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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 000229 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01/29/08 
 
INDEX: 
 
AMERICAN EMBASSY, TOKYO 
PUBLIC AFFAIRS SECTION 
OFFICE OF TRANSLATION AND MEDIA ANALYSIS 
INQUIRIES:  03-3224-5360 
INTERNET E-MAIL ADDRESS: otmatokyo@state.gov 
DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 
January 29, 2008 
 
INDEX: 
(1) Four stopgap bills submitted to Diet in past following Lower 
House dissolutions (Mainichi) 
 
(2) Ruling parties to submit stopgap gasoline rate bill; Rates' 
expiration in April feared (Mainichi) 
 
(3) Editorial: Stopgap gas tax rate bill; Ruling parties should 
improve Diet deliberations instead of using clever parliamentary 
tricks (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(4) Editorial: Stopgap bill cannot resolve issue (Mainichi) 
 
(5) Otaru City says it will be difficult to accept USS Blue Ridge's 
port call next month (Asahi) 
 
(6) Otaru City turns down U.S. Navy's request on its ship's port 
call (Akahata) 
 
(7) Editorial: Prime Minister Fukuda's speech in Davos fails to 
inspire (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(8) Outlook for 2008-Cutting the world (Sankei) 
 
(9) Japan on defensive over whaling (Asahi) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Four stopgap bills submitted to Diet in past following Lower 
House dissolutions 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Excerpts) 
January 29, 2008 
 
With the aim of temporarily extending the terms of tax-related 
legislation, the government submitted stopgap bills four times in 
the past: 1953, 1955, 1967 and 1970. In all cases, the House of 
Representatives was dissolved either between December and January or 
in late March, thereby forcing the government to submit stopgap 
bills as the last resort to secure sufficient time for deliberating 
on legislation beyond their March 31 expiration. This time, the 
Lower House was not dissolved. Concerned that the situation might 
result in a censure motion against the prime minister, (the ruling 
coalition) has decided to submit a stopgap bill in the form of 
lawmaker-initiated legislation. It can said to be a rare case under 
the divided Diet in which the ruling bloc has a majority in the 
Lower House and the opposition camp controls the House of 
Councillors. 
 
In 1953, then Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida dissolved the Lower 
House on March 14 following the chamber's adoption of a 
no-confidence motion against him. The government submitted a stopgap 
 
TOKYO 00000229  002 OF 014 
 
 
bill to an Upper House emergency meeting on March 18. The bill was 
then enacted by the Upper House alone and was later approved by the 
Lower House after the election in accordance with a constitutional 
provision. 
 
In 1955, the Lower House was dissolved on Jan. 24. The Diet convened 
on March 18, and a stopgap bill was submitted to the Diet on March 
24 and was adopted on 31. 
 
This time around, there still remain two months before the current 
fiscal year ends on March 31. This reflects the ruling bloc's aim to 
secure 60 days for the bill's re-adoption by the Lower House in case 
Upper House deliberations are prolonged by the opposition camp. 
 
(2) Ruling parties to submit stopgap gasoline rate bill; Rates' 
expiration in April feared 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Abridged) 
January 29, 2008 
 
The ruling bloc has decided to submit to the Diet a stopgap bill 
extending the term of validity of the provisional tax rate on 
gasoline for two months without waiting for the full-fledged 
"gasoline Diet." Once the term expires, gasoline prices will drop 25 
yen per liter. Alarmed by the prospect that the public will welcome 
the rate's expiration, the ruling camp has decided to delay the 
timeframe to lower prices. The decision also reflects the ruling 
bloc's intention to buy time with the aim of softening the stance of 
the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto), 
which is opposed to maintaining the provisional tax rate. The DPJ, 
which envisages a decisive battle in April following the rate's 
expiration, is visibly upset. 
 
Afraid of Lower House dissolution 
 
Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Bunmei Ibuki attended a 
government-ruling bloc meeting yesterday, in which he underlined the 
need to submit a stopgap bill, saying, "It is safety net legislation 
to prevent the economy and people's lives from falling into 
turmoil." Guiding discussions in the party, Ibuki brushed aside 
strong reluctance in the party. 
 
The LDP leadership had initially planned to have a bill amending the 
Special Taxation Measures Law, including a step to extend the 
provisional tax rates for 10 years, clear the Lower House in 
mid-February and press the DPJ for the enactment of the bill within 
the current fiscal year. The provisional tax rates expire on March 
¶31. They figured that even if the legislation was voted down in the 
Upper House, the rates' expiration can be avoided with the Lower 
House's re-adoption of the legislation. 
 
