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C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA POST:  3RD EDITION, VOLUME II 
 
REF: A. (A) PANAMA 34 (AND PREVIOUS) 
     ¶B. (B) PANAMA 41 
 
Classified By: POLCOUNS Brian R. Naranjo.  Reasons: 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) The Panama Post is coming to you a few days early this 
week.  State's Director for Central American Affairs hits the 
ground January 17 for a few days of scrounging around the 
Panamanian political scene as well as to follow up on the 
Regional Healthcare Training Center, attend the Omar Moreno 
Foundation's baseball gala, and reach out to anti-corruption 
activists.  In this edition, our headlines are: 
 
-- First Lady Vivian de Torrijos comes knocking; 
-- Former President Guillermo Endara wins Moral Vanguard of 
the Nation (VMP) primary; and 
-- First VP and FM Samuel Lewis predicts "no surprises" when 
governing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) go the polls 
on January 20. 
 
Stay tuned for next week's special edition -- The Director's 
Cut -- in which the Panama Post will dish on political 
insight garnered during our director's visit. 
 
-------------------------------- 
First Lady on the Campaign Stump 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) DCM opened the front door to his residence on the 
evening of January 14 to unexpectedly find on his stoop First 
Lady Vivian Fernandez de Torrijos going door to door seeking 
support for her campaign to become a member of the National 
Directors' Committee (CDN) of the governing Revolutionary 
Democratic Party (PRD).   Equally surprised to find the 
Embassy's Number 2 at the door, the First Lady exchanged 
pleasantries, demurred on an invitation to come in, and soon 
departed to knock on more doors in the upper class, former 
base housing complex of Albrook. Seeing a crowd waving signs 
and chanting outside the DCM's residence, an Embassy officer 
who lives near by nearly alerted post's Regional Security 
Office (RSO) to inform them of the "demonstration," only to 
realize that ample security -- the First Lady's security -- 
was already on hand. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Comment:  Such door-to-door campaigning is not 
common in Panama City, though it is very common in Panama's 
rural interior. According to the Panama Post's most seasoned 
analyst, one never knows who might open the door.  While 
bumping into the U.S. DCM is innocuous enough -- Vivian did 
not offer to document the DCM so he could vote -- the chances 
of having a political opponent or enemy open the door are 
generally believed to be to high.  Most of the district in 
which the First Lady lives consists of slums -- Santa Ana, 
San Felipe, and El Chorrillo -- not the higher class areas 
such as Albrook and the Ancon area where the President and 
First Lady reside.  The Panama Post wonders whether her 
security detail will traipse through El Chorrillo on a 
similar door-to-door effort.  If we hear, we'll let you know. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Endara Sweeps VMP Presidential Primary 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) To nobody's surprise, former President Guillermo 
Endara handily won the presidential primary of the Moral 
Vanguard of the Nation (VMP) party on July 13.  Endara ran 
unopposed and garnered some 8,000 votes.  Endara is now the 
first formally declared presidential candidate for Panama's 
May 2009 general elections.  Interestingly, this victory was 
also Endara's first primary win in his long political career. 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: "We're broke and cannot afford a big 
turn-out-the-vote effort.  We're only spending about USD 
10,000 on this primary," Endara's right-hand man, Menalco 
Solis, told POLCOUNS on January 11.  VMP polling stations 
were placed in out of the way corners primarily along the 
Panama City-Colon corridor where there were pockets of VMP 
members.  Endara, who lives in downtown Panama City, had to 
travel to the small town of Tocumen, home of Panama City's 
international airport, to vote.  Politically, Endara's 
presidential primary victory will make it more difficult for 
him to join a coalition to support another candidate's run 
for the presidency as he would have to walk away from loyal 
supporters who formally blessed him as their candidate. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Lewis:  "No Surprises" Expected in PRD poll 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) "There will not be any surprises on Sunday (January 
20)," First VP and FM Samuel Lewis predicted to Ambassador on 
January 16.  PRD members go to the polls on January 20 to 
selected some 4,200 delegates who will in turn elect the 
parties future leadership, including its National Executive 
Committee (CEN).  Lewis, who is running himself on a ticket 
in the upper class Panama City neighborhood of San Francisco, 
predicted that some 200,000 PRD rank and file, nearly one 
third of the party's registered members, would go to the 
polls. Nearly one out of every eleven or twelve party members 
is running for a party job, Panama City Mayor (and Lewis' 
cousin) Juan Carlos Navarro explained to Ambassador on 
January 10.  Noting that delegates can switch their support 
once elected, Lewis downplayed the likelihood that any party 
notable would be able to claim a "surprise" victory.  "The 
real game begins once the delegates have been chosen.  Who 
knows what will emerge from the delegates?"  Lewis added. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment:  The Panama Post surmises that Lewis was 
likely aware of POLCOUNS's January 13 meeting with former 
President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez Balladares during which 
meeting El Toro smugly asserted that there would be a 
surprise, in his favor, on January 20 (REFTEL B).  On January 
17, Panama City broad sheet daily La Estrella's political 
gossip suggested that it was estimated that El Toro would 
take thirty percent of the delegates that would be elected on 
January 20.  While Lewis is technically right that delegates 
could switch their support once elected, many of these 
would-be delegates are campaigning with the political and 
financial support of major PRD heavy hitters.  The reality is 
that there are few true PRD free agents on the field. Lewis 
and Perez Balladares agree on one point though:  the real 
game, as far as the internal PRD elections are concerned, 
begins once the delegates have been chosen.  Was Lewis trying 
to lower expectations?  Was he trying to lay seeds of doubt 
regarding El Toro's confident assertion that there would 
indeed be a surprise?  Only one thing is for sure:  either El 
Toro or Lewis is going to be surprised on Sunday. 
Ultimately, this internal PRD game will have major impacts on 
the PRD's eventual presidential nominee and the broader 
political panorama. 
EATON