VZCZCXRO3704
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHPF #0075/01 0161119
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 161119Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 0128

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PHNOM PENH 000075 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR D, P, EAP/MLS, H, S/WCI, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM CB
SUBJECT: CAMBODIA TRANSFORMATIVE DEVELOPMENT NOTED BY STAFFDEL 
 
REF: (A) Phnom Penh 74 (B) Phnom Penh 56 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Cambodia's significant economic and political 
developments were highlighted by a visiting Senate State Foreign 
Operations Subcommittee staff delegation led by Paul Grove January 
12-14.  Grove, Minority Clerk of the Senate Subcommittee on State, 
Foreign Operations and Related Programs, Committee on 
Appropriations, served as IRI representative in Cambodia from 1994 
to 1996, and has maintained civil society contacts in the country 
since that time.  Grove, who met PM Hun Sen during the visit (Ref 
A), saw signs of maturation and increased space in both the economic 
and political fields presenting "new opportunities".  However, the 
interlinked problems of corruption and of CPP's control of all 
organs of government were noted in both field visits and meetings 
with opposition figures in Phnom Penh.  Michele Wymer, Minority 
Professional Staff Member of the Subcommittee, and Nikole Manatt, 
Majority Professional Staff Member of the Subcommittee, also 
participated in the visit -- which was well-timed as political 
parties begin gearing up for July national elections. 
 
 
Developing Economy and Free Enterprise 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) During his meeting with PM Hun Sen, Grove cited his 
previous day's experience at a Kampong Cham pig farmers' association 
as demonstrating both a growth and maturing of the Cambodian 
economy. Pig farmers told Grove that they had recently won a battle 
against unofficial fees and swine smuggling that was slowly 
squeezing out their small-scale enterprises.  Local farmers who took 
part in a USAID MSME training project decided to form a business 
association in an effort to force the government to respond to 
police-abetted smuggling from Vietnam.  Inspired by their 
achievement -- shared by our Public Affairs Office which used a 
recent Ambassadorial visit to the area highlighting the project to 
garner widespread media coverage that prompted the RGC to crackdown 
-- in getting a ban on the illegal importation of pigs, they then 
successfully tackled the high unofficial fees charged by local 
slaughterhouses.  The Kampong Cham association is now advising 
counterparts from other provinces on how to do the same.  (Note: 
Over the two years that the pig farmers have taken part in the USAID 
project, production and sales have increased by about 230 percent on 
average per farm.) Grove was struck by the increased civil space 
allowing the association effectively to bring their complaints to 
the government, and commented that this model of USAID technical 
assistance acting behind the scenes to empower associations to 
address the issues most important to them was an inexpensive but 
effective way to counter a culture of corruption. 
 
Politics in Kampong Cham: SRP Up, FUNCINPEC Out 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Grove met with provincial-level officials from the 
FUNCINPEC (FCP) and Sam Rainsy (SRP) parties.  All made clear that 
politicking for the July 2008 national elections is already well 
underway.  The FUNCINPEC officials nervously tried to explain away 
recent defections (Ref B) and highlight their "royalist" character, 
while wondering out loud if reconciliation with either Prince 
Ranarridh or the Sam Rainsy Party is possible.  The Sam Rainsy 
officials expressed more confidence in their party's positioning and 
platform, but also discussed the possibility of forming a bridge to 
Kem Sokha's Human Rights party. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The staffdel took note of the changing political landscape 
in the province where Ranariddh once held his National Assembly seat 
and the parties have each controlled five seats since 2003. 
Ranariddh had since split off to form his own Norodom Ranariddh 
Party (NRP) and local FCP chairman and MP Serei Kosal explained to 
the staffdel how FUNCINPEC was going to make a comeback in the July 
elections after a poor showing in the commune council elections.  He 
argued that the "new" FUNCINPEC would attract royalists, with the 
more popular Princess Norodom Arunrasmey as prime minister 
designate.  The more modern FCP will address the needs of the people 
with a platform on corruption, land disputes, poverty, logging, 
illegal immigration and trafficking in persons, he said.  Kosal 
described recent defectors to CPP as corrupt patrons of the prince 
set on gaining money.  On funding, he said the party needed $400,000 
to run for five seats in Kampong Cham, and that the party would 
collect this from the people. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  SRP's lead parliamentarian Mao Monnyvong described the 
party's strong grassroots structure that reached down to the village 
level, saying that SRP and CPP were the only two forces in the 
province with 394 and 800 commune council seats, respectively. 
Joined by several other SRP party regulars, Monnyvong said that he 
expected some CPP tricks to divert voters in the upcoming election 
but that SRP was ready.  He expected some vote buying.  SRP was 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000075  002 OF 004 
 