But if the DPJ protracts deliberations and the revision bill fails 
to clear the Diet before March 31, gasoline prices will drop 25 yen 
per liter starting in April. Even if the Lower House managed to 
readopt it afterwards, raising the gasoline prices that are closely 
associated with people's lives back to the previous level would draw 
a strong public outcry. Also alarmed by possible political turmoil 
forcing Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda for Lower House dissolution, 
Ibuki and others have come up with the rare approach of submitting a 
stopgap bill to get it clear the Lower House before the end of 
January. 
 
 
TOKYO 00000229  003 OF 014 
 
 
They opted for the stopgap bill instead of a revision bill, thinking 
that would help soften the opposition camp's reaction. Before long, 
the government and ruling parties are scheduled to present the DPJ 
with the appointment of the new Bank of Japan governor, which 
requires the Upper House's concurrence. They are also considering 
settling the matter through talks between Prime Minister Fukuda and 
DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa. They also have decided that it would be 
wise to submit the stopgap bill in order to search for common ground 
with the DPJ regarding the provisional rates' term of validity and 
their use. 
 
Nevertheless, the makeshift approach just for averting gasoline 
price cuts might add fuel to public criticism and affect the budget 
deliberation timetable depending on how the opposition bloc reacts. 
An LDP executive also complained about double work to enact the 
stopgap bill and the Special Taxation Measures Law revision bill. 
 
Submitting censure motion difficult 
 
DPJ Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Kenji Yamaoka indicated to 
reporters that his party would put up do-or-die resistance, saying: 
"The law's term of validity will soon expire, so (the ruling bloc) 
is trying to take a deceptive step." Before reporters, DPJ Deputy 
President Naoto Kan also criticized the ruling parties: "It means 
the ruling bloc, armed with a two-thirds majority, has ruled out 
discussions. It has denied the Diet itself." The stopgap bill, 
however, might derail the DPJ's plan to force the prime minister 
into dissolving the Lower House for a general election. 
 
The DPJ plans to drive the government and ruling coalition to a 
tight corner in April when gasoline prices might actually drop. The 
largest opposition party is eager to link the issue of gasoline 
prices, which is closely associated with people's lives, to the 
government's budget bill with the aim of enlisting public support. 
Gasoline prices will not fall if the stopgap legislation clears the 
Diet. Additionally, the ruling bloc's decision to submit the 
makeshift legislation based on its re-adoption in the Lower House 
indicates the prime minister's intention not to dissolve the Lower 
House for the time being. In yesterday morning's meeting of 
opposition party Diet affairs committee chiefs, many pointed out the 
absence of intention to dissolve the Lower House from the prime 
minister who does not want to lose a two-thirds majority in the 
Lower House. 
 
The DPJ can still resort to submitting a censure motion against the 
prime minister in the Upper House. In the event the stopgap 
legislation passes through the Diet, the next deadline would be May 
¶31. If the bill amending the Special Taxation Measures Law to extend 
the provisional tax rates for 10 years is enacted around that time 
when the July G8 Summit is just around the corner, to what extent 
the DPJ can put up resistance is unknown. Even if the stopgap 
legislation is readopted in the Lower House, submitting a censure 
motion in the Upper House does not seem appropriate. 
 
Blocking the ruling camp's plan to get the stopgap legislation clear 
the Lower House before the end of this month also seems difficult. 
The reason is because the DPJ's strategy of boycotting Diet 
deliberations amid financial woes resulting from plummeting stock 
prices is expected to draw heavy fire from the public. Diet affairs 
chief Yamaoka briefed Ozawa on the outlook around yesterday noon, in 
which the opposition president reportedly said, "I'm tired." Some 
DPJ members have begun voicing hopes for the Diet chairs and others 
 
TOKYO 00000229  004 OF 014 
 
 
to step in to settle the matter in some fashion. 
 
(3) Editorial: Stopgap gas tax rate bill; Ruling parties should 
improve Diet deliberations instead of using clever parliamentary 
tricks 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 5) (Full) 
January 29, 2008 
 
Isn't it outrageous for the ruling parties to try to submit to the 
Diet today a stopgap bill extending the provisional gas tax rate as 
an emergency measure and then have it pass the Lower House?  What 
the people want to see is not a clever parliamentary trick but 
substantive Diet deliberations. 
 
The ruling camp's submitting a stopgap bill is probably like a 
writer asking for extension on the deadline for his work. However, 
no writers would ask for extension even before picking up their pen. 
It is strange for the ruling parties to try to extend the expiration 
of the provisional tax rate from the end of March to the end of May, 
without even deliberating on the details of the tax rate. 
 
