VZCZCXRO2506
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMD #0038/01 0151431
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151431Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4068
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000038 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN:  MARCH 2008 GENERAL ELECTION PRIMER 
 
REF: MADRID 2265 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero of 
the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Mariano Rajoy 
of the Popular Party (PP) will face off March 9, 2008, in a 
rematch of their 2004 contest.  In other reporting we examine 
the candidates, parties, issues, and polls.  Here we attempt 
to explain the mechanics of a Spanish general election.  End 
summary. 
 
Election Day 
------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The Spanish general election will be held Sunday, 
March 9, 2008.  Officially, campaigning begins February 22 
and ends March 8 (to allow a day of national reflection 
before the vote).  Unofficially, the parties and candidates 
have been hard at it for months.  At stake are all 350 seats 
in the Congress of Deputies (Congress) and all 208 elected 
seats in the Senate; another 56 Senate seats are filled by 
appointments by the governments of Spain's 17 autonomous 
communities (autonomous communities, equivalent to our 
states, are the first tier political divisions in Spain). 
The new Congress will in turn select a new President (the 
Senate plays no role).  Each of Spain's 50 provinces is 
entitled to a minimum of two seats in Congress.  The Moroccan 
enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla each have one seat.  The 
remaining 248 seats are allocated among the 50 provinces 
based on population. Seats are assigned in each province by 
the D'Hondt method (proportional representation).  Barring 
some unforeseeable complication, election results should be 
known by midnight. 
 
¶3. (U) Voters (any Spanish citizen over 18 years of age and 
listed on the census -- there is no registration requirement 
-- roughly 35 million people) cast ballots not for an 
individual but for a party list in each province.  The 
candidates on the lists are selected by the parties and 
placed on the list in rank order.  If the party wins one seat 
in that province, the first person on their list gets the 
seat.  If the party wins two seats, then numbers one and two 
on the list receive the seats, and so on.  There is no 
residency requirement to appear on a provincial list.  A 
great deal of gamesmanship goes into deciding on which 
provincial list to place a party's most appealing 
politicians.  Likewise, there can be intra-party strife as 
rivals try to push each other off the lists, down the lists, 
or onto a list in a province deemed unsafe for that party. 
 
¶4. (U) Candidates are forbidden from buying advertising until 
the final two weeks before the election.  Some free air time 
will be provided in those two weeks.  In the meantime, the 
parties are focusing on earned media, public events, and 
internet.  Campaign finance is regulated in Spain although 
critics say enforcement is lax. 
 
Parties and Candidates 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) In addition to the PSOE and PP, other parties with 
some hope of winning congressional seats will field 
candidates.  (Note:  There are far more parties registered 
and likely to present candidates, but most are not viable. 
For example, there is one whose entire platform is banning 
bullfighting.  End note.)  The small parties in a position to 
win seats are:  the Basque National Party (PNV); the 
Convergence and Union Party (CiU - Catalonia); the Republican 
Left of Catalonia (ERC); the United Left (IU); the Canary 
Coalition (CC); the Galician National Block (BNG); the 
Aragonese Junta (CHA); the Union, Progress, and Democracy 
Party (UPD); the Basque social democrats (EA); and the 
Navarra/Basque party (Na-Bai).  None of them has a chance of 
winning the presidency; their significance comes in the 
likely event that neither the PSOE or the PP win an absolute 
majority and thus they have to wheel and deal to make their 
man President. 
 
Forming a New Government 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) The President of the government is chosen by the new 
Congress which will be elected March 9.  Within 25 days 
following the March 9 election the new Congress is formed. 
Within 15 days of Congress being formed, it must hold its 
first session.  The King formally proposes Presidential 
candidates to the Congress, but he does so on the basis of 
the election results and any coalition building that follows. 
 The proposed candidates for President must present their 
programs to Congress (normally a mere formality), and the new 
President is then elected by an absolute majority of those 
 
