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FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7094
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000006 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: NDP PLANS TO RUN "LARGEST CAMPAIGN" EVER 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack 
Layton has announced that the NDP "will run the largest 
campaign that our party has ever run in its history" in the 
next federal elections, which many observers believe will 
take place in 2008.  Although it holds the fewest seats of 
the four major parties in the House of Commons, the NDP 
significantly increased its representation in the last 
federal elections, and hopes to build on momentum from a 2007 
by-election victory in Quebec.  With strong ties to organized 
labor and a platform focused on social justice, the NDP has 
built its reputation on supporting Canada's working families. 
 The NDP continues to call for the immediate withdrawal of 
Canadian troops from Afghanistan, but is not an influential 
voice in foreign affairs.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
MORE PREPARED THAN EVER... 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) In a year-end interview, NDP leader Jack Layton said 
that the NDP is already gearing up for "what appears to be an 
increasingly likely election" in 2008.  He admitted, however, 
that the timing of a federal election will depend largely on 
when the Liberal Party decides finally to oppose the 
government on a confidence measure, rather than maintain its 
policy of "whipped abstentions."  Layton claimed that "we're 
more prepared than we've ever been.  We'll run the largest 
campaign that our party has ever run in its history."  Layton 
added that he had been especially encouraged by the NDP's 
victory in a September by-election in Outremont, Quebec. 
Layton commented that the Quebec victory would help cast the 
NDP as a national party, since "you can't really offer 
yourself as a governing team if you're not able to bring 
forward voices from Quebec.  That's always been an obstacle 
to our growth." Layton voiced optimism about the NDP's 
national prospects, claiming that "what I'm seeing is that 
more people have their door open to a conversation with New 
Democrats."  The NDP will begin its election preparations in 
mid-January with an Ottawa meeting of NDP federal and 
provincial leaders from across the country. 
 
--------------------- 
...BUT IS THE PUBLIC? 
--------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In any future elections, the NDP likely plans 
prominently to contrast the articulate Layton -- a former 
Toronto Councilor who became NDP leader in 2003 -- with 
Liberal leader Stephane Dion, whom opponents have labeled as 
a mild-mannered academic with weak leadership skills and a 
shaky grasp of English.  According to a November 2007 SES 
poll, 17 percent of Canadians rated Layton as the best choice 
for Prime Minister, compared with only 13 percent who chose 
Dion, while 37 percent supported Conservative Prime Minister 
Stephen Harper.  A November 2007 online Angus-Reid poll had 
even more striking results, with 34 pct saying that Layton 
would make a good Prime Minister, and only 23 supporting 
Dion.  The Liberals will likely counter-claim that support 
for the NDP in the 2006 elections effectively resulted in the 
Conservatives' victory, and will stress that a vote for the 
NDP is really a vote for the Conservatives next time around 
as well. 
 
¶4. (U) While holding only 30 seats in the Commons (the fewest 
of the four major parties), the NDP's representation is up 
significantly from the 19 seats it had won in 2004.  However, 
according to a December Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey, 
NDP support nationwide was only 15 percent, compared with 32 
percent for the Liberals and 30 percent for the 
Conservatives.  Even this level is a drop from the 17 percent 
support the NDP received in the 2006 elections. 
Qsupport the NDP received in the 2006 elections. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
NDP ESPOUSES SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, AFGHANISTAN WITHDRAWAL 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5. (U) The NDP has always billed itself as the defender of 
working families.  It supports increasing access to 
affordable housing, securing public health care, protecting 
collective bargaining rights, establishing universal access 
to child care, and generally expanding social assistance 
programs.  On foreign policy, the NDP supports greater 
assistance for Africa and other poverty-stricken areas.  The 
party is critical of free trade, calling for the dismantling 
of NAFTA and blaming free trade policies for the loss of 
Canadian manufacturing jobs.  The environment is also one of 
the NDP's major issues, with the party attacking the 
Conservatives for joining the United States and Japan in 
insisting that a climate change agreement include all major 
emitters, including China and India.  The NDP has also called 
the Liberals weak on climate change, criticizing their 
decision not to vote against the Conservatives' October 2007 
 
OTTAWA 00000006  002 OF 002 
 
 
"Speech from the Throne" in which the government announced 
Canada would abandon its commitments under the Kyoto 
Protocol. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The NDP remains the only political party calling for 
the immediate withdrawal of Canadian troops from Afghanistan. 
 Layton has charged that the recent turmoil in Pakistan 
further demonstrates that Canada is on the wrong track in 
Afghanistan, saying that the country should focus on aid and 
reconstruction efforts rather than military operations.  In a 
December meeting with PolMinCouns and poloff, NDP foreign 
affairs critic Paul Dewar insisted that the NDP would remain 
adamant against the continuation of the Canadian Forces' 
mission in Afghanistan -- not just in Kandahar -- whatever 
the Manley Panel might recommend, and he predicted that 
Afghanistan would be a major issue in the next elections. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. (U) The NDP has no hope in the foreseeable future of 
winning enough seats to form a government, but may be able to 
hold on to its current level of support and even do better, 
given the persistently weak popularity of both Conservative 
leader Stephen Harper and Dion.  The NDP has carved out a 
niche among traditional leftist and working class Canadian 
voters, and will remain a minor force in the next election, 
although it needs to be watchful of the even smaller Green 
Party, which is attempting to garner support from the same 
pool of environmentally-minded liberal voters.  The NDP's 
primary focus will remain on domestic policy, and, with its 
rigid stance on the Afghanistan issue, the NDP has 
essentially taken itself out of a responsible debate on the 
future of this mission, as well as other foreign policies of 
even less concern to its core constituencies. 
 
Visit Canada,s Economy and Environment Forum at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/can ada 
 
BREESE