In a bid to score points by obtaining a reduction in gasoline 
prices, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto), the 
dominant party in the Upper House, is bound to put up resistance to 
the gasoline tax bill's passage within the current fiscal year or 
the stopgap bill amending the Special Tax Measures Law in order to 
keep the provisional tax rate beyond April. Delay in the passage of 
the bill could disrupt people's lives with the central and local 
governments suffering tax-revenue shortfalls. 
 
Provided the revised bill passes the Lower House this month, it 
would be possible for the ruling camp, using a 60-day rule if the 
DPJ stalls on the roll call in the Upper House, to pass it by a 
second vote in the Lower House and put it into effect before the end 
of the current fiscal year. However, since it is impossible for the 
bill to clear the Lower House by the end of January, there not being 
enough time, the ruling camp aims at passing the original bill 
without fail, after securing Diet approval for the stopgap bill 
extending the expiration of the provisional tax rate. 
 
With the victory of a ruling-camp-backed candidate in the much 
spotlighted Osaka gubernatorial election, the ruling parties 
immediately moved ahead and submitted the stopgap bill in one sweep. 
In actuality, however, the Osaka candidate's name recognition 
greatly contributed to his victory. The ruling camp should be aware 
that the election outcome does not mean that they have regained 
popular support. 
 
The opposition parties are fiercely resisting the ruling parties' 
move, arguing that they are using their numbers to control the Diet, 
and are acting without regard to the public. A planned meeting among 
secretaries general of the ruling and opposition parties fell 
 
SIPDIS 
through. The DPJ is determined to resort to even physical resistance 
if the ruling camp rams the bill through the Lower House. There are 
indications of major turmoil coming. 
 
We do not want to see stormy sessions in the Diet, given that the 
opposition now controls the Upper House and the ruling camp controls 
the Lower House. We want Diet members to focus on problems so far 
overlooked, using the current situation as a good opportunity for 
discussions that take the public's perspective in mind. The 
 
TOKYO 00000229  005 OF 014 
 
 
special-purpose road construction revenue issue is indeed symbolic 
in that sense. 
 
Is it really necessary to spend 59 trillion yen for projects under a 
10-year road building plan? Why do the ruling parties want to extend 
the provisional tax rate for another 10 years? Both the ruling and 
opposition parties are responsible for coming up with convincing 
answers to such questions. The New Komeito has proposed setting up 
an advisory body on the road issue. If panel members openly 
deliberate issues in the Diet, it would be worth listening to the 
debates. 
 
As Tokyo Shimbun pointed out when the ruling camp adopted the new 
refueling legislation, they should be cautious about exercising 
their right to put a bill to a second vote in the Lower House. This 
is especially true this time, because they will likely have to 
exercise the right twice. The DPJ would not be able to gain the 
public's understanding either, if it delays Diet deliberations on 
the bill in a manner that makes resorting to such a resolution a 
foregone conclusion. There are two months to go until the end of 
March. It is too soon for them to opt for clever tricks. 
 
(4) Editorial: Stopgap bill cannot resolve issue 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
January 29, 2008 
 
Are the government and ruling parties trying to seriously enact an 
ad hoc bill? There are serious questions about their approach. 
 
The law that stipulates the current provisional rates for gasoline 
and other road-related taxes will expire at the end of March. The 
government has already submitted to the Diet a bill extending by 10 
years the provisional tax rates. However, there is no hope that the 
legislation will clear the Diet before the end of March due to 
opposition by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto). 
 
Therefore, the Liberal Democratic Party-New Komeito ruling coalition 
plans to present a stopgap bill initiated by lawmakers to put off 
the deadlines for the provisional tax rates for two months, and get 
the bill through the House of Representatives before the end of 
January. Even if the DPJ drags out taking a vote on after the bill 
is sent to the House of Councillors, the ruling coalition will be 
able to enact it before the end of March by resorting to the 
so-called 60-day rule, which allows for a bill to be sent back to 
the Lower House if the bill has not been voted on within 60 days 
after being presented to the upper chamber. 
 
The ruling camp's plan is that if this approach is taken, it will be 
possible to prevent the provisional tax rates from becoming 
temporarily null and void even if the enactment of the 10-year 
extension bill is delayed to April or later. 
 
It was known that when the law would expire and the DPJ would 
strongly oppose the law's extension. That's why Prime Minister Yasuo 
Fukuda said in his policy speech that the ruling and opposition 
camps should discuss well based on the relationship of trust. 
 
The ruling coalition's way of submitting a stopgap bill at the time 
when deliberations on the bill to maintain the provisional tax rates 
for ten years have yet to start, ignoring Fukuda's suggestion, can 
be called "an outlandish scheme." The outlandish measure can be 
 
TOKYO 00000229  006 OF 014 
 
 
effective temporarily, but it creates a problem without fail. What 
came to light from a series of moves is the persistence of the 
government and ruling parties that they never give up on the 
revenues for road construction coming from the provisional tax 
rates. 
 
