VZCZCXRO5848
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #0035/01 0070814
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070814Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0769
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 7714
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5318
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 8983
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 4007
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5936
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0949
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7017
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 7677

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 15 TOKYO 000035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01/07/08 
 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Poll on political situation, global warming (Mainichi) 
 
(2) Scope column: LDP's Machimura faction concentrates efforts on 
strengthening capabilities by enlisting think-tank for policy 
proposals; building network of contacts in U.S., Europe, China; 
creating own website; and broadcasting its general meeting live 
(Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(3) Next Lower House election: LDP, DPJ aiming at enemy's strong 
constituencies; LDP to place emphasis on organized votes, DPJ on 
urban areas (Mainichi) 
 
(4) Eco-war: Japan hard-pressured to come up with measures against 
climate change (Asahi) 
 
(5) Farm produce growing areas could change drastically nationwide 
due to global warming: Agriculture ministry to speed up studies on 
countermeasures; Tangerines go off more quickly while in storage; 
Vegetable prices collapse due to concentrated shipment time (Tokyo 
Shimbun) 
 
(6) Japan-U.S. defense interests (Part B) (Sentaku) 
 
(7) Next midterm defense buildup plan to be frontloaded (Nikkei) 
 
(8) U.S. nuclear-powered submarines made 48 port calls in Japan in 
2007; Okinawa's White Beach most frequently visited (Akahata) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Poll on political situation, global warming 
 
MAINICHI (Page 8&9) (Full) 
January 6, 2008 
 
Questions & Answers 
(T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female) 
 
Q: It is said that the House of Representatives is highly likely to 
be resolved for a general election in 2008. Are you interested in 
the next election for the House of Representatives? 
 
 T P M F 
Very interested 39  48 31 
Somewhat interested 43  39 45 
Not very interested 11  7 14 
Not interested at all 3  3 3 
 
Q: Which political party between the Liberal Democratic Party and 
the Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto) would you like to see win 
in the House of Representatives election? 
 
 T P M F 
LDP 33  31 34 
DPJ 46  55 38 
Other political parties 13  8 16 
 
Q: In the election for the House of Representatives, 300 persons 
will be elected from single-seat constituencies and 180 from 11 
proportional representation blocs across the nation. Which one do 
 
TOKYO 00000035  002 OF 015 
 
 
you think is important? 
 
 T P M F 
Single-seat constituencies 68  74 62 
Proportional representation 21  20 21 
 
Q: What do you think is most important when you vote for candidates 
in the House of Representatives election? 
 
 T P M F 
Personal character 15  15 15 
Image 3  4 3 
Career, actual results 9  8 9 
Policy 51  54 49 
Their political parties 11  13 9 
Request from acquaintances, relatives 2  1 2 
 
Q: What would you like elected politicians to pursue first? 
 
 T P M F 
Policies for the whole nation 62  64 60 
Ties with senior government officials, political party executives 4 
4 4 
Contribution to home constituencies 27  27 26 
 
Q: Do you think the government has changed in nature with Prime 
Minister Shinzo Abe going out and Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda coming 
in? 
 
 T P M F 
Changed for the better 14  15 12 
Changed for the worse 11  14 8 
No change 68  67 69 
 
Q: A United Nations conference on global warming was held from Dec. 
3 in Bali, Indonesia. Are you interested in the issue of global 
warming? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 89  92 88 
No 4  5 4 
 
 
Q: What do you think about global warming? 
 
 T P M F 
I have a strong sense of crisis 33  34 31 
I have a vague feeling of anxiety 38  37 39 
I believe we can overcome it 21  23 19 
It's a natural phenomenon, so we don't have to worry 2  2 2 
 
Q: It is said that global warming will have various effects. What is 
the matter of primary concern to you? 
 
 T P M F 
Midsummer heat 7  7 8 
Abnormal climate like a heavy rain 27  26 28 
Water, food shortages 29  31 27 
Sea level rise 16  19 13 
Animal, plant extinction 12  11 12 
 
Q: What do you do to prevent global warming? Pick only one. 
 
TOKYO 00000035  003 OF 015 
 
 
 
 T P M F 
Set moderate air conditioning 32  29 34 
Turn off TV and lights when unused 22  24 21 
Abstain from using a car 9  13 6 
Don't ask for plastic shopping bags at stores 16  10 20 
Buy energy-saving electric appliances 7  9 5 
Do nothing in particular 7  10 4 
 
Q: There is an argument calling for an environmental tax to curtail 
greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. Do you support 
this initiative? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 47  51 43 
No 42  41 42 
 
Q: The Kyoto Protocol, which sets greenhouse gas reduction goals, 
mandates Japan to cut 6 PERCENT  of its CO2 emissions from 1990 
levels. There is a view saying the people will need to lower their 
current standard of living so as to attain the goal. Can you do so? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 49  51 48 
No 41  42 40 
 
Q: What do you think Japan should do to attain its Kyoto Protocol 
CO2 reduction goal? 
 
