VZCZCXRO1388
RR RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #0189/01 0251612
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251612Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6278
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 000189 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR RS
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION SEEMS UNLIKELY TO GREENLIGHT 
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE KASYANOV 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Ex-Prime Minister Kasyanov's uphill battle 
to be registered as a contender in the March 2 presidential 
elections, seemed unlikely to succeed January 25 with the 
Central Election Commission (CEC) contending that 13 percent 
of the required two million signatures submitted were 
invalid, and Kasyanov's team insisting that many of the 
CEC-detected discrepancies have to do with the formatting of 
the signature lists presented and not with the signatures 
themselves.  Kasyanov himself continued to insist that the 
decision to register his candidacy was political, not 
technical, and would be made at the highest levels in the 
Kremlin.  Whatever the outcome, Putin nominee Dmitriy 
Medvedev remains positioned to easily best his three or four 
opponents in the election's first round.  End summary. 
 
List Discrepancies 
------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Ex-premier Mikhail Kasyanov's presidential candidacy 
remained in doubt January 25, as the Central Election 
Commission (CEC) continued to maintain that an examination of 
the two million plus signatures necessary for a non-party 
candidate to qualify had revealed that up to thirteen percent 
of them were invalid.  (The law permits no more that a five 
percent invalidity rate.)  Kasyanov's team has contested many 
of the judgments about the signatures made by the CEC. 
Kasyanov aide Oleg Burmistrev told us January 25 that in fact 
only 200 of the signatures examined by the Committee had been 
found to be invalid. The other discrepancies discovered and 
used by the CEC to reach its preliminary conclusion that 
Kasyanov could not be registered were of a "technical" 
nature.  The CEC, for example, had invalidated whole pages 
because the signature of the person collecting the signatures 
and the page date were written by different persons, or words 
like "district" were abbreviated on the petition; something 
that the CEC contended was not permitted. 
 
Legal Action 
------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Kasyanov has filed objections to many of the CEC's 
rulings which, according to CEC Secretary Nikolay Konkin, 
were under consideration and would be considered at its late 
afternoon session on January 25.  Kasyanov's Russian National 
Democratic Union is pressing its leader's case in the courts 
as well as with the CEC.  Kasyanov's official campaign 
representative Mark Feygin has initiated legal proceedings 
against the CEC, accusing it of having ignored its legal 
responsibility to inform voters of the campaign and it 
potential candidates.  The court seems unlikely to support 
Feygin's contention. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The CEC for its part has suggested that Kasyanov 
could find himself in court on the receiving end.  The 
prosecutors' offices in Mariy El and Yaroslavl region have 
opened criminal cases alleging the falsification of 
signatures.  Kasyanov's Mariy El campaign director Rustam 
Abdullin was arrested, but immediately released on his own 
recognizance after a criminal investigation was opened into 
his involvement in collecting allegedly false signatures. 
CEC member Siyapshakh Shapiyev has suggested that the 
Prosecutors' offices could make Kasyanov their target in 
those cases. 
 
Harassment History 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Kasyanov's long-running campaign has been the target 
of on-again, off-again harassment from pro-Kremlin youth 
groups like "Nashi," who at times have trailed the ex-premier 
as he has traveled the regions in search of votes and money. 
Calls from on high have occasionally caused landlords in the 
regions to renege on agreements to rent Kasyanov meeting 
space.  In the initial period immediately following the 
December 2 Duma elections, Kasyanov's aides told us that the 
harassment significantly lessened, causing them to conjecture 
that Kasyanov may have been given a greenlight to collect the 
requisite two million signatures and campaign.  The detention 
of Abdullin and the CEC's formalistic approach to his 
signature petitions suggest that they may be mistaken. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The CEC is to make its formal ruling on Kasyanov's 
candidacy on January 27.  Kasyanov and his aides insist that 
in the end the decision will be political, and will be made 
at the highest levels of the Kremlin.  Burmistrev told us 
January 25 that he had heard from a CEC contact that the 
Commission has prepared two decision, positive and negative, 
and would announce one of them January 27. 
 
Long Odds 
 
MOSCOW 00000189  002 OF 002 
 
 
--------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Even if Kasyanov is allowed to join Communist Party 
candidate Zyuganov, Liberal Democrat Zhirinovskiy, and 
National Democratic Party Chairman Bogdanov in their quixotic 
attempt to challenge First Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev for 
the presidency, his candidacy will not register with the 
voters who, polls show, are poised to cast the votes 
necessary to hand President Putin's mantle seamlessly to 
Medvedev in election round one on March 2.  The Kremlin's 
reluctance to allow Kasyanov's candidacy or the three percent 
pollsters believe it could leach away from Medvedev's vote 
count is indicative of this over-orchestrated transfer of 
power. 
BURNS