In contrast to its slogan that unnecessary roads would not be built, 
the Koizumi cabinet's reform of Japan Highway Public Corp. ended as 
a half-baked reform. Even though, the Koizumi government's policy 
goal of shifting the revenues for road construction to the general 
budget was taken over by the Abe cabinet. 
 
However, the road maintenance and improvement plan compiled last 
December by the Fukuda cabinet incorporated a policy of putting the 
revenues into road projects for 10 years from fiscal 2008. It is 
obvious that the Fukuda government has retreated from the reform 
stance assumed by the two former cabinets. 
 
Based on a deep repentance for its crushing defeat in the Upper 
House election last summer, the LDP's real intention is probably to 
support construction firms in rural areas through road projects. 
Since the party cannot speak about it boldly, Prime Minister Fukuda 
and other officials have stated that the provisional tax rates 
constrain gasoline consumption and that it is an environmentally 
friendly tax system. 
 
If the LDP asserts that abolition of the provisional tax rates goes 
against anti-global warming efforts, it should ask the opposition 
camp to hold policy consultations on a plan to set up an environment 
tax. It should not switch and justify its argument. 
 
The DPJ is also responsible for creating circumstances to allow the 
ruling coalition to come up with the stopgap bill. The reason is 
that it is crystal clear that the DPJ is trying to force the Prime 
Minister to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election by setting 
a cut in gasoline prices as its goal. 
 
Gasoline sales and distribution should not be disrupted for the sake 
of Lower House dissolution. The government and ruling coalition 
should find tenaciously some common ground between the ruling and 
opposition camps, and not rely on a clever tricks. 
 
(5) Otaru City says it will be difficult to accept USS Blue Ridge's 
port call next month 
 
ASAHI (Hokkaido edition) (Page 27) (Full) 
January 29, 2008 
 
The United States Navy has requested a port call Feb. 7-11 by the 
Blue Ridge, the command ship of the Seventh Fleet home-ported at 
Yokosuka Naval Base. In response to the request, the port manager of 
Otaru City yesterday revealed that he had just told the harbor 
master of Otaru (director general of the Otaru Regional Coast Guard 
Department) to avoid having the vessel pay a port call on the 
grounds that it would be difficult to prepare a quay because every 
quay the USS would come alongside is scheduled to be used by 
commercial vessels for loading or unloading. Reportedly, the city 
for the first time has answered that it would be difficult to meet 
the U.S. Navy's request for the port call. 
 
According to the U.S. Forces Japan's (USFJ) port-call request made 
to the Japan Coast Guard, it was hoped that the ship could berth in 
 
TOKYO 00000229  007 OF 014 
 
 
a quay from Feb. 7, 10:00 a.m. through Feb. 11, 10:00 a.m. The 
purpose of the port call reportedly is to make a goodwill and 
friendship visit. 
 
Norio Yamazaki, director of the city government's General Affairs 
Department, explained at a press conference that the port would be 
crowded by commercial vessels. The city official said: "The places 
for USS (Blue Ridge) to berth in the port are limited to four 
because of water depth. Large vessels are scheduled to arrive around 
then. So, there is no available space. The proposed port call would 
cause trouble." 
 
(6) Otaru City turns down U.S. Navy's request on its ship's port 
call 
 
AKAHATA (Page 15) (Full) 
January 29, 2008 
 
Hokkaido's Otaru City (headed by Mayor Katsumaro Yamada) yesterday 
declared that it would turn down a request made by the United States 
Navy to have the Seventh Fleet's command ship, USS Blue Ridge, make 
a port call at the city. 
 
The city government said that it would be difficult to prepare a 
quay for the Blue Ridge because any quay the ship would come 
alongside is scheduled to be in use by commercial vessels or for 
loading and unloading. Otaru Port has four quays that the Blue Ridge 
can come alongside, but those quays are solely for cargo or 
container vessels. 
 
According to a classified document that the Ryukyu Shimpo obtained 
regarding the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) related to the 
Japan-U.S. military alliance, Otaru Port and Muroran Port (in 
Muroran City, Hokkaido) are named as preferred ports for the U.S. 
Navy.  Every year, U.S. Navy ships call at those ports. 
 
Blue Ridge is scheduled to make a port call on Feb. 7-11, while 
Seventh Fleets' Aegis ship John S. McCain is planned to arrive at 
Ishikari Bay New Port around the same time. 
 
