VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #0186/01 0170404
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 170404Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4262
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 9811
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 5704
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 5029
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 2538
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1814
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2572
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 2498
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000186 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KE
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT ELECTS SPEAKER--A GOOD DAY FOR KENYA 
 
 
SUMMARY 
 ------- 
 
¶1. On January 15 Kenya's Tenth Parliament sat for its first 
session.  In a boisterous but mostly civil session, 
Parliament elected the Orange Democratic Movement's (ODM) 
Kenneth Marende as Speaker.  ODM's candidate for Deputy 
Speaker was also elected, again beating a PNU candidate. 
This event has the potential to change the political dynamics 
in Kenya.  Going into the session there was a strong 
presumption that PNU would buy support of ODM MPs elect, 
potentially further embittering ODM supporters. That ODM took 
the top two positions in the parliament is a great boost to 
its political fortunes and gives it leverage over PNU as 
Kenya seeks to break its political stalemate. After his 
election, Speaker Marende stated that PNU would need to 
consider a coalition government if it wanted to accomplish 
its legislative agenda. Marende's election - and his 
impressive performance on several tricky points of order, 
where he (rightly) ruled against his ODM colleagues - is a 
positive step and is likely to encourage dialog between the 
two sides that would involve powersharing, a joint 
legislative agenda for institutional reform, and mutual 
efforts to stop the violence afflicting Kenya.  We will 
continue to push for such a solution. Importantly, Kenyan 
media pressured the government into allowing live broadcast 
of the session, somewhat reducing tensions among the public 
which closely followed the highly-anticipated proceedings. 
END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  The PNU faction entered the chamber early and sat on the 
government's side of the hall, neutralizing ODM's threat to 
assume the government's side in protest of the presidential 
election results. ODM MPs attended the session despite 
contesting the legitimacy of President Kibaki's election, 
arguing that it could not allow PNU to gain leadership of 
parliament by default. When President Kibaki entered the 
chamber, ODM broke with tradition and refused to stand in 
recognition of his status.  When Raila Odinga made his 
entrance, ODM MPs rose, stomped their feet, and chanted, "the 
People's President".  This was the first time that Kibaki and 
Raila Odinga were in the same room, although each ignored the 
other's presence. During the marathon session, President 
Kibaki sat impassively, though he appeared hale and firm 
afoot. 
 
¶3. The first order of business was electing the Speaker. To 
be elected as Speaker on the first or second ballot, a 
candidate needs a two-thirds majority (of the total number of 
seats: 222, even though only 207 members have been elected 
and the 12 nominated MPs have not yet been named). If no 
candidate obtains the required majority on the first two 
ballots, the top two vote-getters proceed to a third ballot, 
after which a Speaker may be elected with a simple majority. 
Four candidates completed the necessary paperwork to stand 
for Speaker, but there were only two serious candidates:  the 
PNU-sponsored incumbent Speaker Francis Kaparo and ODM's 
MP-elect Peter Marende.  With the balance of power within 
parliament so tightly drawn (analysis of parliamentary 
election results in septel), the race was expected to be 
close and no one expected an outcome until the third ballot. 
There was a presumption that PNU would attempt to buy some 
ODM MPs to re-elect Kaparo, further alienating ODM 
supporters, but this apparently did not happen. 
 
¶4. When voting began, ODM MPs contested the Clerk's 
interpretation of the Standing Orders (rules of procedure) to 
require a secret ballot by showing their completed ballot 
papers to their colleagues before placing it in the ballot 
box. PNU objected and an hour long debate on secret ballots 
ensured. Ultimately Attorney General Amos Wako's 
interpretation that Commonwealth parliamentary practice is to 
elect a Speaker by secret ballot broke the deadlock. Having 
made its point, ODM withdrew its objection and voting was 
restarted. 
 
¶5.   As expected, no candidate received the necessary 
two-thirds majority on the first or second ballot, which 
showed support for Marende and Kaparo nearly even.  On the 
first ballot Marende polled 104, Kaparo 99. On the second 
ballot Marende polled 104 to Kaparo's 102.  On the third and 
decisive ballot, Marende polled 105 votes to Kaparo's 101, 
with one invalid vote. When the Clerk announced Marende's 
election, there was elation, cheers, and a round of 
backslapping on the ODM side. The announcement also palpably 
reduced tensions in the hall. 
 
¶6. Marende was sworn in immediately and presided over the 
rest of the session.  Having taken six hours to elect the 
Speaker, the MPs were anxious to conclude the session.  Thus, 
the election of the Deputy Speaker proceeded relatively 
quickly, with the ODM candidate Farah Maalim defeating PNU's 
Gitobu Imanyara. As he was preparing to preside over the 
swearing of the MPs' oath of office, ODM objected to the 
order of the oath (which would have President Kibaki take the 
oath first) and the form of the oath, which requires each MP 
to swear allegiance to the President (although not by name). 
ODM argued that, under the Constitution, sovereignty lies in 
the people not the president and called the oath in this form 
unconstitutional. Marende showed himself a quick study. After 
furious arguments on both sides, he ruled that he would swear 
Kibaki in first, as MP from Othaya, following the order on 
the list prepared by the Clerk.  On the second pointed, he 
decided that the oath in its current form is contained in an 
Act of Parliament and he was bound to administer it as 
currently written. He advised Parliament that if they wished 
to change the form of the oath, they would need to be sworn 
in first and then address the issue in a future session. 
Marende's initial rulings were made in a calm, deliberative 
manner. The fact that his rulings  favored PNU is a good 
start to establishing himself as an even-handed Speaker. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7. While the post-electoral crisis is far from over, the 
election of Marende as speaker is a positive step that 
encourages dialog between the two sides.  ODM now has control 
of  Parliament and thus more leverage for dialog.  The impact 
of the live broadcast (and transparency in government) on a 
wary Kenyan public should not be underestimated. Marende's 
election will present an opportunity for institutional 
reform, which we will pursue to strenghten Parliament as an 
effective counterweight to the historically dominant 
executive branch. END COMMENT 
RANNEBERGER