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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000239 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS ROUTED, BJP FORMS GOVERNMENT IN HIMACHAL 
 
REF: A. 07 NEW DELHI 5392 
     ¶B. 07 MUMBAI 722 
     ¶C. 07 NEW DELHI 4835 
 
¶1.  (SBU) On January 9, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 
formed the state government in Himachal Pradesh (HP) after 
routing the Congress Party in a head-to-head contest.  Uttar 
Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati,s party did not make any 
impression, winning only one seat and failing to replicate in 
Himachal the dalit-brahmin coalition that brought her to 
power in Uttar Pradesh.  The Congress was swept out of power 
in HP for reasons that went beyond anti-incumbency.  The 
party turned in an uninspiring performance in the face of an 
aggressive BJP campaign.  It was hobbled by allegations of 
government corruption.  The choice of Sonia Gandhi,s former 
bodyguard and her cook,s son as candidates was seen by 
voters as contempt and condescension towards the state.  The 
party also suffered from infighting and bickering.  The HP 
victory adds to a string of state election wins for the BJP 
and losses for the Congress in 2007.  Coming on the heels of 
its overwhelming win in Gujarat, the HP result helps give the 
BJP strong momentum going into a series of state election in 
2008 and the national before May 2009.  For the Congress, its 
2007 electoral setbacks in the states and its bitter squabble 
with United Progressive Alliance (UPA) allies over the 
U.S.-India civil nuclear deal have weakened the party 
considerably.  There is a growing perception among the 
electorate that a spineless Congress is unable to stand up to 
the Communists and the allies, who are in effect running the 
government.  There are signs already that the Left parties 
and Mayawati are trying to distance themselves from a 
weakened Congress ahead of the national elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
BJP Government Takes Over 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Nine Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) legislators took 
the oath of office on January 9 and joined the cabinet of 
Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, who led 
the BJP to a crushing defeat of the Congress Party in state 
assembly elections held in December.  Dhumal had himself been 
sworn in on December 30 in the presence of the BJP party 
leadership, including Leader of the Opposition L.K. Advani 
and four chief ministers from states ruled by the BJP or BJP 
allies. 
 
Poll Was No-Contest 
------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Despite the pre-poll expectation of a fairly even 
result that could have broken either way, the BJP routed the 
incumbent Congress Party government in this small, 
mountainous state, securing a 41-23 edge in the state 
assembly.  Independent candidates won three seats and Uttar 
Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati,s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 
bagged one seat. 
 
¶4.  (U) The Congress rout was comprehensive.  It lost in most 
areas of the state.  All but three of its ministers were 
defeated.  Observers believe that anti-incumbency, always a 
factor in Indian elections, played a role in the Congress 
defeat but the scale of the loss points to other factors as 
well.  Most agree that the Congress Party turned in a 
lack-luster performance in the face of an aggressive BJP 
campaign.  The Congress Party,s electoral organization in 
Himachal was simply insufficient and lacked spark, whereas 
BJP pulled out all the stops. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Allegations of government corruption appeared to 
have stuck and were a factor in the poor Congress results. 
What was even more damaging, however, was perception among 
the voters that the Congress high command in Delhi was 
contemptuous and condescending of the state.   Eyebrows were 
raised when the Congress Party gave tickets to Sonia 
Gandhi,s former bodyguard and her cook,s son.  A video of a 
sitting Himachal Congress Minister consorting with 
prostitutes at a dance party added to a sense that the 
Congress party was responsible for creating an unseemly and 
 
NEW DELHI 00000239  002 OF 002 
 
 
tasteless governance environment in the state.  The party 
also suffered from infighting and bickering in the run up to 
the elections.  Some disaffected Congress leaders turned to 
the BJP or the BSP after they failed to get nominated for 
elections by the Congress.  The squabbling intensified 
immediately after the elections results were announced on 
December 28, with different groups pointing fingers at each 
other. 
 
BSP Was Non-Factor 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Mayawati,s BSP failed to make any impression.  It 
contested all 68 assembly seats but won only one.  Its state 
leader and Chief Ministerial candidate, the former Congress 
minister Vijay Singh Mankotia, was soundly defeated in his 
home constituency.  Not only was the BSP unable to win any 
seats, it did not appear to tilt the results in individual 
constituencies either.  Most of the BSP candidates, including 
Mankotia, were Congress and BJP rejects rather committed BSP 
partymen trying to forge the dalit-brahmin coalition that led 
Mayawati to power in Uttar Pradesh. 
 
Comment: National Implications 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Although it is a small state with only four 
parliamentary seats, the Himachal victory adds to a string of 
state election wins for the BJP and losses for the Congress 
in 2007. Coming on the heels of Narendra Modi's smashing 
success in Gujarat (reftels), the BJP has built a powerful 
head of steam heading into polls in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, 
Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan in 2008 and the national 
elections before May 2009.  For the Congress, its 2007 
electoral setbacks in the states and its bitter squabble with 
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) allies over the U.S.-India 
civil nuclear deal have weakened the party considerably. 
There are only three states today -- Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, 
Delhi -- where the Congress Party is in power on its own and 
without coalition partners, a humbling come down for a party 
that enjoyed absolute power at the center and in virtually 
every state legislature only 20 years ago. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) There is a growing perception among the electorate 
that a spineless Congress is unable to stand up to the 
Communists and the allies, who not only exercise the veto but 
are effectively dictating government policy.  In this 
vulnerable condition, the Congress will become more cautious 
until the next national elections.  It is unlikely to pursue 
any bold domestic or foreign policy initiatives.  As the 
elections approach, we will see more populist proposals 
emanating from the goernment.  The Congress will revert to 
its socialist sloganeering and its tired old practice of 
playing vote bank politics.  The old guard in the party will 
press for ruinously wasteful sops to the rural poor and 
implementation of the Sachar report's findings, measures that 
are not only resented by the middle classes but are also 
sneered at by the intended beneficiaries who, while happily 
accepting them, view  them as cynical electoral ploys.  A 
good indicator of the toxicity of the Congress in the run up 
to the next election will come if we begin to see allies 
picking confrontations with the Congress and threatening to 
or actually withdrawing from the coalition.  There are signs 
already that the Left parties and Mayawati,s BSP are trying 
to distance themselves from the Congress. 
 
MULFORD