Yutaka Saito, chief of the Secretariat of the Otaru Federation of 
Workers Unions, said: "I think the city government, apparently 
influenced by our continued refusal to let warships' port calls at a 
commercial and peace port,' as well as our continued protests, would 
have made such a decision. I'll let this be known to the public." 
 
Otaru City Assembly member Yoshinori Kitano, who belongs to the 
Japanese Communist Party, commented: "Commercial use is cited as the 
reason to turn down the request, but I think this decision could be 
essentially taken as rejecting U.S. warships' port calls. We will 
urge the city government, which has described itself as a peace city 
aiming to eliminate nuclear weapons across the world, to definitely 
reject a port call by any warship." 
 
(7) Editorial: Prime Minister Fukuda's speech in Davos fails to 
inspire 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 5) (Full) 
January 29, 2008 
 
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda at an annual meeting of the World 
Economic Forum (Davos Conference) released a greenhouse gas 
 
TOKYO 00000229  008 OF 014 
 
 
emissions reduction initiative, including the setting up of 
country-by-country aggregate emissions goals. The statement was well 
prepared and polished. However, the point is to whom his speech gave 
consideration. 
 
He said, "In order to turn Japan into a low-carbon-consuming 
society, I have decided to fundamentally revise all of our systems, 
including the production mechanism, lifestyle and the desired forms 
of cities and the traffic system." We want to give high marks to his 
enthusiasm. 
 
He also categorically declared, "Japan along with other major 
greenhouse gas emitters will address a reduction in such gases, by 
setting country-by-country aggregate reduction goals." 
 
However, the specifics of his proposal are vague. 
 
The prime minister said that such goals should be set, based on a 
sector-by-sector buildup method. 
 
This is a method of each country settling a goal, by estimating the 
amounts of reductions each sector, such as household, industry, 
electric power or steel, can achieve, while taking into account 
progress of energy-conserving technologies, and setting the 
aggregate amount as its target. 
 
It is certainly a realistic proposal which each country would find 
it easy to take part. However, would it be possible to attain the 
absolute goal of rescuing human beings from the crisis of global 
warming with a "do-as-much-as-we-can" stance? As the prime minister 
himself stressed in his speech, there is now an urgent need to deal 
with climate change. 
 
The prime minister also stated that the base year for greenhouse gas 
emissions cuts as stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol should be 
revised. His statement indicates his consideration to domestic 
business circles, which claim that setting 1990 as a target year, by 
which time Japan had fully developed energy-conserving measures, is 
disadvantageous for it. 
 
The world would not be inspired by such a proposal that reflects a 
stance of giving priority to his own country's interests. 
 
To begin with, the agreement reached by the Ad Hoc Working Group on 
Further Commitments for Annex 1 Parties late last year at the 
COP13/CMP3 in Bali categorically mentions that the point the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made that it is 
necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 PERCENT -40 PERCENT 
by 2020, compared with the 1990 levels. 
 
This figure is now the basic assumption in the world. The U.S. is 
opposing the proposal just for the sake of securing its own 
benefits, knowing that it goes against the trend. The world would 
not like the statement, which stepped back from the Kyoto Protocol 
with the prime minister himself denying the pact. 
 
In order for the prime minister to display leadership at the Lake 
Toya Summit in Hokkaido, he should go further and clarify a specific 
goal to be achieved by Japan in compliance with the IPCC's 
proposal. 
 
Business circles should also regain the spirit that they had 
 
TOKYO 00000229  009 OF 014 
 
 
displayed when they tided over the oil crises 35 years ago. 
Otherwise, their distance from the world and the "earth" will become 
even widen. 
 
(8) Outlook for 2008-Cutting the world 
 
SANKEI (Page 12&13) (Full) 
January 24, 2008 
 
Okamoto: Japan must see the historical turning point 
Sato: Is "Japan passing" acceptable? 
 
The year 2008 has set in with crude oil prices soaring and stock 
markets plunging worldwide. The world in 2008 looks stormy from the 
very outset. The Sankei Shimbun presents the first round of 
dialogues between Yukio Okamoto, a consultant on international 
affairs and former Foreign Ministry official, and Masaru Sato, a 
writer and a Foreign Ministry official currently suspended and under 
indictment. How will this year turn out for the world and Japan? 
Okamoto underscores the "historical turning point" of this year, 
while Sato points to "the importance of ideas." Both Okamoto and 
Sato stressed the need for Japan to ready itself for global changes. 
(Moderator: Akio Takahata, a senior editorial writer for the Sankei 
Shimbun) 
 
-- Last year, there were major events in Japan and in the world. 
This year as well, we will see big changes, such as the U.S. and 
Russian presidential elections. How do you think this year will turn 
out in the world? 
 