MADRID 00000038  002 OF 002 
 
 
voting (176 votes, assuming all 350 Congressmen vote).  In 
theory, if no one obtains an absolute majority, a President 
may be elected by simple majority, but this has never 
happened.  Instead, if no party wins 176 seats in the 
election, wheeling and dealing will result in someone putting 
together the necessary 176 votes.  By way of historical 
reference, in 2004, the PSOE won 164 seats, the PP 148, CiU 
(the main Catalan party) ten, ERC (another Catalan party) 
eight, the PNV (the main Basque party) seven, the IU (far 
left) five, and smaller parties a total of eight.  The PSOE 
combined with ERC and IU to add 13 to their total of 164 and 
make Zapatero President.  In the extremely unlikely event the 
Congress could not chose a new President, the King could call 
for a new general election for the Congress. 
 
Numbers 
------- 
 
¶7. (U) In 2004, the PSOE beat the PP by 1,260,000 votes (43 
vs. 38 percent of the vote).  There was 76 percent voter 
turnout (turnout in 2000, when the PP won 45 to 34 percent, 
was 69 percent).  Conventional wisdom says PSOE voters lack 
the discipline of PP voters and need strong motivation on 
election day.  The 2004 upset is often attributed to the 
March 11 train bombings (which one study claimed sent an 
extra 1.6 million voters to the polls).  Some argue the PSOE 
must generate participation at or above 70 percent to win. 
The PP was heartened by the May 2007 municipal elections in 
which it polled slightly ahead of the PSOE, but it may be 
misleading to extrapolate too much from the local to the 
national scene.  While most observers think the crossover 
vote potential is small, there is an indeterminate number 
(many say roughly a million) of independent or swing voters. 
 
 
¶8. (U) The autonomous communities of Andalucia, Catalonia, 
Madrid, and Valencia could be pivotal to this election.  The 
PSOE normally dominates Andalucia (winning 38 seats there to 
the PP's 23 in 2004), and by scheduling the regional election 
for March 9, the party hopes to keep voter interest and 
turnout high.  Nevertheless, the PP believes PSOE support is 
slowly slipping in Andalucia as the traditionally poor, rural 
area becomes more prosperous.  Catalonia is unlikely to give 
the PP many votes (the PSOE took 21 seats there in 2004 to 
the PP's six), all the more so because the PP is campaigning 
in part on the claim that the PSOE has yielded too much to 
Catalan regionalism.  Nevertheless, the Catalans could damage 
the PSOE's electoral fortunes by staying home on election 
day.  A series of embarrassing problems involving public 
transportation infrastructure and public utilities has 
alienated the Catalan public and may hold down turnout in 
Catalonia or strengthen the performance of the home-grown 
Catalan parties.  The PP hopes to increase its margin in 
Madrid where it has a firm grip on the governments of both 
the autonomous community and the city (in 2004 the PP took 17 
seats to the PSOE's 16).  The PP also has high hopes for 
Valencia, where in 2004 it won 17 seats to the PSOE's 14. 
 
Debates 
------- 
 
¶9. (U) Zapatero and Rajoy will face off twice in nationally 
televised debates, February 25 and March 3.  It is hard to 
predict the effect this could have since such debates are not 
inevitable features of Spanish elections.  The last one was 
in 1993 when Felipe Gonzalez faced Jose Maria Aznar. 
Nevertheless, a stellar performance or a bad stumble just 
days from the finish line could be significant. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Polls consistently point to a close race.  The 
latest one, conducted by Sigma Dos in mid-December, showed 
the PSOE at 41.9 percent and the PP at 39.4.  While we will 
continue to report on the polls, please bear in mind that 
Spanish voters may not focus on this race until much closer 
to March 9, and hence the polls may not harden until the 
second half of February.  Moreover, Spanish pollsters have 
been wrong before. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Particularly in a race as close as the polls 
suggest this one is, no one should underestimate the 
potential for some unexpected event to change outcomes.  It 
need not be something as dramatic and tragic as the 2004 
terrorist attacks.  A sudden increase in or loss of 
confidence in the economy, an embarrassing debate 
performance, or a scandal could radically change the momentum 
for one party or the other. 
AGUIRRE