 T P M F 
Hold down CO2 emissions even at the sacrifice of economic growth 14 
14 13 
Subsidize wind- and solar-power generation 41  44 39 
Subsidize afforestation 29  28 29 
Buy emission credit from foreign countries 3  3 2 
No need to attain the goal at any sacrifice 4  4 4 
 
Q: It is said that atomic power generation is effective to prevent 
global warming. Do you support the idea of building more atomic 
power plants? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 39  50 29 
No 50  43 56 
 
(Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "No answer" 
omitted. 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Dec. 15-16 over the 
telephone across the nation on a computer-aided random digit 
sampling (RDS) basis. Answers were obtained from 1,528 persons. 
 
(2) Scope column: LDP's Machimura faction concentrates efforts on 
strengthening capabilities by enlisting think-tank for policy 
proposals; building network of contacts in U.S., Europe, China; 
creating own website; and broadcasting its general meeting live 
 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
January 3, 2008 
 
Miyuki Ando 
 
TOKYO 00000035  004 OF 015 
 
 
 
The Machimura faction, the largest in the ruling Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP), has decided to work on strengthening its policy-making 
capability this year. The faction will work together with a 
think-thank to come up with policy proposals. It will also send a 
delegation to the United States, Europe, and China. With an eye on 
the political situation after the next Lower House election, the 
faction intends to consolidate its unity and boost its presence in 
the party. 
 
In its policy proposals, the subject the faction will ponder most 
over will be an economic growth strategy. Japan saw its per capita 
gross domestic product (GDP) fall in 2006 and the country is now 
ranked 18th in the world. Prime Minister Fukuda, as well, is 
troubled that Japan's nominal GDP has stayed flat for the past 10 
years. The Machimura faction will draw up a reform plan to use in 
order to put the economy, which seems likely to stall again, back on 
the growth track. 
 
Because a lack of policy measures for rural areas contributed to the 
LDP's suffering a devastating defeat in the last Upper House 
election, the faction is placing emphasis on agricultural policy. 
 
On the question of how to manage the Diet, when the ruling bloc 
holds a majority in the Lower House and the opposition controls the 
Upper House, the faction will compile the results of discussions 
conducted since last fall at its policy committee. The Machimura 
faction intends to suggest promoting discussions between the ruling 
and opposition parties in a pragmatic way by using sub-committees 
that are free from the fetters of regular meetings. 
 
The Machimura faction will publicize its proposals and will seek 
approval from other policy groups in the party. 
 
The purpose of sending a delegation to the U.S. is to build a 
network of contacts with the new U.S. administration that will come 
in after the fall presidential election in the fall. Based on the 
results of the prime minister's visit to China at the end of last 
year, the faction, by sending its delegation to China, will strive 
to strengthen cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party. Its 
delegation to Europe plans to visit the Royal United Services 
Institute for Defense and Security (RUSI). 
 
The Machimura faction will also create its own website and to post 
its proposals and the results of its overseas trips. Moreover, it is 
considering introducing a system of delivering streaming images and 
broadcasting live the general meeting that it holds once a week. 
 
The Machimura faction has produced four prime ministers in 
succession, namely, Yoshiro Mori, Junichiro Koizumi, Shinzo Abe, and 
Yasuo Fukuda. It has 84 Lower and Upper House members at present and 
is glorying in their ascendancy. But this situation will not 
continue indefinitely. 
 
The Koga and Tanigaki factions in the LDP have agreed to merge by 
this spring. The Yamasaki faction recently invited former Policy 
Research Council Chair Nobuteru Ishihara to join the faction. 
Ishihara is now a member of the Yamasaki faction. Former Minister of 
Economy, Trade and Industry Shoichi Nakagawa of the Ibuki faction 
organized a cross-factional study group of conservative lawmakers. 
 
With an eye on when the next Lower House election will occur, 
 
TOKYO 00000035  005 OF 015 
 
 
factions in the LDP are becoming active. The Machimura faction 
intends to counter other factions by enhancing its capabilities. 
 
(3) Next Lower House election: LDP, DPJ aiming at enemy's strong 
constituencies; LDP to place emphasis on organized votes, DPJ on 
urban areas 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
January 5, 2008 
 
A dead heat is expected in the battle between the ruling Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) and main opposition Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ or Minshuto) in the next House of Representatives election, 
which is expected to occur before the end of the year. The two 
parties are desperately trying to implant an awareness of their 
being in a war mode into the minds of their members and supporters 
by making their senior members stump nationwide. Both parties are 
aiming at beating the other party to the punch. The LDP is now 
trying to return to its past election strategy of conducting an 
organized election. The DPJ is placing importance on gaining support 
in urban areas. The two parties are already locked in battle to win 
votes in the Lower House election. 
 
