VZCZCXRO3780
OO RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHVN #0010/01 0030958
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030958Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1736
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 0120
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENTIANE 000010 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHITE HOUSE FOR DIR ONDCP 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID LA SNAR
SUBJECT: WHERE HAVE ALL THE FLOWERS GONE? 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  The USG estimate of poppy cultivation in 
Laos for 2007 is 1100 hectares, down from 43,150 hectares in 
¶1989.  Laos, at one time the world's third largest producer 
of illicit opium, stands poised to end its tenure as a part 
of the golden triangle.  After an investment of more than 18 
years and forty million dollars, U.S. counter narcotics 
programs in Laos have helped bring about a 97.4 percent 
decrease in production.  Poppy cultivation is now only 100 
hectares above the majors threshold (set by law at 1000). 
Production could drop further if these efforts can be 
sustained and if the thousands of former growers, now in dire 
economic circumstances, can be persuaded not to resume the 
only way they know to make a living.  A final infusion of 
alternative development assistance could address the latter 
issue; absent that, this victory remains tenuous at best. 
End Summary. 
 
Laos:  The Great Unheralded Victory in the War On Drugs 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) From the late 1980's until 2005, Laos was the third 
largest producer of opium poppy in the world.  Significant 
poppy cultivation took place in about ten of 17 provinces, 
and authorities took no significant action against it, though 
they did tax opium until the mid 1990's.  Laos exported 
significant quantities of heroin to world markets including 
the U.S., and was home to the world's largest number of users 
of unprocessed opium.  In 1989, when U.S. counternarcotics 
programs began in Laos, the USG estimated poppy cultivation 
in Laos at 43,150 hectares. 
 
¶3.  (U) Today, cultivation is estimated at 1100 hectares, a 
97.4% decrease from project inception.  Production has 
declined precipitously since 2002, according to USG estimates: 
 
Year               Hectares 
2002                23,200 
2003                18,900 
2004                10,000 
2005                 5,600 
2006                 1,700 
2007                 1,100 
 
Laos has been on the USG list of major illicit drug source 
countries since that list was created in 1987.  This year, 
Laos has the potential, after a 20-year tenure on the list, 
to finally drop off.  A decline of but 100 hectares could 
achieve this and complete the collapse of the golden triangle 
region to a single source country: Burma.  Opium production 
in Laos is now entirely for the domestic demand generated by 
the vestige of its once widespread addict population; 
commercial production for export is a thing of the past. 
Most interesting of all, this was achieved almost entirely 
through alternative development programs and drug education, 
without any coordinated national effort at involuntary 
eradication. 
 
Changing the Culture of Opium Production in Laos 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶4.  (U) The rapid decline in Laos' opium production has come 
in combination with a change in attitudes about opium 
cultivation in the rural upland districts where it was grown 
for decades.  Thanks in part to U.S.-supported opium 
awareness campaigns, poppy cultivation is no longer the 
acceptable activity that it once was.  In districts where 
opium fields were planted along the roads only a few years 
ago, growers are now scorned, and even the remotest fields 
are cut if detected by local authorities.  Opium has gone 
from being a major albeit illicit crop common throughout 
northern Laos to something planted only by the desperate in 
very small and well concealed patches. 
 
Conclusion:  Can It Last? 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U)  This is clearly positive, but Lao officials, foreign 
experts, and poppy growers all express concern that it may 
not be possible for the GOL to sustain.  The GOL estimates 
that half or more of all former poppy growers have yet to 
receive any significant assistance from any source to 
establish alternative livelihoods.  The World Food Program 
 
VIENTIANE 00000010  002 OF 002 
 
 
reports that, in a number of communities formerly dependent 
on poppy, serious and widespread food security issues have 
emerged this year.  In announcing the UNODC poppy survey 
results for 2007, the UNODC Country Director and the Chairman 
of the Lao National Commission for Drug Control and 
Supervision (LCDC) both expressed concern that the needs of 
this population cannot be effectively addressed, there are 
grounds for serious concern that farmers might be compelled 
to revert to poppy cultivation or starve. 
McGeehan