UNCLAS    SENSITIVE     NICOSIA 00048

SIPDIS
CXNICOSI:
    ACTION: DCM EXEC
    INFO:   DAO RAO ECON POL

DISSEMINATION: EXEC
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: CDA:JZIMMERMAN
DRAFTED: POL:AMYIALLOUROU
CLEARED: POL:GMACRIS

VZCZCNCI345
RR RUEHC RUEHZL RUCNDT RUEHBS
DE RUEHNC #0048/01 0221418
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221418Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8520
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1056
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES GEARING UP FOR LAST MONTH OF CAMPAIGN 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  January 18 marked the beginning of the end of 
the Cypriot presidential race, with candidates formally depositing 
their paperwork with electoral authorities.  With no clear favorite, 
the campaign is bound to become uglier and more personal in coming 
weeks.  Incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos is preparing to up the attack 
on AKEL challenger Dimitris Christofias, emphasizing the latter's 
communist, anti-European-integration background while also seeking 
to expose inconsistencies in his positions and policies.  For his 
part, Christofias has chosen to ignore third-place candidate Ioannis 
Kasoulides (DISY), and is consumed instead with criticizing the 
President's "woeful" Cyprus Problem negotiation record.  Kasoulides 
is attempting to stay above the fray, looking to the future and 
aiming to "win back Cyprus's allies in the EU and broader 
international community."  A handful of additional fringe candidates 
also have entered the race, although their likely impact looks 
miniscule.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
Ballot Grows Larger in Size 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Nine presidential hopefuls officially submitted their 
candidacies at Nicosia's Hilton Park Hotel on January 18.  Alongside 
front-running President Tassos Papadopoulos, AKEL challenger 
Dimitris Christofias, and DISY standard-bearer Ioannis Kasoulides -- 
each polling between 29 and 33 percent of the vote -- are renegade 
European Parliamentarian Marios Matsakis (two percent), former 
Agriculture Minister Costas Themistocleous (less than one percent), 
and four fringe candidates.  The Election Service announced that 
515,994 Cypriots were eligible to vote in the two-round elections. 
Officials confidently asserted that final results for each round 
will be available just three hours after polls close. 
 
------------------------------- 
On their Marks for a Close Race 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Analysts remain unable to predict the outcome with 
certainty, since most polls reveal the three candidates separated by 
less than the margin of statistical error.  Moreover, experts claim 
that traditional Cypriot voting behaviors are in flux, a product of 
the 2004 Annan Plan referendum which saw many rank-and-file 
disobeying their leaders' voting instructions and upsetting 
traditionally high cohesion.  Further, socioeconomic changes on the 
island and international political developments over the past two 
decades have weakened formerly iron-clad ideological boundaries, 
resulting in an inability to produce safe electoral predictions. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Papadopoulos-Christofias Confrontation Gets Uglier 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Papadopoulos and Christofias teams are convinced they 
will advance to the February 24 runoff; attacking each other daily, 
they mostly ignore Kasoulides.  In an attempt to co-opt 
lower-income, AKEL-supportive voters, Papadopoulos has abandoned 
fiscal austerity measures enacted to ensure entry into the Eurozone, 
and has announced generous government spending packages.  According 
to Papadopoulos insider Polakis Sarris, the President will announce 
at least three new givebacks in the run-up to the February 17 first 
round.  Sarris also prefaced a full-scale attack to be unleashed 
against Christofias.  "Powerful" TV spots will highlight the AKEL 
leader's communist credentials, opposition to the Euro, and policy 
inconsistencies both before and after he left the government 
coalition in July 2007. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Assuming that Kasoulides will fail to advance, 
Papadopoulos's team is already soliciting support from leading DISY 
figures.  Sarris named three prominent "turncoats" who allegedly 
have pledged to announce their support for Papadopoulos once the 
first round results are announced.  The idea is to preempt DISY 
leader Nikos Anastassiades from rallying the party behind 
Christofias, as he allegedly intends to do (supposedly in exchange 
for Christofias's job as House Speaker).  Dismissing polling that 
predicts a neck-in-neck run-off, Sarris boldly predicts a landslide 
victory for the incumbent. 
 
¶6.  (U) In light of Papadopoulos's recent social spending binge, 
Christofias no longer is attacking the President's austere economic 
stewardship.  Instead, he has chosen to focus on the Cyprus Problem, 
attempting to upset Papadopoulos's image as a skillful negotiator 
and blaming him for bringing the island to the brink of partition. 
Elements of the Annan Plan negotiation have taken center stage in 
the AKEL leader's effort.  For example, he lambasted the President 
for failing to capitalize on an alleged offer -- made during the 
March 2004 talks in Burgenstock, Switzerland -- to return the 
Karpass Peninsula to Greek Cypriot control, implying that 
Papadopoulos did not wish to improve the Annan Plan and make it 
acceptable to G/Cs.  Christofias has pledged to continue his 
"revelations" in coming weeks. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
AKEL, DIKO:  Returning Disillusioned Voters to the Fold 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Polls indicate that between 12 and 14 percent of AKEL 
voters have defected to Papadopoulos' camp, threatening 
Christofias's candidacy.  In response, the party of late has engaged 
in a vigorous door door-to-door campaign in even the most remote of 
communities, attempting to win them back.  In pounding the pavement, 
AKEL reportedly has registered 7,000 new voters in the last three 
months.  Defections also trouble the Papadopoulos camp; media report 
declining cohesion rates (to 65 percent) within coalition party 
EDEK.  EDEK faithful with strong leftist ties are particularly 
susceptible to AKEL-orchestrated recruitment, insiders claim. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
DISY:  We Can Cultivate Allies, Win Respect 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) With Papadopoulos and Christofias rutting in the mud, 
Kasoulides lately has attempted to burnish his statesman's role by 
showcasing close ties to Europe's preeminent leaders.  Cyprus's 
relations with the EU and broader international community have 
suffered during Papadopoulos's administration, he charges; he 
promises to right them during his tenure.  Embassy contacts report 
that Kasoulides must quietly plan meetings with other EU leaders, 
since he fears the government (read, Papadopoulos) might intervene 
to cancel them.  The DISY candidate is not ignoring substance during 
his trips abroad; after returning from a January 15 meeting with 
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, he declared that, if elected, 
Cyprus's would seek membership in NATO's Partnership for Peace 
(PFP). 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) With the presidential race remaining too close to call, we 
plan to leave our crystal ball locked up in the closet.  That said, 
a Papadopoulos-Christofias runoff on February 24 seems the safest 
bet.  In such a scenario, a battle to co-opt DISY voters in the 
run-up to Round II would wage loudly.  Leaders like Kasoulides and 
Anastassiades will face a rock-and-a-hard-place choice:  to support 
Papadopoulos, despised for his perceived arrogance and anti-DISY 
diatribes, or to back AKEL, the long-time ideological enemy. 
Opinions vary over which way they'll turn -- and our contacts 
believe that many party faithful will ignore their instructions 
anyway.  The worst-case scenario has Anastassiades endorsing 
Christofias, only to see him lose the run-off owing to rank-and-file 
DISY support for the President.  A bloody power struggle would 
result, possibly splitting the party permanently.