VZCZCXRO0930
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLG #0024/01 0140539
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140539Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY LILONGWE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4961
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000024 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: MALAWI: ANALYSTS CRITICIZE MUTHARIKA, BUT EXPECT HIM TO WIN 
AGAIN IN 2009 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Five of Malawi's most influential political 
scientists told poloff that President Mutharika, while ably managing 
the economy, has not upheld the rule of law; some fear that he may 
become more autocratic if his party can win a majority in the 
upcoming elections.  Regionalism remains strong in party 
identification, while religion plays little role.  The three major 
party leaders all have roots in the post-independence government and 
have discouraged the next generation of leaders from emerging. 
While all five political scientists felt former President Muluzi's 
attempt to run for president in 2009 is legally dubious, some 
suggested that if Muluzi competes, he could fracture the populous 
south enough to give Malawi Congress Party (MCP) candidate John 
Tembo a chance at the presidency.  However, most agreed that 
Mutharika's economic progress will ensure his re-election as 
president, but will not guarantee the Democratic Progressive Party a 
majority in Parliament. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In November 2007, poloff discussed the current political 
situation with five of the most influential and often-quoted 
political scientists in Malawi.  University of Malawi Associate 
Professor Dr. Blessings Chinsinga is a specialist in development 
economics but is often quoted regarding rule of law issues.  Dr. 
Mustafa Hussein is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Malawi on 
Political and Administrative Studies.  Noel Mbowela is an Assistant 
Lecturer at Mzuzu University in the sparsely populated but 
politically important northern region of Malawi. Rafik Hajat and Dr. 
Nadini Patel are Director and Deputy Director at the Institute for 
Policy Interaction (IPI), a public policy think tank.  Hajat is also 
a former office holder in the United Democratic Front (UDF) party 
and was among the framers of the current Malawian constitution back 
in 1993-1994. 
 
President Mutharika and the Rule of Law 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The analysts agreed that while President Mutharika is 
doing a commendable job on the economy, he is failing to provide 
steady political leadership.  They also charged that Mutharika has 
failed to uphold the rule of law.  Most believed the dismissal of 
the National Assembly last September was clearly meant to prevent 
the Speaker from implementing floor-crossing legislation which would 
have weakened the ruling party. Hussein singled out the 
administration's failure to hold constitutionally-mandated local 
government elections in 2005 as President Mutharika's clearest 
violation of the law.  Hajat commented that if Mutharika's 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were to gain a majority in 
Parliament in 2009, the President's style of one-man rule would 
likely worsen.  While all were concerned about the 2009 elections, 
all believed the elections would take place as scheduled. 
 
Regionalism a Factor in Politics, Religion not 
----------------------- ---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) All of the analysts agree that regionalism remains a major 
factor in Malawian politics. The UDF remains a southern region 
party, while the MCP still has the central region as its stronghold. 
Mutharika's DPP has strong support in the south but has made headway 
in the central region as well.  Mbowela added that the demise of 
Alliance for Democracy's (AFORD), which previously dominated the 
northern region, has created a vacuum which is likely to be filled 
by the DPP.   While all agreed there are no significant ideological 
or policy differences among the parties, Hussein said that DPP's 
focus on economic development, food security, and anti-corruption 
held promise if the party could continue to deliver on its promises. 
 Most agreed that DPP had the best chance to have national reach, 
but parliamentary elections, not presidential, would be the true 
indicator of its success. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The analysts agreed religion is not a factor in Malawian 
politics. According to Hussein, himself a Muslim, former President 
Muluzi should not expect automatic Muslim support for his comeback 
bid. He said the Muslim community has seen more economic development 
under Mutharika than they had under Muluzi and that factor will 
influence the Muslim vote more than religion.  Hussein added that 
the fact that the Muslim community has not rallied to Vice President 
Chilumpha's side in his treason trial is another sign that religious 
affiliation is not aligned to political affiliation. 
 
 
Succession and the Next Generation of Leaders 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The analysts pointed out that tight control of the major 
political parties by their leaders has made it very difficult for a 
new generation of leaders to emerge. Chisinga referred to the 
situation as a "time bomb" for Malawi's politics. He argued that the 
fact that most national political leaders have been in politics 
since independence in 1964 bespeaks a culture hostile to leadership 
regeneration.  Hajat believed that leadership talent existed, but 
those who control the parties needed to let it rise.  He commented 
that autocratic governments were a logical outcome when leaders rule 
 
LILONGWE 00000024  002 OF 002 
 
 
their own parties in the same manner. 
 
Muluzi in 2009? 
--------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Analysts see former President Muluzi's bid to stand for 
president in 2009 as legally dubious. However, a majority believe 
that Muluzi will find a way to stand.  Few gave Muluzi much chance 
to win the presidential election outright; and Hajat and Patel 
believed other UDF candidates could have a stronger chance.  Hajat 
and Patel both believe Muluzi will act as a spoiler by splitting the 
vote in the southern region with President Mutharika, thus giving 
MCP Leader John Tembo an opening to take the presidency with the 
backing of his central region stronghold. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Mbowela argued that even with Muluzi in the race, 
Mutharika will still win the 2009 election with a majority of the 
votes. Mbowela argued that Mutharika is likely to win due to the 
success of his agricultural policy of subsidizing fertilizer. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Comment:  The five political analysts are the most quoted 
and consulted by Malawi's media; their repeated exposure has allowed 
them to influence and shape public opinion as well as assess it. 
While their pointed comments on human rights, rule of law, and 
democracy help to provide a check to government and party leaders, 
the pundits themselves are not immune to influence.  The outspoken 
Hajat still provides counsel to Muluzi and UDF on occasion while 
also keeping Mutharika accountable.  Recent reports also hint that 
MCP in an attempt to curry favor in the southern region may consider 
an influential professor like Hussein as a potential running mate to 
Tembo. 
 
EASTHAM