VZCZCXRO3765
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLU #0083/01 0291031
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 291031Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUANDA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4576
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS TO USAID/IMACNAIRN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM AO
SUBJECT: ELECTION CHIEF OPTIMISTIC ABOUT '08 ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: During a January 23 call by Ambassador 
Mozena, National Electoral Commission (CNE) President Antonio 
Caetano de Sousa declared he was "optimistic" and "quite 
sure" the CNE would successfully carry out legislative 
elections in September 2008 in the time frame laid out by 
President Dos Santos.  He hoped the election could be only a 
single day vice the two announced by the President.  Caetano 
acknowledged the importance of transparency in both planning 
and executing the electoral process and confirmed that 
international observers would be invited.  He spoke freely 
about the challenges faced by the CNE as it plans for 
upcoming elections.  Caetano spoke positively about 
U.S.-funded IFES support for the CNE.  END SUMMARY 
 
Avoiding Kenya: Political Parties to Play Nice? 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (U) Caetano called ensuring fair and transparent elections 
a "problematic" issue for the CNE, as so much of how 
elections are viewed depends on the behavior of political 
parties.  How they conduct their campaigns and control the 
expectations of their supporters will heavily influence the 
legitimacy with which the electorate views the results, he 
offered.  In his view only two political parties truly matter 
in Angolan politics: the MPLA and UNITA.  Only these parties 
have the resources and supporters not only to campaign 
heavily nationwide, but to work with the CNE to observe 
elections and conduct civic education.  Despite the rocky 
history these parties have had in the past election, Caetano 
predicted both will "play nice" during legislative elections 
as they position themselves for the '09 presidential run. 
 
In Search of Transparency 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Caetano acknowledged the importance of working with 
political parties along the path toward elections, to explain 
consistently the CNE's decisions and create transparent 
processes.  He stated the CNE's intention to include 
political parties and civil society in the planning process 
and confirmed that the CNE's electoral calendar would soon be 
made public so that stakeholders could plan their activities. 
 The calendar, a timeline of key events, is currently being 
finalized; Caetano estimated it would be approved and 
published within a week. 
 
¶4. (U) Caetano spoke at length about the important role 
trained electoral observers play in a just and transparent 
electoral process.  The CNE plans to train political party 
and civil society election monitors in the electoral process 
and electoral laws.  Caetano affirmed that international 
observers would also be invited; he stated that invitations 
would be coming "soon," but would not specify when or 
speculate on whom the GRA would invite.  He did confirm, 
however, that the CNE would credential designated Embassy 
staff as observers, and stated that international observers 
can be invited by either the GRA or any political party. 
One logistical hurdle after another... 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The electoral calendar is but one step on a long 
series of logistical hurdles the CNE must cross to conduct 
transparent elections.  He estimated the need for more than 
10,000 polling stations nationwide; by law each services no 
more than 1,000 voters.  The CNE has yet to determine how it 
will select the 5-7 people that will be hired and trained to 
run each station, nor determined the means of communication 
and transmittal of results between individual stations and 
municipal authorities.  Caetano did confirm, however, that 
voting will be done by paper ballot and votes will be counted 
publicly in an effort to increase transparency. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Caetano stressed the CNE's efforts in covering rural 
provinces that were a source of UNITA's discontent in 1992, 
such as Moxico and Kuando Kubango.  These large provinces 
lack infrastructure and are heavily mined in places.  He said 
teams are using helicopters to explore logistical options in 
Kuando Kubango.  (Note: Curiously, he made no reference to 
seeking information from the Inter-ministerial Commission for 
the Electoral Process (CIPE), which presumably would have an 
up-to-date picture of coping with the region's limited 
infrastructure following its recently completed voter 
registration drive.  End note.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) Caetano spoke positively about the support provided 
by the USG-funded IFES program.  He said the IFES team had 
just seen him earlier in the day as they further develop 
their action plan to assist the CNE with electoral logistics. 
 Caetano said he was pleased with the meeting and that he 
looked forward to receiving their plan. 
 
LUANDA 00000083  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
One Day vs. Two Day Elections 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The only point that rattled Caetano was a question 
on the President's controversial statement that elections 
would occur over a two day period.  Most opposition political 
parties have decried this move, stating that it not only 
violates the electoral law (which many interpret as calling 
for a one day election) but could also facilitate fraud and 
overnight ballot-box stuffing by the ruling MPLA.  A visibly 
uncomfortable Caetano confirmed the law "does speak of one 
day," but stated the CNE had not yet taken a public position 
on the issue, because it is still studying election logistics 
in rural areas.  He repeatedly stated the CNE intention to do 
everything possible to conduct elections in one day, but, he 
added, "at this point it's too early to determine if that is 
a feasible proposition."  He said he was surprised by the 
President's statement, and wryly stated that perhaps Dos 
Santos knows something the CNE doesn't about infrastructure 
conditions. 
 
¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: Caetano seemed confident that the CNE is on 
track for September '08 elections and took pains to detail 
the CNE's efforts to create an inclusive electoral process. 
Clearly, however, the CNE's most difficult work remains.  The 
IFES program will certainly help the CNE get a handle on 
daunting logistical challenges. 
MOZENA