 
emphasizing a concrete policy platform that was attractive to the 
rural population.  Instead of focusing on corruption, which did not 
feed farmers' families, they planned to target unemployment and 
jobs; the high prices of fertilizer, gasoline, and electricity; and 
better government service, he said.  Some at the local level were 
interested in the Khmer Rouge Tribunal, but not many.  If the trial 
were delayed, interest would flag, he observed.  As the meeting 
continued, several more SRP members came in after having conducted 
youth rallies during the weekend day.  Local party organization 
leader Nou Pisakha said that SRP was trying hard to attract the 
youth vote.  (COMMENT:  The group projected strength in numbers and 
confidence in the results they were achieving with their 
organizational work at the grass roots.  END COMMENT.) 
 
Sam Rainsy:  Confident Going it Alone 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  At the Sam Rainsy Party headquarters later in the day, 
SRP President Sam Rainsy related to the staffdel the strong support 
the party won in last April's commune council elections, with SRP 
winning 25 percent of the total vote and gaining almost an equal 
percentage of all commune council seats.  The balance of power at 
the local level was now shifting to the SRP and the CPP.  He did not 
see FCP regaining its strength.  In many places, the people are now 
turning to the SRP to solve their problems, he said.  On former FCP 
leaders, he said Ranariddh was "too greedy" and Sirivudh "too weak" 
to make a difference.  They are "princes without principle," he 
said.  King Sihamoni was not involved in politics, as he was "too 
scared." 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  On the Human Rights Party (HRP), Rainsy said that Khem 
Sokha had initially capitalized on his work for the human rights 
center, but now people were less enthusiastic about HRP.  At the 
same time members from FCP, NRP and even CPP were moving to the Sam 
Rainsy Party. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Rainsy described in detail the latest democratic 
processes in the SRP, which now had elected representatives from 
some 11,000 villages nationwide (out of 13,000).  The village 
councils selected commune council units, and the organization kept 
going up from districts to provinces to the national level.  Hence, 
the national party had become stronger and was attracting good 
leaders.  A new generation of leaders was making SRP stronger, he 
said.  The launch of an SRP youth movement was also strengthening 
the party.  Two thirds of Cambodia's population was under 33 and in 
the national elections, 1.5 million voters would be first-time 
voters.  This new group was very receptive to SRP's message on job 
creation, education, living conditions, and stronger rule of law, he 
remarked. 
 
Less Election Violence; Khmer Rouge Tribunal 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Rainsy remarked that he was happy that the political 
climate was now marked by less violence, and this had showed that 
CPP had changed its strategy.  They would manage the voter lists and 
might pressure some not to vote, he said.  He requested that the 
international community help ensure open elections, including with 
some long-term observers.  He strongly endorsed distribution of 
national ID cards as a method to protect voters' rights on polling 
day.  He also worried that CPP would bring in those not entitled to 
vote on election day. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  On the Khmer Rouge Tribunal, Rainsy said that he 
regretted many at the lower level who "acted with zeal" were not 
being tried.  He also noted that he was surprised to see the five KR 
leaders already detained and charged and thought they would not have 
been charged until after the July elections.  The events of the KR 
era is embarrassing to the government and to China, he said, and SRP 
must make use of it. 
 
¶11. (SBU)  During a dinner for Grove's former interlocutors hosted 
by the Ambassador, neither Rainsy nor Kem Sokha seemed interested in 
reaching out to the other.  Conversation between the two was 
minimal, although Rainsy -- addressing questions posed by civil 
society representatives -- asserted that the plethora of small 
parties competing in the election divides the vote and benefits the 
CPP.  Rainsy continued a theme he raised in a smaller, pre-dinner 
meeting with Grove, expressing concern that the CPP has already won 
the election by disenfranchising potential voters and manipulating 
the voters' lists.  He did, however, predict that there will be less 
political violence and outright fraud, reiterating that the CPP has 
changed its methods.  Dinner guests agreed that Cambodia has become 
more open for people to express opinions and even complain about 
government officials by name.  It is still a difficult place, with a 
complex political landscape, but change will come as people see 
their opportunities being limited by corruption and/or inept 
governance and begin to vocalize complaints. 
 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000075  003 OF 004 
 