The LDP has been on the offensive owing to such issues as the 
pension record-keeping fiasco. The fact is that there is little hope 
that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will be able to show a "strong 
character" that the party could use to gain support from 
unaffiliated voters in the next Lower House election. The LDP will 
be forced to carry out a defensive election in the next Lower House 
race, in contrast to the 2005 election in which the party won a 
landslide victory. Under such circumstances, the LDP has called on 
its members to conduct an organization-based election of the kind it 
used to carry out. 
 
Election Committee Chairman Makoto Koga spent much time stumping 
nationwide until the end of last year because of the party's 
crushing defeat in the 2007 House of Councillors election when 
voters in the regions distanced themselves from the LDP. He attached 
special importance to maintaining a dialogue with 
construction-related associations, paving the way for a drive to 
increase the number of party members, centering the effort on 
industrial associations. This will also lead to a strategy of 
crushing the DPJ's policy stances. Consideration for local areas was 
pronounced in a draft national budget for fiscal 2008 that the 
ruling camp approved late last year. The tactic is to give priority 
to incorporating policies which the LDP thinks will be able to win 
the election. 
 
Against the background of criticism that structural reforms have 
lost their effectiveness, the LDP increased grants to local 
governments for the first time in three years. It also placed 
emphasis on the allocation of budget money to agricultural areas. 
The LDP apparently intended to prevent the differences in major 
policies between it and the DPJ that showed up in the 2007 Upper 
House election from coming to the fore. 
 
Regarding the criterion of selecting candidates, the LDP abolished 
in principle the slot for woman candidates to run in the 
proportional representation segment introduced in 2005. It also 
urged some of the so-called "Koizumi children," who were elected in 
the 2005 Lower House election from the proportional representation 
segment, to run in single-seat constituencies. It aims to increase 
 
TOKYO 00000035  006 OF 015 
 
 
the number of votes to be gained by creating a sense of alarm among 
candidates. 
 
The DPJ, however, has adopted a strategy that would allow it to grab 
the reins of government in one election. Taking a serious view of 
its defeat in urban areas in the 2005 Upper House election, the 
party has come up with a strategy of focusing on urban areas in the 
next Lower House race, slightly correcting its policy of placing 
importance on rural areas that it used in the 2007 election. 
 
At a press conference last December, Ozawa underscored: 
 
"Gaps have grown between the urban and local areas. There is also a 
growing gap in incomes and employment in the urban areas. This will 
become a major issue in the Lower House election" 
 
Lower House elections differ from those of the Upper House, in which 
the number of single seats up for grabs determines whether the party 
will win or lose. Ozawa's remarks indicate that expanding support in 
the urban areas which have many seats is the key to win the race. 
 
The DPJ, however, is facing a challenge in the urban areas. Due to 
the aftereffects of the landslide defeat in the 2005 Lower House 
polls, there remain many single-seat constituencies in which the DPJ 
has been unable to field candidates. Although Ozawa took the 
initiative in coordinating, he failed to resolve the situation. 
 
The DPJ is having trouble cooperating with the Social Democratic 
Party and People's New Party in 25 to 30 constituencies in the 
election. It had planned to end coordination bye the end of last 
year, but there is no electoral district in which the DPJ has agreed 
with the SDP and PNP on election cooperation. 
 
(4) Eco-war: Japan hard-pressured to come up with measures against 
climate change 
 
ASAHI (Page 3) (Abridged) 
January 6, 2008 
 
Shinnji Inada and Naoki Shoji 
 
Climate change will be addressed as a major subject in the Group of 
Eight (G-8) summit conference in Lake Toya, Hokkaido, slated for 
this summer. In the 13th Conference of the Parties (COP13) to the 
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 
Bali, Indonesia in December, Japan was severely criticized for its 
irresolute attitude. In his New Year's press conference, Prime 
Minister Fukuda declared that he would attach importance to the 
environmental problem as well as reform of the pension system. Can 
Japan redress its bad reputation heard in Bali? 
 
Prime Minister Fukuda follows his predecessor-developed "Cool Earth 
50" 
 
The Fukuda administration has been since the beginning of the year 
demonstrating its proactive stance toward the environmental issue. 
The basis for his approach against global warming is "Cool Earth 
50," a long-term vision hammered out by his predecessor Abe 
administration. 
 
