O 171621Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4282
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
CJTF HOA

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000198 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENT COMPOSITION - A 
DELICATE BALANCE OF FORCES 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 00185 
     ¶B. 07 NAIROBI 04759 
     ¶C. 07 NAIROBI 04647 
     ¶D. 07 NAIROBI 01150 
     ¶E. 03 SECSTATE 04208 
 
SUMMARY 
 ------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Unlike Kenya's contentious presidential election, 
the parliamentary elections proceeded relatively smoothly and 
with a clear and credible outcome. With 207 of 210 
constituencies reporting (3 constituencies will be re-run), 
Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) won 99 of the 
207 seats; making it by far the largest party in Kenya's 10th 
Parliament. Combined with its NARC ally, ODM will control at 
least 102 seats.  Despite its impressive showing and the 
election of an ODM Speaker and Deputy Speaker at the 
Parliament's January 15 session (reftel A), ODM control of 
parliament is not a forgone conclusion.  Although President 
Kibaki's PNU party won only 43 seats, combined with its 
coalition parties and the January 8 agreement of Kalonzo 
Musyoka's ODM party to enter government with PNU, the 
president's supporters will possess at least 94 seats.  Eight 
micro-parties - each with two MPs or less, round out the 
composition of the incoming 10th Parliament. Including the 12 
nominated members of parliament (allocated according to 
relative party strength), but subtracting the seat previously 
held by the new Speaker (who must resign), ODM and its 
coalition partner currently control 106 seats; five shy of a 
majority. (Until by-elections are held, the total number of 
seats is 218 -- 206 elected and 12 nominated.)  PNU and its 
partners will control at least 100 (94 elected and six 
nominated).   Fifteen women candidates were elected to the 
Tenth Parliament - a low number in absolute terms, but a 
nearly 100 per cent increase over 2002. The mood of the 
voters was decidedly anti-incumbent: only 30 percent of MPs 
from the 9th Parliament were returned by voters.  Twenty-one 
out of 32 sitting Ministers and 22 of 40 assistant ministers 
lost their seats. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Given the nature of Kenyan politics, PNU still hopes 
to find the additional votes needed to form a majority: it is 
not clear whether they would come from unaffiliated 
micro-parties or defecting ODM MPs. For either ODM or PNU, 
ruling with a slim majority would be fraught with 
difficulties as either one would be open to blackmail by its 
coalition partners, destabilizing its hold on the 
legislature.  Contacts agree that the chances of an 
ODM-sponsored  no-confidence vote succeeding is exceptionally 
small.  Thus, the most likely scenario for the Tenth 
Parliament is a shifting majority on a vote-by-vote basis. 
The result will either be gridlock with minimal legislative 
achievement or a successful session based on an agreed 
legislative agenda, including constitutional and electoral 
reform. This is the option that we continue to promote and we 
hope that wiser and calmer heads on each side will agree. 
End Summary 
 
Valid parliamentary results 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Although the outcome of the presidential elections 
is highly controversial, we believe the parliamentary 
election results are a more valid reflection of the Kenyan 
voters' will.  This conclusion is supported by the following: 
the presence of multiple party agents in all polling stations 
(in party strongholds, such as pro-ODM Nyanza province or 
pro-PNU Central province, there was significant competition 
at the parliamentary level and minimal competition at the 
presidential level); the large measure of agreement between 
vote figures announced by the ECK in Nairobi with those 
announced at constituency-level tally centers (which were 
empowered to announce official and final results for local 
councilor and parliamentary races); and the general lack of 
complaints from losing parliamentary candidates. Taken 
together, these factors give us a high degree of confidence 
in the outcome of parliamentary elections. 
 
