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TO RUCNTD/USMISSION USUN NEW YOUR IMMEDIATE 0311
INFO SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
IRAQ COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 006172 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL MOPS UNSC IZ
SUBJECT: GUIDANCE FOR JANUARY 21 UNSC OPEN DEBATE ON UNAMI AND 
MNF-I 
 
 
¶1. USUN is instructed to draw from the following text in 
its statement at the January 21 UNSC open debate on UNAMI 
and MNF-I. 
 
¶2. Begin text:  It is my pleasure to report today on 
behalf of the Multinational Forces in Iraq (MNF-I), as 
requested by UN Security Council resolutions 1546, 1637, 
1723, and 1790.  I was pleased to hear the report on the 
work of UNAMI in Iraq and to see the progress it is making 
under the leadership of SRSG de Mistura, particularly in 
helping to address issues associated with Article 140.  We 
are also pleased the Council unanimously adopted 
Resolution 1790 on December 18, extending the mandate of 
MNF-I for another year and allowing Iraq time to achieve 
the objectives it has set for itself as an independent and 
sovereign state. 
 
¶3. Mr. President, the United States shares with the Iraqi 
people the goal of achieving a secure, stable, democratic 
Iraq at peace with itself and its neighbors.  It was with 
this goal in mind one year ago that President Bush 
approved an increase in our troop strength in Iraq to help 
Iraqis secure the population, isolate extremists, create 
the conditions for political and economic progress, and 
accelerate the transition to Iraqi responsibility. 
 
¶4. The continued implementation of the "New Way Forward" 
strategy combined with the surge in overall force levels 
in Iraq has considerably improved levels of security 
during the past quarter.  Efforts to enhance population 
security, such as the establishment of Joint Security 
Stations in key areas, have enhanced Coalition and Iraqi 
forces' ability to interact with local residents and 
obtain information on insurgents and illegal militia 
activities.  Improved security is beginning to achieve 
momentum that, if maintained, may lead to sustained 
stability. 
 
¶5. The number of security incidents has fallen 
significantly and is now at levels last seen in early 2005. 
Monthly overall attacks - those against the coalition forces, 
Iraqi Security Forces, civilians and infrastructure attacks -- 
have been reduced by 60 percent since June 2007. 
The overall reduction in security incidents can be attributed to 
several factors, including the continued decrease in 
capabilities of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and militia extremists, 
increased tribal initiatives against AQI and other extremists, 
Muqtada al-Sadr's ceasefire order to his Jaysh al-Mahdi militia, 
the increased capability of the Iraqi military and police, and 
the sustained presence of Coalition and Iraqi forces among the 
population. 
 
¶6. Today we can look back at some of the recent and 
long-term gains of this "surge" in MNF-I forces.  Let me 
introduce some specific examples. 
 
¶7. Any loss of innocent life is deeply regrettable, and the 
overall number of civilian casualties has declined significantly 
this quarter, and now is below the 
level in February 2006 prior to the Samarra Mosque 
bombing.  Coalition casualty rates have dropped as well and 
December 2007 was the second-lowest death toll of the war, going 
back to May 2003. 
 
¶8. Another striking trend is the reduction in 
ethno-sectarian attacks and deaths -- both of which have 
decreased over 90 percent in the Baghdad security districts from 
January to December 2007. 
 
¶9. Weekly IED incidents have fallen 68 percent since the 
start of Operation Phantom Thunder in late June 2007. 
This drop in IED incidents may be attributed to the 
disruption of insurgent networks that has hindered their 
operational capability.  High-profile attacks in Iraq, 
such as car bombs and suicide attacks, have declined by 
over 50 percent since March 2007. 
 
¶10. As a result of the overall reduction in the number and 
effectiveness of attacks, Coalition deaths across Iraq 
fell to about one-fourth of the high reached in May 2007. 
The number of attacks against Iraqi forces also decreased, 
with a slightly smaller proportionate reduction in deaths. 
 