At one point Japan appeared to move forward under its slogan "Cool 
Earth," but its measures against climate change have been drifting 
 
TOKYO 00000035  007 OF 015 
 
 
now, being put behind the question of whether to resume the 
Self-Defense Forces' (SDF) refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and 
the defense interests-related scandal. 
 
In Japan, business leaders and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and 
Industry (METI) are opposing any idea to put a strict limit to 
corporate activities. METI's rollback began at the end of last 
November at a meeting of a joint session between the Ministry of 
Environment (MOE) and METI, where both ministries discussed a 
domestic-emissions trading system and a green tax. 
 
Attention was paid to which of the two ministries would assume the 
role of summing up the session after the discussion. The two 
ministries are wide apart (over measures against climate change), so 
which of the two would play that role could have suggested a 
direction Japan would head for in dealing with global warming. It 
was MOE's turn to sum up the discussion, but METI strongly asked MOE 
to change places. As a result, both ministries decided, though 
unusually, to sum up the discussion together. Tohoku University 
Prof. Junsen Asuka, who attended the session, noted: "At a time when 
the decision was made that both ministries would sum up the session 
together, I thought Japan decided to put off a conclusion (about its 
measures against climate change)." 
 
The confrontation between the two ministries also affects Japan's 
diplomatic strategy. Prior to the COP13 conference in Bali in 
December, relevant ministries and agencies formed Japan's policy 
line to deal with the post-Kyoto Protocol age. 
 
A proposal Japan submitted to the Climate Change Secretariat gives 
the highest priority to establishing a working group which major 
emitters of greenhouse gases take part in. The proposal makes it 
ambiguous, however, what Japan would do to reduce the total 
emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), an aspect that has encountered 
strong opposition from economic circles. A senior MOE official said, 
"High on agenda in the Bali conference was a roadmap, so whatever 
was written in the proposal other than that would not be discussed." 
A senior Foreign Ministry official made this comment: "At a time 
when we are making efforts to bring the United States and China, 
which do not like setting numerical targets, into the discussions, 
it is not a good idea for Japan to mention numerical targets." A 
head-on confrontation between MOE and METI was avoided thanks to 
various concessions and speculations. In the meantime, there was no 
sign that the Prime Minister's Official Resident (Kantei) had 
intervened to come up with a proposal overcoming ministerial 
interests. 
 
Business leaders are also making requests about climate change. In 
early December, the Japan Business Federation's (Nippon Keidanren) 
Chairman Fujio Mitarai met with Environment Minister Kamoshita and 
others before they headed for Bali and warned them: "If irrational 
restrictions on the total emission of greenhouse gases are set like 
the Kyoto Protocol did, Japan would be certain to suffer a weakening 
of its international competitiveness." 
 
At the Bali conference, Japan's proposal came under criticism more 
than expected because of its vagueness. Environmental 
non-governmental organizations reacted sensitively to Japan's move 
with one NGO member arguing, "Japan, which produced the Kyoto 
Protocol featured by setting total reductions of greenhouse gases 
country by country, is now going to throw away the protocol." 
 
 
TOKYO 00000035  008 OF 015 
 
 
Hironori Hamanaka, chair of the Institute for Global Environmental 
Strategies' Board of Directors who had been involved in global 
warming negotiations for many years, sensed the mood of the Bali 
conference by saying: "I think it has become considerably difficult 
for Japan to restore its image." 
 
Setting numerical targets imperative for Japan after suffering "Bali 
shock" 
 
Coming under heavy fire in the Bali conference, Japan turned around 
its previous position suddenly at the end of December. 
 
On Dec. 27, a meeting of four cabinet members was held to discuss 
Japan's international strategy against climate change. Prime 
Minister Fukuda plans to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, 
Switzerland, slated for late January and address the forum about 
Japan's basic position toward the G-8 summit in Lake Toya. 
 
In the cabinet ministerial session, Environment Minister Kamoshita 
held up an English language daily issued in Indonesia. The daily 
carried the big pictures of the faces of Prime Minister Fukuda, U.S. 
President Bush, and Canadian Prime Minister Harper with the caption 
reading, "No targets -- Just global disaster coming soon. The world 
should not give in." This was a full-page ad placed by an 
environmental NGO. 
 
"Japan is regarded by the rest of the world as a force of 
resistance, but is this all right?" asked Kamoshita. In response, 
Chief Cabinet Secretary Machimura suggested, "How about setting 
Japan's numerical targets for cutting emissions of greenhouse 
gases?" Machimura was given support from Foreign Minister Koumura. 
METI Minister Amari, who was reluctant to set numerical targets, 
left the conference room without making his position clear. 
 
The Kantei then came round to the thinking that Japan should work 
out its mid-term goal. Around then, Fukuda appointed former Nippon 
Keidanren Chairman Hiroshi Okuda, advisor to Toyota Motor, as a 
special advisor to the Cabinet, anticipating Okuda would play the 
role of urging other business leaders to change their minds. 
 