Sato: This is rough thinking, but there's something I can say about 
both 2007 and 2008. I think that there is a growing fear of a third 
world war, unlike past years. I don't mean at all to fan the flames 
of war, but there is already a war on terror going on following the 
Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on America. This war is 
asymmetrical. This kind of war is one trend. Another trend is the 
outbreak of regional conflicts, as we have seen in the past years. I 
don't know what would happen if these two trends somehow linked 
together. The Middle East especially is like a big volcano ready to 
blow. However, I think we can expect to see incidents of Islamic 
terrorism in Pakistan, as well as in the Balkans, including Kosovo, 
Albania, and Bosnia. So we must change our way of thinking, or we 
will not be able to see the threat coming. This is the situation I 
see developing. This is my first point. Secondly, I feel that 
thought is very important. Islamic fundamentalism is a kind of 
thought. So is China's view of scientific growth. Putin is exploring 
ethnicity as a principle in order to rebuild Eurasiasm. Neocon 
(neoconservatism or neoconservatives) in America is also represent a 
kind of thought or set of ideas. 
 
Okamoto: You said thought has become very important. That's 
interesting. I agree. Neo-conservatism today stems from Podhoretz, 
Kristol, and other socialists close to being Trotskyites. They all 
turned rightists. Converts turn radical. However, the role of the 
American neo-conservatism is over. 
 
Sato: But the neoconservatives have settled down and are now taking 
interesting positions. They are stressing their sense of values in 
their respective positions. They are melding together their 
neo-conservatism with a kind of realism to reshape it. 
 
At any rate, ideas remain important. North Korea has strongly set 
 
TOKYO 00000229  010 OF 014 
 
 
forth its military-first thinking. Japan is the only country without 
thought. What's more, Japan cannot seem to tell what's wrong, so it 
cannot see a crisis even if it arises before its eyes. That's 
strange, I think. Although America is thinking of global stability 
and peace in its global strategy, it only serves to make other 
countries become increasingly irritated at it. They would like to 
express their irritation with the U.S. in words, but they just 
cannot. The United States also cannot seem to grasp well how 
irritated other countries are with it. I don't see a bright picture. 
I think this year will be very difficult. 
 
Okamoto: In 1993, after the Soviet Union collapsed, I attended a 
seminar in the United States. There were many prominent people at 
that meeting. I remember that everyone at the forum was saying we 
were at the biggest turning point in 300 years. They said something 
like this. Humanism was established with the Renaissance. After 
that, industrial society came into being. And then, a bourgeois 
revolution took place. Over the next 300 years, an international 
system was established, mainly composed of nation states. Now, we're 
again at the beginning of another 300 year timespan. This is what 
they said. In the next 300 years, sovereign states would not be the 
only players in international politics, including individuals, 
international organizations, regional communities, and business 
entities. This is what they had in mind. 
 
-- 300 years is a long time, isn't it? 
 
Okamoto: I don't know if everyone there was thinking like that. 
However, what they said was proved by the terrorist attacks on 9-11. 
It was ironic, though. They said that non-state players might shock 
the world like this. Of course, I don't think the war on terror will 
continue as long as 300 years. They forecasted that individuals 
would become major players during the next 300 years. This does not 
necessarily mean that the war on terror will continue over the next 
300 years. However, the frameworks and groupings of sovereign states 
now regulate international politics. But we will probably have to 
change this system to a considerable extent, I think. That's one 
point. One other point is the emergence of the BRICs (short for 
Brazil, Russia, India, and China as newly emerging countries). 
However, Russia must not be put on the same plane as the other newly 
emerging countries. Russia is advanced both in its civilization and 
its science and technology. That's why. However, the BRICs 
countries, including Russia, have made a huge economic impact. 
 
Sato: You're right. 
 
Okamoto: China's per capita GDP is now at the same level as Japan's 
per capita GDP in 1970. The Tokyo that I knew in 1970 is not so 
different from now, with some exceptions. In those days, Japan was 
well off. This means that China today is already 11 times larger 
than Japan was in those days. It is huge. Japan's GDP is about 61 
times larger in nominal terms from 50 years ago as of 2006. When we 
factor in yen appreciation and inflation, it's 11 times larger in 
real terms. So China is outpacing Japan in those days. What will it 
be like in the future? For example, China's GDP in real terms will 
be five times Japan's some day, I think. The population of 1.3 
billion times five-this at least means that there will be an 
economic population of 6.5 billion suddenly. How many people can 
live on the earth? When we say it's 10 billion or 12 billion at the 
most, China alone accounts for more than 6 billion in terms of 
economic population or the potentiality of consuming natural 
resources. 
 