¶11. There are currently 33 countries playing an essential 
role to support security in Iraq either as a part of the 
Coalition or UNAMI operations.  Coalition members other 
 
STATE 00006172  002 OF 003 
 
 
than the U.S. and Iraq contribute approximately 10,300 
troops to the Coalition, and another 450 to support 
UNAMI.  The specific contributions run from major 
patrolling operations, such as the 1,850 soldier strong 
Georgian contingent that operates in Wasit Province, to 
the Albanian contingent guarding an airfield, to the 37- 
soldier contingent of Bosnians who find and destroy 
unexploded ordinances.  These troops play an indispensable 
role in the Coalition's daily operations and success in 
Iraq. 
 
¶12. The Government of Iraq is also moving forward to take 
greater control of the country's security.  Iraqi forces 
conducted a surge of their own in 2007, providing well 
over 100,000 more Iraqi police and soldiers.  As of 
December 24, 2007, the number of Iraqi Defense and 
Interior Ministry personnel had risen to 516,646.  Ten 
divisions, 34 brigades and 108 battalions have the lead in 
counterinsurgency operations in their areas of 
responsibility, an increase of one brigade and five 
battalions since last quarter.  And of all formed Iraqi 
Army units, 77 percent are rated as being able to plan, 
execute and sustain operations with minimal or no 
assistance from Coalition forces. 
 
¶13. The Coalition continues to transfer responsibility for 
security to the Government of Iraq which now has lead 
security responsibility for nine out of eighteen 
provinces.  Prime Minister al-Maliki has pledged that Iraq 
will assume security responsibility for the remaining nine 
provinces by the end of 2008.  The provinces under 
Coalition security control will continue to transition in 
the coming months as Iraqi forces demonstrate their 
readiness to assume this responsibility. 
 
¶14. This transition to Provincial Iraqi Control (or "PIC") 
is proceeding as planned.  On October 29, Karbala Province 
"PIC'ed," and on December 16, Basrah Province did the 
same.  Over the previous four months, Iraqi security 
forces had maintained their own security and successfully 
demonstrated their readiness to assume full responsibility 
over Iraq's second largest city and its environs. 
 
¶15. Bottom-up reconciliation in the provinces has made 
significant advances.  Local leaders, both Sunni and 
Shi'a, are working with Coalition forces, Provincial 
Reconstruction Teams and the Government of Iraq to improve 
security and economic conditions in their areas. 
 
¶16. There are about 80,000 local citizens who have 
volunteered to fight against extremists under Coalition 
force supervision in many parts of Iraq.  These citizens 
protect critical infrastructure in their neighborhoods, 
and some form neighborhood watch groups. 
 
¶17. Anbar province continues to show dramatic improvements 
in security.  A year ago, Anbar Province was the most 
violent province in Iraq, accounting for more than 25 
percent of all attacks throughout the country.  Its 
citizens grew weary of the violence and turmoil that 
plagued their province, and began to cooperate closely 
with Iraqi and Coalition forces.  The Anbar Awakening 
turned the tide in the fight against al-Qaeda in Iraq in 
the Sunni tribal areas.  Today local citizens are fighting 
al-Qaeda and working with Coalition and Iraqi forces to 
bring security to their neighborhoods.  As a result, this 
quarter, attacks in Anbar plummeted to less than 6 percent 
of the total, and life is rapidly returning to normal. 
 
¶18.  Despite these security gains, foreign terrorists and 
suicide bombers still enter Iraq through Syria.  Syria must do 
more to stem these flows, including 
instituting a stricter visa regime, detaining known 
facilitators, increasing information sharing with 
countries of origin and transit, and further enhancing 
border security.  Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard 
Corps continue to train, equip, and fund Shi'a extremists 
despite reported assurances to Prime Minister al Maliki 
that Iran will cease lethal aid. 
 
¶19. Mr. President, Iraq has come a long way, but much work 
remains to be done.  Looking ahead, we know that Iraq 
faces challenges in several areas.  In 2008, the 
Coalition's four main areas of focus for the Ministries of 
Defense and Interior and their forces will continue to 
develop ministerial capacity; to improve the 
capabilities of the Iraqi forces; to build specific 
enabling capabilities including logistics, sustainment and 
training capacities; and to support the expansion of the 
Iraqi forces. 
 