 
"Next Generation": Views on KRT, Leadership 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Theary Seng from the Center for Social Development (CSD) 
and Youk Chhang from the Documentation Center (DC-CAM) expressed the 
opinion that the Khmer Rouge Tribunal (ECCC) is playing a crucial 
role in shifting peoples' comfort with raising difficult subjects. 
Seng said public opinion shifted when the four additional arrests 
followed the (predictable) detention of Duch; up to that point, 
people didn't believe, but now the tribunal process had opened up a 
discussion which caused even former King Sihanouk publicly to 
address allegations.  Grove noted some individuals with whom he 
spoke still did not believe, citing negative experiences with the 
corrupt Cambodian court system and doubting that the KRT could be 
different.  Seng argued that the KRT was generating a new level of 
attention to rule of law issues and providing a context for 
discussions about Cambodian history, justice and human rights. 
 
¶13. (SBU) The dinner guests also discussed the "next generation" of 
possible CPP leaders, focusing on the children of today's elite. 
Hun Sen's son Hun Manet was mentioned as playing an increased role. 
Grove had the opportunity to meet Manet prior to departure. 
 
UNDP on Election Preparations 
----------------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) At the UNDP's governance unit, Aamir Arain noted that the 
UNDP had opted out of a Ministry of Interior (MOI) program to erase 
presumed ghost voters from the voter registration lists, noting that 
complaints had reduced the 650,000-plus names down to 635,000 names. 
 He suspected at least 250,000 names slated to be erased were of 
eligible voters.  He could not say how many of those 250,000 might 
be dual-registered and thus still have the right to cast a ballot on 
election day.  But he characterized the evidence used to erase names 
as weak and used the phrase "calculated manipulation" to describe 
the efforts of local officials in the process. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) UNDP reviewed its ongoing efforts to get all eligible 
voters national ID cards by election day using U.S.-based Datacard 
company and high-technology identification software.  UNDP has 
successfully moved the management of ID cards into the secure MOI 
compound, whereas before identities were in the private servers of 
private Chinese-owned companies.  Arain said some 350,000 ID cards 
were produced but not distributed and that another 100,000 were 
still in the pre-production pipeline.  (COMMENT:  We understand that 
the UNDP is using its considerable budget leverage to push for 
speeding up national ID distribution.  The embassy will continue to 
follow this issue closely and use its influence at high levels to 
ensure the best possible ID distribution.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶16.  (SBU)  Noting the vulnerability of use of the temporary ID 
(form 1018) on election day, which are certified by commune chiefs 
(mostly CPP), Arain said UNDP would be helping with election 
observer training.  On media, he explained that a 20-minute election 
program would air on national television each day during the 
one-month election campaign and that the NEC - not the government 
controlled stations - would allocate time on this prime-time show 
according to a formula that gives CPP and SRP about equal time, and 
the other parties lesser portions.  Arain also described a one-hour 
"Equity" program being aired since November that covers 
election-related issues, and follows Monday lunchtime news and is 
repeated in a Sunday prime time slot.  While not related to 
political parties, it has a strong community programming format and 
includes interviews with prominent parliamentarians (including Sam 
Rainsy).  Given deficiencies and shortcomings in the electoral 
process to date, Arain said that the elections could not be 
described as "free and fair" but only as "operationally very good" 
-- assuming no major problems in the run up to the elections and on 
election day. 
 
¶17. (SBU)  Comment:  One dinner guest, noting that the CPP appears 
to be quite popular with the youth, commented that expectations in 
Cambodia are quite low and things are going well.  The real question 
as Cambodia moves forward is whether economic development, a 
decrease in political violence, and an increase in "political space" 
mean that a reasonably satisfied electorate supports the status quo 
perceived as bringing them these benefits or whether these changes 
can be shaped into opportunities by the political opposition. 
Unfortunately, the various parties of the opposition devote 
significant time and energy to sniping at each other.  In a country 
with a complex formula for allocating seats in the National Assembly 
and where personal animosities play a large role in party decisions, 
the "real question" may never get asked and party sniping may leave 
a clear path for continued CPP dominance.  In the meantime, it is 
important to continue to look for agents of change, like the lowly 
pig farmers, who are willing to speak up against corruption when it 
threatens their livelihood.  Incremental progress can be achieved in 
just governance and economic growth, to the benefits of Cambodians, 
the region, and the U.S.  But, it requires diligence and a clear and 
 
PHNOM PENH 00000075  004 OF 004 
 
 
consistent U.S. policy shared by the executive and legislative 
branches.  As the departing staffdel noted, "the opportunities are 
here." 
 
Paul Grove has cleared this cable. 
 
Mussomeli