VZCZCXRO4978
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHTV #0242/01 0301407
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301407Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5209
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUEHJM/AMCONSUL JERUSALEM 8962
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000242 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/REA and OES/ENV 
USDA FOR FAS/OCBD/DRDAD 
AMMAN FOR ESTH - BHALLA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV EAGR ENRG IS JO
SUBJ:  ISRAEL AND PA FACE WORSENING WATER SITUATION 
 
Ref: 07 Tel Aviv 1698 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Israel and PA areas have received less than 
two-thirds the average rainfall for this period during the 2007-2008 
rainy season, and may face greater water scarcity than ever before. 
The fourth consecutive year of poor rains will leave natural sources 
of water unreplenished.  The Jordan River, Lake Kinneret (Sea of 
Galilee), and underground aquifers are already pumped beyond their 
sustainable limits.  Water recycling and desalination hold promise, 
but imply tremendous investment in water and energy infrastructure. 
Tight water supplies are likely to heighten political tensions with 
the PA and Jordan in the coming year.  This is a joint Embassy and 
ConGen Jerusalem cable. End Summary. 
 
Natural Water Sources Few 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) That Israel is short of water is 3000-year-old news, but 
rarely in the modern state's history has the situation appeared so 
bleak.  Over the past three years the region has experienced below 
average rainfall during its annual rainy season, November through 
March.  This year Israel's official meteorological service has 
recorded an average of 70.5 percent of normal rainfall in coastal 
regions, 60 percent of normal rainfall at inland reporting stations, 
and only 51.2 percent of normal at Jordan Rift Valley sites.  This 
sums to only 60.7 percent of average normal rainfall to date this 
season.  Total recharge for Lake Kinneret recorded at the end of 
last year's rainy season was about the same 60 percent (reftel). 
 
¶3. (U) Below average rains have left Lake Kinneret, the source of 30 
percent of Israel's fresh water, at -212.54 meters below sea level, 
while its normal range is between -209 and -213 meters.  This 
reading is only 50 centimeters (17 inches) above the redline level, 
the lowest point at which Mekorot, Israel's national water utility, 
can draw from the lake in view of hydrologic and functional 
concerns.  The pipeline drawing on the Lake has been closed since 
early January. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Alternative natural sources of water are also at low 
levels, both from years of low rainfall and from over-pumping.  The 
four aquifers and the small natural springs west of the Jordan River 
supply nearly half of the Palestinian water supply, and the other 
half is purchased from Israel.  Mekorot draws 36 percent of its 
water from these same aquifers.  At the December 2007 Trilateral 
Water Working Group, convening Israeli Water Authority (IWA) and 
Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) managers under USG chairmanship, 
PWA officials stated that over 3000 illegal wells were operating in 
the West Bank and Gaza.  The Gaza aquifer, they noted, is 
particularly over-pumped and polluted, with salinity increasing as 
nearby seawater seeps into the diminishing freshwater table. 
Currently, the PWA estimates that 30 percent of Gaza residents lack 
potable drinking water. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Jordan River is one of the principal sources for water 
for Israel, Jordan and the West Bank, and in addition to natural 
springs, supplies 34 percent of Israel's supply.  The Jordan has 
already been heavily tapped, and its course below Lake Kinneret has 
become little more than a dry river bed except for where 
semi-treated wastewater or industrial effluent is pumped into the 
channel.  Long-standing PA demands to reallocate the River's waters 
above and below Lake Kinneret by diminishing Israel's share have yet 
to be negotiated.  Calls to reduce tapping the Jordan River in order 
to restore that valley's natural ecology and halt the shrinking of 
the Dead Sea will receive even less action until fundamental human 
subsistence needs are assured.  The best Israel can expect from the 
Jordan River in coming years will be the volume it presently draws, 
and that is uncertain. 
 