And the ballot says: ODM trounces PNU, but... 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Voters handed ODM a clear victory over PNU in 
parliamentary elections. There are 210 constituencies, but 
only 206 seats are currently filled.  Voting in 2 
constituencies (Kakamunji/Nairobi and Kilgoris/Rift Valley) 
was annulled due to election-day violence; another will be 
re-run due to a tied vote count (Wajir North/NorthEastern), 
and a fourth will be re-run to replace the newly elected 
Speaker (Emuhaya/Western). Of these four constituencies we 
expect ODM to win in Kilgoris and Emuhaya, while Wajir and 
Kakamunji could go either way.  Currently ODM candidates 
control 98 of the directly elected seats. PNU won the second 
largest number of seats with 43.  ODM-K won the third largest 
number of seats with 16, followed by PNU-affiliate KANU with 
14 seats.   PNU-affiliates Safina and NARC-K won five and 
four seats, respectively, while ODM-allied NARC won three. 
 
ODM         98 
PNU                     43 
ODM-K  (in government with PNU)     16 
KANU   (PNU coalition)              14 
SAFINA (PNU coalition)              5 
NARC-K (PNU coalition)              4 
NARC   (ODM ally)             3 
FORD-P (PNU coalition)              3 
Chama Cha Uzalendo                  2 
Party of Independent Candidates     2 
New FORD-K       (PNU coalition)    2 
Democratic Party (PNU coalition)    2 
Sisi Kwa Sisi    (PNU coalition)    2 
 
In addition, Mazingira (the Greens), FORD-K, FORD-Asili (all 
PNU coalition members), PPK, KENDA, United Democratic 
Movement, KADDU, PDP, NLP, and KADU-Asili (all unaligned) 
each won one seat. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In addition to the 210 directly-elected seats, an 
additional 12 appointed seats are allocated to the strongest 
parties in proportion to the number of seats they hold among 
elected MPs. ODM will nominate six of the 12 seats, PNU will 
nominate three, ODM-K will nominate two; and KANU will 
nominate one. Initially, it was expected that Safina had 
earned one nominated MP slot, but the ECK ruled that ODM-K 
was entitled to two seats.  Safina has threatened a lawsuit. 
Therefore, ODM (combined with its NARC affiliate) currently 
control 107 seats, five short of a working majority.  Taking 
into account the four by-elections to be held, ODM should 
boost that number to at least 109 seats: an ODM sweep of all 
four by-elections would boost the number further to 111 seats 
- one shy of a majority. PNU and its coalition partners 
combined with ODM-K will control 100 seats. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Allocating the 12 nominated MPs has created some 
controversy within the parties that earned them, as they try 
to balance varying constituencies within their ranks. ODM 
nominated Joseph Nyaga, the only Kikuyu among its leadership, 
who lost his MP seat; Musa Sirma; Sheikh Dor - the Secretary 
General of Council of Imams and Preachers in Kenya (reftel 
D); and three women, Janet Ong'era - ODM Executive Director; 
Sofia Ahmed - a women's leader from North Eastern Province; 
and women's activist, Rachel Shebesh. PNU tried to strike a 
balance between increasing geographic diversity of the 
party's MPs with rewarding the many long-time Kibaki 
loyalists who lost their seats (or in the case of Peter 
Nyamweya did not contest the election and instead opted to 
run Kibaki's re-election campaign). In the end, PNU nominated 
former Foreign Minister Rafael Tuju (ethnic Luo), Nyamweya, 
and former Mombasa Mayor Taib Ali Taib, who failed in his bid 
to unseat top ODM leader from Mombasa Najib Balala.  We do 
not yet have information on the other nominated MPs, although 
ODM-K is expected to nominate Julia Odhiambo, who was Kalonzo 
Musyoka's vice-presidential candidate, but who lost her 
parliamentary race. 
 