Meanwhile, the major opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) 
began preparations to send its President Ozawa to the World Economic 
Forum and display its measures against climate change to world 
leaders. The DPJ is ready to put forward a bill intended to set up a 
headquarters to deal with global warming shortly and present a bill 
aimed at establishing a domestic emissions trading system. Its 
Deputy Policy Research Council Chairman Tetsuro Fukuyama said, "Now 
is the right opportunity for us to make (the environmental issue) a 
campaign issue in the next general election." The DPJ's offensive is 
also irritating the government and the ruling parties. 
 
On Jan. 4, Fukuda held his New Year press conference, in which he 
described the global warming issue as a "task that can't wait." 
 
The cabinet made a sudden about-face and began emphasizing the 
environmental issue. This has perplexed government officials with 
one high-level official noting: "If the cabinet sets an unattainable 
target as a result of being overly conscious of climate change, it 
could assume a risk in the upcoming G-8 summit." 
 
(5) Farm produce growing areas could change drastically nationwide 
due to global warming: Agriculture ministry to speed up studies on 
 
TOKYO 00000035  009 OF 015 
 
 
countermeasures; Tangerines go off more quickly while in storage; 
Vegetable prices collapse due to concentrated shipment time 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Full) 
January 7, 2008 
 
The National Agriculture & Food Research Organization (NARO located 
in Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture) conducted a nationwide survey 
from 2003 through 2005 on the impact of global warming on fruit, 
vegetable and rice farming in Japan. The survey confirmed poor color 
development of grapes and apples and a decline in rice quality 
nationwide. 
 
The opinion survey was conducted to sample views of public 
agricultural research organs throughout the nation on the impact of 
global warming. 
 
Respondents in all of 47 prefectures answered that there are 
experiencing the impact of global warming in terms of growth and 
development, crop yields, quality, or pests and diseases. Global 
warming affected vegetables, flowers and ornamental plants in 90 
PERCENT  of the prefectures and rice in 70 PERCENT  of the 
prefectures. 
 
Regarding a major impact on fruits, Toshihiko Sugiura, senior 
researcher at NARO, said, "Unlike vegetables and rice, which are 
planted each year, fruits are harvested from the same trees for many 
years, It is, therefore, not possible to adjust the time for 
planting. Coming up with measures for fruit cultivation is of urgent 
necessity." 
 
As concrete effects of global warming, the survey respondents cited 
increased cases of poor color development of apples, grapes and 
tangerines, which is ascribable to higher night temperatures, 
sunburn caused by high temperature on the surface of fruits and the 
softening of fruits due to overriping. 
 
Respondents also cited an increased case of vegetables and fruits 
budding and flowering earlier and suffering from damage of frost 
caused by the recurrence of cold. It is also noteworthy that pear 
trees are not leafing out or flowering in the spring, because they 
were not exposed to low temperatures in the winter because of the 
warm weather. 
 
Shizuoka Prefecture, a tangerine-producing area, has adopted a sales 
strategy of shipping tangerines for a long period of time from the 
turn of the year through March, by storing harvested products. 
However, the quality of stored tangerines reportedly deteriorates 
more quickly than before due to global warming. The early ripening 
phenomenon seen among vegetables is affecting the sales of the 
products, disabling a relay shipment system of each production area 
staggering the time for shipments. As a result, concentrated 
shipments are reportedly collapsing shipments. There is also a 
vacuum period when there are no products on store shelves. 
 
As cases of the impact of global warming on rice farming, there are 
white immature grains with deteriorated quality and split grains. 
Both grains are the results of excessively high temperature when 
ears of rice plants grow. Though causal correlation has yet to be 
proved, there is an increase in spotted rice grains with ears of 
rice eaten by increased number of shield bugs. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000035  010 OF 015 
 
 
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) also 
carried out as of last year a survey of prefectures on the impact of 
global warming on agriculture and obtained similar results. 
 
MAFF also ran a simulation on the moving of areas suitable for fruit 
cultivation according to the advancing of global warming. According 
to the simulation, areas suitable for growing apples and mandarin 
oranges would move north. Temperatures in areas that are currently 
suitable for growing those fruits would rise too high, changing the 
map of major growing areas. The MAFF simulation also projected that 
if national average temperature goes up 3 degrees centigrade in the 
2060s, harvest yields of rice in Hokkaido would increase 13 PERCENT 
, while those in areas south of the Tohoku region would drop by 
between 8 PERCENT -15 PERCENT . 
 
