VZCZCXRO0884
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0026/01 0140319
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140319Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6858
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY 0068

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000026 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
MOSCOW FOR KIM SVEC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AM EAGR
SUBJECT: ARMENIA: UPDATE ON THE SPREAD OF AFRICAN SWINE 
FEVER 
 
REF: A. YEREVAN 01193 
     ¶B. YEREVAN 01120 
 
-------- 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) As of Mid-December 2007, approximately 14,000 swine 
had died or been culled in Armenia due to ASF, according to 
government estimates.  Post confirmed reports of outbreak in 
four regions in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh.  The Government 
has been slow to react to the spreading virus despite the 
warnings and assistance of the international community.  The 
failure of the GOAM's compensation program for farmers 
affected by the outbreak could become an election issue.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
New ASF Commission Established 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) On December 17, Poloff met with Deputy Minister of 
Agriculture Levon Rukhyan to inquire about the Armenian 
government's efforts to combat the spread of ASF since 
receiving recommendations from UN/FAO as outlined in reftel 
and in fulfillment of the action plan agreed to by Prime 
Minister Sargsyan during his October visit to Washington for 
the U.S. Armenia Economic Task Force (USATF) meeting. 
Rukhyan informed Poloff that he continues to chair the GOAM's 
ASF Task Force that meets daily to discuss the outbreak and 
assured Poloff that his Ministry had a good handle on the 
situation.  In addition, Rukhyan stated that an ASF 
Commission had been created in September as a means to 
facilitate discussions and coordination at a higher level. 
This commission is comprised of the heads of the various 
stake-holder Ministries, the Deputy Prime Minister who acts 
as chairman, and the governors of the regions (Marzs). 
 
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New Outbreaks 
------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Rukhyan confirmed that there had been new outbreaks 
in Kotayk and Ararat Marzs and that the ASF Task Force had 
responded accordingly, dispatching representatives to oversee 
containment.  In the case of Kotayk Marz, the outbreak 
consisted of one farm in which 110 swine had been culled.  In 
Ararat Marz, again one farm had been affected and 
approximately 300 swine culled.  According to Rukhyan, the 
Ministry of Agriculture has also established decontamination 
checkpoints surrounding the outbreak villages in Kotayk and 
Ararat. 
 
¶4.  (U) Rukhyan acknowledged that the outbreak was still a 
problem in Lori and Tavush Marzs and that a quarantine was 
still in place there.  In total, he estimated that 14,000 
swine had either died or been culled by mid-December not 
including the 3-4,000 swine that had been affected in the 
breakaway, Armenian-controlled Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) region 
of Azerbaijan.  In response to the N-K outbreak, the Ministry 
of Agriculture had banned all pork imports and installed 
checkpoints at relevant points of entry.  In spite of the 
rising number of infected swine, Deputy Minister Rukhyan 
claimed that the number of reported cases had declined since 
the onset of winter. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Inconsistent Application of Safety Measures 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) When Poloff mentioned reports of unmanned 
checkpoints and empty disinfectant pools, Rukhyan 
acknowledged that not all inspectors were as vigilant as he 
was about the problem, and that he had personally driven to a 
number of checkpoints to observe their procedures.  Rukhyan 
also implied that the lack of vigilance was a reflection of 
the overall fatigue visible within the GOAM and populace of 
hearing that ASF was an "emergency" issue. 
 
¶6.  (U) Rukhyan stated that the GOAM had been very pleased 
with the support it had received to date from USAID and the 
USDA in establishing regional support centers that assisted 
in the distribution of information about ASF to the local 
populace.  However, he cited a recent incident of when he had 
to personally pull an ASF-affected carcass from a stream as 
evidence that much of the rural populace had yet to read the 
materials. 
 
 
YEREVAN 00000026  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
---------------------------------- 
Ministry of Agriculture's Response 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In response to Poloff's questions about the 
implementation of reftel UN/FAO action plan, Rukhyan stated 
that they were not implementing the plan but rather working 
with the local USDA office while pursuing a policy of 
financial compensation for those farmers with affected swine. 
 However, as of Mid-December the GOAM had yet to receive some 
750,000 USD inherited from the World Bank's previous Avian 
Influenza (WBAI) program in Armenia and therefore could not 
proceed with the compensation plan.  As a result, many 
farmers who had been forced to cull swine were upset and this 
was becoming an election issue.  In addition, Rukhyan stated 
that his ministry was attempting to keep pork prices low by 
giving fines to pork speculators.  According to Rukhyan, the 
ban on Armenian pork exports to Russia was also helping to 
maintain price stability since all Armenian meat had to stay 
in country. 
 
--------------------------- 
USDA Estimates and Concerns 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Post's resident USDA experts estimate that as of 
mid-December the total number of swine that had died or been 
culled in Armenia because of ASF was approximately 11,000. 
However, their estimate on the number of swine affected in 
N-K was as much as 9,000 dead or culled, much greater than 
the figure stated by the Armenian Ministry of Agriculture. 
According to USDA's contacts with connections to N-K , the 
GOAM was using all available resources including those 
provided by the World Bank, UN/FAO, and USAID to assist the 
N-K outbreak.  (NOTE:  The breakaway Azerbaijani region of 
Nagorno-Karabakh is controlled by the self-declared "Republic 
of Nagorno Karabakh" or "NKR" authorities.  While the "NKR" 
is formally separate from the Republic of Armenia, there are 
considerable political and economic ties between the "NKR" 
and Armenia proper.  USG personnel are restricted from 
visiting N-K.  END NOTE) 
 
¶9.  (U) ASF has also reached farms near Yerevan, and has even 
affected the personal menagerie of Armenian oligarch Gagik 
Tsaroukyan in a Yerevan suburb.  USDA representatives blame 
 
SIPDIS 
the continued spread of the virus on poor implementation of 
the quarantine and non-compliance with the agricultural 
recommendations made at the USATF conference in October. 
Vehicular decontamination points and meat inspections are 
either non-existent or poorly functioning.  There should be 
an economic payoff, however, for those  independent farmers 
that successfully protect their herds with rigorous 
sanitation and containment practices, as only they will be in 
a position to bring safe meat to market when prices rise. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The GOAM's lack of capacity and resolve to respond 
effectively to the ASF outbreak is evident in the increasing 
number of affected swine in Armenia and neighboring 
Nagorno-Karabakh.  While the onset of winter may have 
temporarily slowed the virus' spread due to snow covering the 
contaminated soil and reduced inter-actions between 
mountainous rural areas, an accelerated resurgence of the 
virus could appear after the spring thaw.  Furthermore, post 
questions to what extent Armenia's poor handling of the ASF 
outbreak could reflect on its ability to combat epidemics 
that are harmful to humans such as Avian Influenza.  The 
failure to date of the GOAM's compensation plan does not 
augur well for farmers' continued and future cooperation with 
government-ordered biosecurity measures, in addition to 
potentially becoming a political liability for the government 
in rural areas. 
FRAZIER