TOKYO 00000229  011 OF 014 
 
 
 
-- What a day... 
 
Okamoto: Currently, India's population is 1.1 billion. The 
population of that country will increase to 1.8 billion by 2050. The 
earth cannot provide for that many people. Then, the question is 
what we should do. That's already clear, I think. It's to make 
serious progress in solving our environmental problems. The third 
point is that America has now stumbled to a considerable extent. 
When we see opinion polls, the number of countries that dislike 
America is overwhelming (as compared with the number of pro-U.S. 
countries). 
 
Sato: The United States has become something like the Roman Empire. 
 
Okamoto: That's right. In Europe, Italy is the only country that 
likes America much better, when compared with China. In Asia, Japan 
is the only country that says things like that. If the United States 
keeps losing its credibility, then we may well wonder what Japan 
will do. 
 
-- Japan is saddled with heavy homework, isn't it? 
 
Okamoto: Japan has been pulling back. Though it was just for a 
while, Japan pulled out of the Indian Ocean (i.e., the Maritime 
Self-Defense Force's refueling mission). Today, Japan's staffing for 
the United Nations' peacekeeping operations (PKO) numbers only 51 
persons-centering on the Golan Heights. However, China has 1,810 
persons carrying out PKO. China already has 35 times more people 
than Japan carrying out PKO contributions. The way things are going, 
the world will say, "Goodbye, Japan. Hello, China." 
 
Sato: Moreover, Japan has its own logic that only makes sense to us 
Japanese. In the international community, Japan tries to develop its 
own logic. The world is even simpler in its logic: Japan is no 
longer in the Indian Ocean. In Afghanistan, Taliban is coming back. 
Osama bin Laden also keeps showing up. Syria is being increasingly 
suspected of developing nuclear weapons. The world asks, "Japan 
pulled out when things got dangerous, but why?" The world is asking 
Japan to give an easy-to-understand explanation. However, Japan is 
only saying, "Well, it was for domestic reasons; it was because of 
confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties." The world 
would then say, "All right. Japan has no sense of crisis." They 
would also ask, "Will things always become a political issue in 
Japan?" But the former prime minister said he would stake his 
political life. "What the hell! What do Japanese politicians mean 
when they say something?" Such questions would come out. One of the 
cabinet ministers even went so far as to say, "A friend of my friend 
is an Al Qaeda member." That sounds like a great mystery of the 
Orient. 
 
Okamoto: Ha ha ha! People overseas may think that a friend of an Al 
Qaeda member's friend is Japan's justice minister. That's 
incredible. 
 
Sato: But he is not being blamed for his words by the international 
community. There's such a reality. That's scary, isn't it? 
 
Okamoto: He's not blamed because he's become a laughingstock. 
 
Sato: That means they don't think Japan is an international player. 
Two foreign friends told me that they are reading Ruth Benedict's 
 
TOKYO 00000229  012 OF 014 
 
 
work, The Chrysanthemum and the Sword. They said, "Japan is a great 
mystery of the Orient. That's why." I got mad. So I asked, "What's 
so exotic about Japan?" They said, "It's Japan's wholehearted 
devotion to something." The Japanese people's devotion to something 
is like an exponential power in math. Whatever the base figure is, 
they don't care about it. Japan will work hard on a task given. 
Japan does not have fundamental values or ethics, and Japanese think 
they have only to work harder and harder. That's the only process 
Japan has. That's why they say, "Japanese work harder and harder 
until they succeed, and that's scary." 
 
-- Do they mean we have no philosophy or values and we have only a 
process? 
 
Sato: Yes. I hate to admit it. But Ruth Benedict is again walking 
tall. That's a book that analyzed Japan as an enemy, so we have to 
argue back in an effective way. It all overlaps with Okinawa issues, 
the abductions, and the northern territories. Japan develops a logic 
that is incomprehensible to the international community. Even so, 
Japan will get angry when Japan thinks it was insulted. At the 
personal level, "monster parents" will unreasonably pressure their 
children's schools to let their kids get full marks. They are only 
thinking about themselves. This country's national identity is now 
shrinking. That's the way Japan is, and the question is how to turn 
Japan around. 
 
Okamoto: A half century before The Chrysanthemum and the Sword was 
out, Edward Morse wrote Japan Day by Day. In that book, Morse 
praised the Japanese people. That's basically because of their 
sincerity. But Morse was overwhelmed by the Japanese public's noble 
sense of values. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. 
 
This is the first of a two-section article. 
 