Following such survey results, MAFF will map out measures to deal 
with impacts that are seen now. At the same time, it intends to 
release a policy of strengthening studies on mid- to long-term 
measures with the aim of giving a boost to efforts to accelerate 
global warming preventive measures. 
 
(6) Japan-U.S. defense interests (Part B) 
 
SENTAKU (Pp. 110-113) (Almost full) 
January 2008 issue 
 
Kyuma's betrayal over Futenma replacement facility 
 
As seen in the case of Armitage Associates, Yamada Corp.'s Miyazaki 
made tremendous efforts to build his channels of communication to 
U.S. lobbyists. Miyazaki frequently traveled to the United States to 
have business lunches with several lobbyists. Meanwhile, Miyazaki's 
friend, Naoki Akiyama, a director of the Japan-U.S. Center for Peace 
and Cultural Exchange, also successfully gained access to some U.S. 
Representatives and Senators. His connections also turned into 
Miyazaki's ammunition. Needless to say that in order for Yamada to 
become General Electric's exclusive agency and gain intimate access 
to the then Defense Agency by beating other giant corporations, it 
needed every connection to influential U.S. figures it could get. 
 
Last fall, a group of ten prosecutors and administrative officials 
from the special investigation squad of the Tokyo District Public 
Prosecutors Office flew to Okinawa on a special mission. Their aim 
was to look into the project to build a replacement facility for 
Futenma Air Station in which it had been decided that the relocation 
site would be along the coast in the Henoko district of Nago City. 
The project, having attracted the attention of political and 
business circles in Japan and the U.S., has now become a carbon copy 
of the "Guam interests" model. 
 
In 1996 during the administration of Prime Minister Hashimoto, Tokyo 
and Washington reached an agreement to return Futenma Air Station to 
Japan. The event was lauded as the greatest achievement since the 
reversion of Okinawa. In 1997, the government drew up a plan to 
construct as Futenma's replacement facility a heliport at Camp 
Schwab with a 1,300-meter runway. 
 
Recalling those days, a source connected with the Defense Ministry 
said: "Around that time, general contractors and trading companies 
vied fiercely to join the project, making contacts with defense 
officials." Because major steel companies, shipbuilders, and general 
contractors in Tokyo, such as Nippon Steel Corp., came forward, and 
 
TOKYO 00000035  011 OF 015 
 
 
Nissho Iwai Corp. (currently Sojitz) served as the coordinator, many 
local companies reacted fiercely, saying, "Are the Tokyo-based firms 
going to monopolize interests in Okinawa?" 
 
At that point, Bechtel stepped in. Bechtel wanted to be the company 
to build an airport on reclaimed land off Camp Schwab by teaming 
with up with Kokuba Gumi Co., Okinawa's largest construction 
company, and enlisting the general trading house Itochu to serve as 
the coordinator. Bechtel secretly prepared an airport development 
plan in 1998. Two runways were shown on the plan combining an aerial 
photograph with computer graphics. It was a prototype of the 
V-shaped pair of runways. 
 
An Okinawa prefectural assemblyman noted: 
 
"When Bechtel held a briefing session for Okinawa assemblymen, 
former Secretary of Defense William Perry also came all the way to 
promote the Bechtel plan. That really surprised us. Because the 
reclaimed land plan would benefit local gravel suppliers, the 
Okinawa side, including Governor Keiichi Inamine, started calling 
for reclamation." 
 
After many twists and turns, then Vice Defense Minister Moriya in 
2005 introduced a ground-based plan. The design would have the 
runway built at Camp Schwab. 
 
A Defense Ministry source explained: 
 
"Building a runway at Camp Schwab would not benefit Bechtel very 
much, so the U.S. side fiercely opposed it. In the end, an agreement 
was reached to reclaim land off Camp Schwab." 
 
In 2006, Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro of Nago, the relocation site 
for Futenma Air Station, and Higashi Kaihatsu and other local 
businesses poured cold water on the government's Camp Schwab coastal 
plan, coming up with an offshore plan to build runways two 
kilometers off the coast. 
 
A local assembly man said: 
 
"Realizing the loss of steam of the Keiseikai in the Liberal 
Democratic Party under the Koizumi administration, local business 
circles after much thought made huge donations to LDP lawmaker Taku 
Yamasaki, a defense policy specialist, in the hope that he would 
apply pressure on his close friend, Prime Minister Koizumi." 
 
But their plan fell through, and the government eventually adopted a 
plan to build a V-shaped pair of runways based on the coastal plan. 
 
The local assemblyman also added: 
 
"But in January 2007, Defense Minister Kyuma raised an objection to 
the government plan, saying, 'I think building a single runway will 
suffice.' Kyuma thus began siding with local business circles that 
were fixated on the offshore plan. Extremely irritated by Kyuma's 
attitude, Moriya who wanted to steamroll the government plan ordered 
the Intelligence Service Command to uncover Kyuma's secret meeting 
with local business leaders." 
 