Non-Natural Water Sources 
------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Israel's two chief non-natural water sources are recycling 
and desalination.  Israel already records the highest level of water 
treatment and reuse in the world; The IWA claims that over 70 
percent of first-use water from the densely populated band including 
Tel Aviv is reused.  This treated "gray water" is sent onward for 
industrial and agricultural purposes.   The high reuse rate 
effectively doubles the volume of water recycled, greatly increasing 
the impact of each cubic meter of natural-source water.  While 
further investments in recycling water will yield benefits, it 
becomes a high cost source in sparsely populated areas or when 
industrial pollutants must be separated out. 
 
¶7. (SBU) This leaves the desalination option.  Desalination remains 
the GOI's hope for addressing the country's long-term water 
shortage.  Israel is a global leader in desalination technology, and 
 
TEL AVIV 00000242  002 OF 002 
 
 
Mekorot has 31 desalination plants operating in Israel.  GOI 
Minister of Infrastructure Binyamin Ben Eliezer has approved plans 
to nearly quadruple existing desalination capacity, from 124 million 
cubic meters annually to nearly 500 mcm.  Major expansions of 
facilities in Ashkelon, Hadera and Palmachim are planned, and new 
installations in Rishon Le Zion and Ashdod will be built.  This 
additional capacity will not be brought on-line until 2012 and 
after, however. 
 
The Energy-Water Connection 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Desalinated water is expensive, however, costing up to 
three or four times naturally-sourced water.  Desalination 
technology filters sea water through multiple layers of filtering 
fibers at very high pressures (up to 40 atmospheres), or distills 
seawater through electrolysis or heat.  Either system requires large 
amounts of energy.  There is a transformation nexus between energy 
and water; creating water requires energy, and effective use of 
water can help save energy.  As demonstrated by oil-rich Persian 
Gulf states, a large investment of energy can yield as much water as 
desired.  Israel has deep resources of neither energy nor water, 
however.  Israel's present installed capacity of 10,800 megawatts is 
generated by coal (63 percent), natural gas (20 percent), diesel (15 
percent) and the balance from alternative sources such as wind, 
biomass, and solar.  Israel currently uses about 6 percent of its 
total generated electricity for moving water around the country; 
including the bill for desalination plants, Mekorot is already the 
largest single electricity consumer in Israel.  Greater water 
recycling will increase this amount.  Producing more desalinated 
water implies both more investment in new generating capacity, and 
potentially greater expense for the imported fuel sources this 
entails. 
 
¶9. (U) Solar energy is the favored alternative energy source in 
Israel.  Despite announcing a national objective of 2 percent of 
Israel's electricity generated by alternative sources by 2007, the 
first solar-generated electric plant in the country is only now 
entering the bidding stage, having been delayed years by 
bureaucratic logjams over land allocation and bidding procedures. 
Minister Eliezer stated on January 23 that Israel should commit 
itself to supplying 10 percent of its energy from renewable sources 
by 2020. 
 
In Lieu of Conclusions 
---------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Weather forecasters are not expecting the amount of rain 
due in the coming two months to compensate for years of substandard 
precipitation.  Predictions are for normal to lighter than normal 
rains.  Barring divine intervention - not to be ruled out in this 
region - the following circumstances may prevail: 
 
-- Over-pumping of aquifers will continue west of the Jordan River, 
leading to deteriorating water quality in Israel and PA areas. 
 
-- Pressure on Israel to share its desalination capacity with 
neighboring PA areas will increase.  This was already seen at the 
December Trilateral Water Working Group. 
 
-- Public demands to address the water shortage will increase into 
the summer, particularly in PA areas; tensions in Gaza will rise 
further. 
 
-- Water resource allocation issues will increase in importance in 
the Annapolis Process working groups. 
 
-- Given the lead-time needed to bring any new freshwater generating 
capacity on-line in the region, from either natural or man-made 
sources, these tensions will have to be managed and short-term 
solutions sought, such as major public conservation campaigns. 
 
-- Solving regional water scarcity will have long-term implications 
on regional power generation plans, given the water-energy nexus. 
 
-- Private sector and NGOs will likely propose quick-fix solutions 
(waterbag technology, tanker-ships, pipelines), but these are costly 
and mostly untested solutions. 
 
MORENO