 
STATE 00006172  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶20. Politically, Iraq's leaders need to foster an 
atmosphere of cooperation and compromise, placing national 
interests over parochial ones.  They must work together to 
address issues such as corruption and terrorist financing, 
and pass laws on provincial powers, hydrocarbons, and 
elections (to lay the groundwork for provincial elections, 
that are long overdue).  The Government also must address 
the mounting problems of corruption, including repairing 
the damage to the Commission on Public Integrity. 
 
¶21. This quarter, the Council of Representatives of Iraq 
overcame significant hurdles to pass the 
De-Ba'athification Reform bill.  This legislation, which 
would allow many former members of the Ba'ath Party to 
assume positions in the government, took months to achieve 
and involved considerable compromise and collaboration by 
many political leaders.  The Presidency Council is 
currently considering its ratification.  [NOTE: Action may 
be taken on this bill by January 21; please update 
appropriately.] 
 
¶22. Turning to economic issues, Iraqi ministries executed 
43 percent of their capital budgets as of September 30, 
2007, which is a substantial improvement over full-year 
2006 budget execution.  This investment in the economy 
should help to stimulate growth and reduce vulnerability. 
In many parts of Iraq, the reopening of schools, clinics, 
markets and improvements in essential services all suggest 
improvements resulting from hard-fought security gains. 
Year-on-year inflation fell from 65 percent in 2006 to 16 
percent through November 2007.  The IMF projects that Iraq 
will have modest growth of 1.3 percent in 2007.  In 
addition, 44 countries agreed to debt reduction for the 
Government of Iraq on Paris Club terms. 
 
¶23. International and regional engagement also continue to 
improve.  We are grateful for the Secretary-General's 
participation in the "Expanded Neighbors" ministerial in 
Istanbul in November, and for UNAMI's offer to support the 
Government of Iraq in coordinating future meetings.  UNAMI 
has played an important role in the development of the 
terms of reference for an ad hoc Expanded Neighbors 
"support mechanism" office to be established in Baghdad. 
UNAMI's commitment to provide technical assistance and 
personnel for the office will be elemental in its success 
and will help the Expanded Neighbors Process to continue 
to serve as a valuable forum for Iraq and its neighbors to 
address common security concerns and create opportunities 
for greater cooperation. 
 
¶24. UNAMI has also demonstrated its leadership in its role 
as co-lead for the International Compact with Iraq, and in 
its support for the UN Development Group which administers 
one of the Iraq Trust Funds of the International 
Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq.  In recent months, 
UNAMI has contributed substantially to standing up the 
Secretariat that is helping Iraq and its donor partners to 
 
SIPDIS 
implement the reforms and initiatives that are called for 
in the Compact, and helping Iraq to achieve economic 
self-sufficiency. 
 
¶25. Iraq is now a different place from one year ago.  Much 
hard work remains, but levels of violence are 
significantly reduced and solid progress is being made. 
Hope is returning to Baghdad, and returning to towns and 
villages throughout the country.  Iraqis who fled the 
violence are beginning to return and rebuild their lives. 
Some 30,000 Iraqis were able to travel to Mecca by air and 
ground between December 11 and January 7 to perform the 
Hajj.  In preparation for this, the Mosul airport reopened 
to civilian flights after being closed for several years. 
 
¶26. Tactical and operational momentum is continuing to 
build, and these improvements, combined with an increase 
in provincial government expenditure rates, have 
contributed to improvements in the delivery of essential 
services and other key programs to the Iraqi people. 
Cooperating with Iraqi and Coalition forces by tribal 
leaders -- both Sunni and Shi'a -- has advanced 
"bottom-up" reconciliation and assisted in countering 
extremism.  The numerous "tribal awakening" movements and 
local citizens programs are creating grass roots progress, 
but challenges remain at the national level.  The key to 
long-term success will be the Government's ability to 
capitalize upon local gains, pass key legislation, and 
promote reconciliation. 
 
End text. 
RICE