"Do not add fuel to the Yamada scandal" 
 
Kyuma stands at the head of defense interests associated with U.S. 
 
TOKYO 00000035  012 OF 015 
 
 
force realignment. Under his wing are local assemblymen, as 
exemplified by House of Representatives member Mikio Shimoji. They 
have been scurrying around trying to bring those interests to 
Okinawa. 
 
In early November 2007, shortly before Motonobu Miyazaki was 
arrested, U.S. Secretary of Dense Robert Gates visited Japan to urge 
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and government leaders to swiftly resume 
Japan's refueling operation in the Indian Ocean and implement the 
U.S. force realignment plan. Showing up at a Tokyo hotel around the 
same timeframe was former Defense Secretary William Cohen and 
defense adviser William Schneider. They attended the Japan-US 
Security Strategy Conference, chaired by Naoki Akiyama. The 
conference also brought together executives of major defense 
companies, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Boeing, and 
Lockheed. 
 
Former Defense Minister Kyuma also delivered a videotaped message 
underlining the need to discuss essential defense issues without 
being bound by trivial matters. The gathering of Japanese and U.S. 
defense officials at that particular timeframe was not coincidental 
but to send a clear message to Japanese prosecutors not to add fuel 
to the Yamada scandal. 
 
The Lockheed scandal, which was originally a bribery case over 
defense interests over the P3C antisubmarine patrol aircraft, was 
replaced by interests over ANA commercial planes. The 
Douglas-Grumman scandal came to a deadlock before sticking the knife 
into Nissho Iwai and the defense industry. The U.S. defense industry 
is untouchable, and any attempt to touch it would result in the 
arrest of even prime minister on trumped up charges. The expiration 
of the tenure of Hiroaki Yagi as chief of the special investigation 
squad is approaching. Even the Lockheed scandal failed to shed light 
on the dark side of Japan-U.S. defense interests. The road ahead is 
fairly steep. 
 
(7) Next midterm defense buildup plan to be frontloaded 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
January 6, 2008 
 
The government and ruling parties are looking into the feasibility 
of discontinuing Japan's current midterm defense buildup plan in its 
final fiscal year to frontload the next-term defense buildup plan 
one year earlier than scheduled. The current midterm defense buildup 
plan is set for a period of five fiscal years up to 2009. However, 
the Defense Ministry was involved in scandals over its procurement 
of equipment for the Self-Defense Forces. The government and ruling 
coalition judged that such events marred the current midterm defense 
buildup plan's reliability. The government, now reviewing the 
Defense Ministry's procurement system, will set about working out 
the new defense buildup plan at an early date. The government was 
expected to decide under the current plan to introduce the follow-on 
mainstay fighter plane (FX) model for the Air Self-Defense Force. FX 
introduction will be rescheduled under the next-term defense buildup 
plan. 
 
A midterm defense buildup plan caps Japan's defense spending for a 
period of five fiscal years, and it specifies procurement plans for 
each new five-year period. This planning formula was introduced in 
fiscal 1986. Each midterm defense buildup plan is based on the 
National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG), which was formerly known 
 
TOKYO 00000035  013 OF 015 
 
 
as the National Defense Program Outline or NDPO for short. 
 
The current midterm defense buildup plan (for fiscal 2005-2009) was 
adopted in a cabinet decision of December 2004. Its spending totals 
approximately 24.24 trillion yen, incorporating a plan to introduce 
a missile defense (MD) system, such as enhancing the capability of 
Aegis-equipped ships, and a plan to introduce the FX model. 
 
The midterm defense buildup planning formula is also meant to 
ratchet defense spending. Last year, however, a defense contractor's 
bill-padding practices were brought to light. On Jan. 4, Akihiro 
Ota, who heads New Komeito, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's 
coalition partner, said the government should basically abolish 
occasional contracts. In addition, Ota also suggested the need for 
the government to check defense contractors' overestimates. 
 
The government set up a panel at the prime minister's office for an 
overhaul of the Defense Ministry. This panel is studying a new 
procurement system, including the option of making a package 
purchase of defense equipment. "It's a consensus of the government 
and the ruling parties to have an improvement plan reflected in the 
next-term defense buildup plan," a senior Defense Ministry official 
said yesterday. 
 
The panel will come up with an interim report in February. Based on 
the interim report, the Defense Ministry will create the next-term 
defense buildup plan for fiscal 2009-2013, starting in April. The 
government is expected to make a cabinet decision in December this 
year to adopt the new midterm defense buildup plan. The government 
will likely retrench the new defense buildup plan's total cost in an 
aim to emphasize a reform of the Defense Ministry. 
 