Shifting parliamentary majority likely 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The parliamentary balance is tightly drawn.  The 
election of an ODM Speaker (reftel A) demonstrates that ODM 
currently has a committed majority, albeit a slim one. Both 
ODM and PNU hope they can assemble a parliamentary majority, 
at least on a vote-by-vote basis. They will compete for the 
support of unaffiliated micro-parties. Given the money-driven 
nature of Kenyan politics, the lure of ministerial positions 
and jobs for supporters in parastatals may prove irresistible 
to smaller parties. The governing party, PNU, has the 
advantage in this contest.  While MPs from any parties can 
vote with the government, a recent amendment to relevant 
legislation prevents MPs from assuming ministerial positions 
without the assent of their party (a common practice in the 
Ninth Parliament).  Given this situation, the most likely 
outcome is a shifting majority, cobbled together on a 
vote-by-vote basis.  Hopefully, wiser, calmer heads on each 
side will interpret the outcome of the Speaker election to 
mean that a successful legislative session is possible only 
if based on a legislative agenda negotiated and agreed by the 
two major parties. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Smaller non-affiliated parties are trying to 
maximize their leverage in parliament and have formed the 
Small Parties Parliamentary Group (SPPG). According to a 
USAID contractor working extensively with Parliament, 
parliamentary rules do not recognize such groupings, so the 
SPPG's impact is unclear. Government entreaties to smaller 
parties to firm up a ruling majority may undermine the 
effectiveness of this initiative. 
 
Party Strength by Region: ODM dominates 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Analysis of parliamentary results by regions shows 
ODM's breadth of support among the electorate and PNU's 
corresponding weakness. ODM won an absolute majority of 
parliamentary seats in six of Kenya's eight provinces; it won 
over two-thirds of the seats in Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, 
and Nairobi.  In contrast,  PNU was able to gain a majority 
of seats only in its Central Province stronghold. Taking its 
coalition parties into account, the PNU coalition also 
managed to carry Eastern Province (aided by ODM-K winning 15 
seats). PNU won no seats in ODM's Nyanza stronghold, only two 
in Western Province, and only 9 of Rift Valley's 49 seats. 
Even if PNU succeeds in forming a functioning parliamentary 
majority, it will be perceived as highly suspect in much of 
the country, which voted overwhelmingly for ODM.  One partial 
explanation for ODM's dominance is that, in most cases, ODM 
parliamentary candidates faced very little pro-Raila 
competition. Most voters who supported Raila for president 
also voted for ODM parliamentary candidates.  On the other 
hand, PNU parliamentary candidates were frequently opposed by 
several pro-Kibaki parliamentary candidates. Other elements 
of the PNU coalition competed amongst themselves, splitting 
their vote (reftel C). 
 
Crystal ball revisited 
---------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) As predicted in reftel B, there was a high rate of 
turnover from the Ninth to the Tenth Parliament. According to 
our information, 196 incumbents ran for election. Of the 196, 
143 (73 per cent) ran as candidates of different parties than 
they did when elected in 2002. This lack of loyalty was 
returned by voters: only 66 were returned. Altogether, only 
30 percent of the members of the 9th parliament returned to 
serve in the 10th parliament.   An extremely high number of 
sitting ministers and assistant ministers (who are required 
to be MPs) lost re-election bids.  All 32 ministers ran for 
re-election:  21 lost. Assistant Ministers fared only 
slightly better: 22 of 40 lost their parliamentary seats. As 
we predicted, (former) Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju, Labor 
Minister Newton Kulundu, Regional Development Minister Abdi 
Mohamed, Tourism Minister Morris Dzoro, and Trade Minister 
Mukhisa Kutuyi all lost. In addition, we evaluated former 
Vice President Moody Awori, former Defense Minister Njenga 
Karume, and Livestock Minister Joseph Munyao as being in 
trouble: all lost. In addition, as predicted, two MPs close 
to former President Moi also lost; his son Gideon and his 
hatchet man, Nicholas Biwott.  We were less accurate in 
predicting ODM candidates who would lose. Only Joseph Nyaga - 
the sole Kikuyu in ODM's leadership - lost his seat.  The 
others we assessed as being in trouble were carried to 
victory by the ODM parliamentary wave. 
 
