans are complete idiots?  As for the second 
claim, a more complex question follows: Given Beijing's willingness 
to use threatening language against Taiwan (officially) and 
Washington (unofficially, through media outlets and former officials 
or military figures), why are US-China relations not already being 
discussed in terms of a new cold war? 
"The 'Cold War' reference is dubious and there are a number of 
reasons for this. Unlike the Soviet Union at the height of its 
power, China cannot begin to compete with the US militarily in 
global terms. But it does wish to compete in -- with a view to 
dominate -- the region. This is not necessarily interpreted by US 
politicians as hostile, especially given the mythology that has 
developed over Chinese history and its entitlement to 'great power' 
status. ...  None of this changes the fact that the Chinese, by 
virtue of their actions and habits, are close to spoiling for a 
'Cold War.' It is simply a function of time, wisdom and inclination 
as to when the Americans appreciate that a China under Communist 
Party control cannot take any other route, despite the Orwellian 
blusterings of its spokesmen." 
B) "China's Rise Will Mean Turbulence" 
Sushil Seth, a writer based in Australia, opined in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (2/19): 
"The point is that China's rise is a great challenge for the world, 
especially the US, as the former has ambitions to overtake the 
latter as the world's only superpower.  With the US mired in Iraq 
and elsewhere, China has used its time and resources well to expand 
its political and economic clout, even right into the US backyard of 
South America.  One would hope that the US is aware of China's 
rearguard action. But being already over-stretched, the US is keen 
to maximize the area of political cooperation on Iran, North Korea 
and elsewhere.  Washington is, therefore, inclined to overstate the 
mutuality of interest, and underplay differences and concerns from 
China.  But this situation is unlikely to last as China becomes even 
more ambitious and the US starts to clearly see the danger. ... 
"In other words, China's rise is bound to cause turbulence and 
strife in the years to come, with the US seeking to hold its 
position as the reigning superpower.  There is, however, a view that 
China can be accommodated peacefully in the world order, because the 
existing system has been kind to it as evidenced by its economic 
growth and growing political status. Therefore, it will have no 
reason to subvert or sabotage it.  But with China's growing 
ambitions, it is unlikely to be satisfied with incremental benefits 
accruing to it from a system that was devised by others to maintain 
and sustain their supremacy.  Beijing will want to put its own stamp 
on the system and to maximize its own goals and ambitions of global 
supremacy. ... 
"If China manages to remain stable and continues to grow (a big if, 
considering its multiple problems), it will also have the potential 
to play power politics with the global system, including between the 
US and Europe.  The idea that China will play its role within an 
existing international order crafted and controlled by dominant 
Western powers seems a bit overdrawn, if not an outright case of 
wishful thinking.  It would make more sense to treat China as a 
power keen to reshape the global order by putting itself in the 
center. China will take this direction as its power grows.  And this 
will mean strife and turbulence. And countries like the US and 
others with high stakes in the existing international order will 
have no option but to confront the new danger from a resurgent 
China." 
YOUNG