The Ground Self-Defense Force looked to introduce the AH-64D Apache 
as its mainstay combat helicopter model. However, the United States 
has now discontinued its production. The Defense Ministry will 
therefore have to reduce the number of new choppers to be procured 
for the GSDF under the current midterm defense buildup plan. This is 
also one of the reasons why the new defense buildup plan will be 
moved up one year earlier than scheduled. 
 
Meanwhile, the ASDF currently has about 90 F-4 fighter planes. These 
ASDF F-4 fighters, however, are now superannuated. The Defense 
Ministry has plans to replace the F-4s with the FX model. The 
current midterm defense buildup plan specifies a plan to introduce 
the first seven FX-model jets. The ASDF is interested in the F-22 
Raptor, a U.S.-developed state-of-the-art stealth fighter jet model, 
as a likely FX candidate. However, the United States embargoes the 
F-22. The Defense Ministry's FX selection is therefore facing rough 
going. 
 
The Defense Ministry will now push back FX introduction under the 
next-term defense buildup plan. Instead, the Defense Ministry would 
like to introduce more than seven FX-model fighters under the 
next-term defense buildup plan. This FX introduction will likely be 
controversial in connection with financial circumstances. 
 
(8) U.S. nuclear-powered submarines made 48 port calls in Japan in 
2007; Okinawa's White Beach most frequently visited 
 
AKAHATA (Page 4) (Full) 
January 6, 2008 
 
 
TOKYO 00000035  014 OF 015 
 
 
In 2007, 12 U.S. Navy attack nuclear-powered submarines made 48 
calls at Japanese ports in 2007, according to statistics by local 
governments hosting such ports. Above all, White Beach in the city 
of Uruma in Okinawa Prefecture topped the list with a record 24 port 
calls (an increase of eight from the year 2006). The number of calls 
at the Yokosuka base in Kanagawa prefecture dropped by one from the 
year 2006 to 13 calls, and the Sabebo base in Nagasaki Prefecture 
also dipped by five to 11 visits. Although the number of ships 
declined by four as a whole, the number of calls increased by two, 
hovering around the 50 level over the last several years. 
 
In September 2006, radiation was detected in waters off Yokosuka as 
the USS Honolulu left the port, resulting in a serious problem. It 
was also found in October 2007 that the USS Hampton that entered 
Yokosuka and White Beach had faked data to conceal the fact that it 
failed to conduct a daily examination of radioactive substances for 
a month during its seven-month western Pacific cruise, exposing its 
extremely sloppy safety management. 
 
It has also become clear through a declassified U.S. government 
document obtained by international affairs researcher Shoji Niihara 
that the governments of Japan and the United States concluded a 
secret pact in 1971 not to monitor radioactive contamination in the 
 
SIPDIS 
air within 50 meters of U.S. Navy nuclear-powered submarines when 
they enter Japanese ports. 
 
Planning to deploy the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier George 
Washington to Yokosuka in 2008, the U.S. government and the U.S. 
Navy have played up the safety of nuclear-powered ships. But their 
assertion has now been proven groundless. 
 
The bow of the nuclear-powered Newport News also hit Kawasaki Kisen 
Co.'s oil tanker Mogamigawa in the Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian 
Sea in January 2007. 
 
The move to realize the U.S. Defense Department's strategy 
(Quadrennial Defense Review established in February 2006) of 
deploying 60 PERCENT  of the U.S. submarines in the Pacific for 
securing its interests progressed smoothly in 2007, and Japan is now 
an important base for it. 
 
The Seawolf class attack nuclear-powered submarines Seawolf and the 
Connecticut were transferred from the Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific 
Fleet in 2007. The Connecticut that entered a Japanese port in 
November took part in a large joint exercise with the Maritime 
Self-Defense Force. The Hampton has also been assigned from the 
Atlantic Fleet to the Pacific Fleet. The Atlantic Fleet-based 
Providence has also repeatedly made port calls in Japan. 
 
In many cases, U.S. submarines visited Sasebo and White Beach for 
less than one hour, and that trend continued in 2007 as well. In 
fact, of the 10 calls at Sasebo, five calls lasted less than one 
hour (additionally, one visit marked 71 minutes) and of the 24 calls 
at White Beach, 17 were shorter than one hour. 
 
Duties of U.S. attack nuclear-powered submarines include ground 
attacks with cruise missiles, antisubmarine and anti-surface 
warfare, injecting and collecting special operations troops, 
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance activities. U.S. 
submarines seem to make short port calls to transport special 
operations troops and reconnaissance units and transmitting 
monitored signals, in addition to replenishing supplies. 
 
TOKYO 00000035  015 OF 015 
 
 
 
DONOVAN