Women parliamentarians: modest progress 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Fifteen women were elected to the Tenth parliament. 
Although the number of women elected to parliament remains 
low in absolute terms, it is a nearly two-fold increase over 
2002, when 8 were elected. Seven of the 15 women 
parliamentarians are from the ODM bloc, while 5 represent the 
PNU bloc. Three represent unaligned parties. The regional 
breakdown of elected women MPs is: six from Rift Valley, 
three each from Nairobi and Eastern, two from Central, and 
one from Coast. Nyanza, Northeastern and Western provinces 
failed to elect any women MPs. Several women are likely to be 
among the 12 MPs nominated by parties, so the final number of 
women MPs is likely to be higher than the total of 18 women 
MPs in the Ninth Parliament. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The 269 women running for parliament in 119 
constituencies represented 10 percent of all candidates, 
while women will constitute only 7 percent of incoming 
parliamentarians.  A slightly more positive spin is that 
women won 13 percent of all constituencies they contested, so 
they were elected in a slightly higher proportion than their 
strength as a percentage of all candidates. Significantly, 
incumbent women MPs bucked the anti-incumbent trend: of 9 
incumbent female MPs who chose to run for re-election, 5 were 
re-elected: a 55 percent success rate for women incumbents, 
compared with a 30 percent success rate for incumbents 
overall.  The lesson seems to be that, once women overcome 
the myriad difficulties Kenyan political culture presents and 
obtain a position of authority, they gain the respect and 
loyalty of their constituents. 
 
A rogues gallery?  Famous and infamous MPs 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶13. (SBU) The Tenth Parliament will have its share of 
scoundrels and a few interesting new personalities.  A check 
of consular records shows that seven incoming MPs have visa 
lookouts for involvement in money laundering or large scale 
corruption.  An ODM MP has a human trafficking hit. A second 
MP was denied a visa due to his wife's human trafficking 
activities. Two more are possible subjects of visa 
ineligibilities for criminal activity in the US.  George 
Saitoti, who is implicated in the Goldenberg financial 
mega-scandal of the 1990s, was returned to parliament and 
promoted to Minister of Internal Security - making him 
Kenya's top cop.  ODM Pentagon member William Ruto, a key 
figure in political/ethnic violence in the Rift Valley in 
1992, 1997, and post-2007 election, also returns to 
parliament. Ruto was charged in 2004 with defrauding the 
National Social Security fund in connection with illegal land 
transfers. His case has not yet come to trial. ODM's Zakayo 
Cheruiyot, implicated in Rift Valley ethnic violence and who 
is suspected of abetting International Criminal Tribunal for 
Rwanda fugitive Felicien Kabuga (reftel D),  also returns. 
Kenya's most notorious drug trafficker, John Harun Mwau, was 
elected MP on a micro-party ticket. Finally, televangelist 
and self-proclaimed "Bishop" Margaret Wanjiru Kariuki was 
elected to represent Nairobi's Starehe constituency despite 
facing allegations of bigamy. 
 
Prospects for a no-confidence vote: nil 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) Political observers are unanimous that an 
ODM-sponsored vote of no confidence in President Kibaki's 
government has an exceptionally small chance of success. 
While a successful no-confidence vote would force a re-run of 
the presidential election, it would also dissolve parliament 
and force MPs to hit the campaign trail again before they 
have a chance to replenish their campaign-depleted bank 
account. Micro-party MPs - whose support would be essential 
to the success of a no-confidence vote - are unlikely to risk 
their seats (and the nearly 1 million USD salary it brings 
over five years) to help ODM achieve its political goals. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Looking into the future, ODM's party discipline is 
strengthened by the election of its candidates as Speaker and 
Deputy Speaker.  Thus, the most likely scenario for the Tenth 
Parliament is a shifting majority on a vote-by-vote basis. 
The result will either be gridlock with minimal legislative 
achievement or a successful session based on an agreed 
legislative agenda, negotiated between the two major blocs - 
ODM and PNU, including constitutional and electoral reform. 
This is the option that we continue to promote.  We hope that 
wiser and calmer heads on each side will agree.  Once these 
reforms are achieved, the basis will exist to tackle 
fundamental underlying causes of instability - such as 
overcentralization and the land issue.  We expect President 
Kibaki to reconvene Parliament in early March, when he will 
present his government's legislative agenda. End Comment 
RANNEBERGER