9) Japan on defensive over whaling 
 
ASAHI (Page 2) (Full) 
January 29, 2008 
 
Japan' research whaling operations in the Southern Sea are 
attracting world media attention. Environmental-protection groups 
have shown actual footage of their protest activities against 
Japan's whaling ships in media reports and on the Internet, as a 
strategy to expand public opinion against whaling in the 
international community. Meanwhile, the Japanese government is 
stepping up efforts to counter acts of sabotage with explanations in 
English, but it remains at odds with anti-whaling countries that 
specify the whale is a mammal that must be protected. 
 
Protest ships send message to international community 
 
"We saved 1200 whales." On Jan. 27, a senior member of the 
environment-protection group Greenpeace, which had been chasing by 
boat the Japanese research whaling ship Nisshin Maru, claimed 
victory to a New Zealand media company. Although the Greenpeace gave 
up the pursuit because the boat was running out of fuel, the group 
judged that their activity produced positive results. 
 
Two members of Sea Shepherd (SS) briefly boarded the research 
whaling ship Yushin Maru No.2 from its protest boat. The boat is 
still chasing the Japanese ship. SS Captain Paul Watson proudly said 
in a telephone interview with the Asahi Shimbun: "Not even one whale 
 
TOKYO 00000229  013 OF 014 
 
 
was killed over the past several days owing to our activities. This 
fact can be cited as our most significant success." Sea Shepherd, 
which was founded in 1977, is known for its radical activities. 
 
But its media campaign has produced more achievements than those 
from acts of sabotage. A cameraman and a TV program production 
member have also been on board the SS boat. Video footage taken 
there gets sent around the world in an instant via Internet and 
satellite. Watson said: "We had an interview with a news company of 
a Latin American nation. We also received e-mails from Japanese 
citizens saying that they did not know that they (Japanese) have 
been killing whales." 
 
A senior officer of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and 
Fisheries grumbled: "Radical anti-whaling groups and Western media 
companies have criticized Japan in chorus, but such cannot be called 
international public opinion." The argument that Japan is a bad guy 
is about to gain influence in the international community. In such a 
situation, the Fisheries Agency has begun to report on acts of 
sabotage since the last time and has made it possible to show the 
footage of scenes of sabotage. In addition, several officers from 
the Japan Coast Guard have unprecedentedly been on board the 
research ship, though this has not been publicized. 
 
The Institute of Cetacean Research, which has been engaged in 
research whaling, has shown on its website pictures of the detained 
protesters relaxing and enjoying themselves on the ship with 
explanations both in Japanese and English. The institute was 
particularly careful so that the two were not referred to as 
hostages. It has poured more energy into a defensive battle by 
hiring a foreigner who speaks four languages in preparation for 
interviews with foreign media companies. 
 
Radical acts criticized even in Australia 
 
Why is the Japanese whaling expedition drawing so much attention? 
British BBC correspondent Jonah Fisher, who was on a Greenpeace 
ship, replied by e-mail to the above question by the Asahi Shimbun: 
"Japan's decision to also catch the humpback whale, the most popular 
whale specie, made its whaling operations an international political 
issue." 
 
Australia, which has taken the lead in opposing whaling, used to 
hunt whales for their oil and bones since the late 18th century. But 
the whaling industry declined due to the proliferation of 
alternative products and a decrease in the number of whales as a 
result of overhunting. In 1979, the Australian government stopped 
whaling, and instead whale watching tours and cruises have been 
planned. Such tours are now chief attractions in tourism in 
Australia. According to the government's tourism bureau, whale 
watching tours attract 1.6 million tourists every year, with the 
scale of the market swelling to 300 million Australian dollars, or 
about 28 billion yen. Among various species of whales, many tourists 
particularly love the humpback whale, so they fiercely react to 
Japan (for its whaling operations). 
 
But even in Australia, there are many critics of the radical acts of 
sabotage by such groups as Sea Shepherd. The Australian newspaper 
Sydney Morning Herald carried a contributed letter saying: "It is 
unfortunate to bash Japan over the whaling issue." Charlotte 
Epstein, professor at the University of Sydney, commented: "(The 
activities by Sea Shepherd) have aversely affected moves by other 
 
TOKYO 00000229  014 OF 014 
 
 
environment-protection groups that are legally calling for 
suspending whaling. Such activities are incurring reactions from 
Japanese people, resulting in complicating the issue." 
 
Dialogues between pro-whalers and anti-whalers have also been 
launched. The Pew Charitable Trusts, a research institute of the 
U.S., will hold a Tokyo whaling symposium on Jan. 30-31 at United 
Nations University in Tokyo. About 90 representatives from the 
governments, NGO, and research institutes of 28 countries, including 
Japan, will exchange personal views. A senior policy advisor of the 
institute said: "It is necessary to construct a relationship of 
trust and deepen mutual understanding." 
 
SCHIEFFER