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RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2266

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000036 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THREE NORTHEAST 
STATES 
 
REF: KOLKATA 1 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya - all states 
in Northeast India - are scheduled for state assembly elections 
in February on completion of their 5-year terms.   Following its 
defeat in the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, 
the Congress Party (Congress) will try to retain/recapture its 
traditional strongholds in Northeast India.  Of the three 
states, Congress is currently in power only in Meghalaya 
although of the three major national parties (Congress, Bhartiya 
Janata Party (BJP), and Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPM) 
Congress traditionally has the widest network in the NE region. 
Since 2003, Nagaland has been ruled by the BJP-backed Democratic 
Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) until the recent imposition of 
President's Rule on January 3.  Tripura has been under the 
CPM-led Left Front for three consecutive terms since 1993. End 
Summary. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Meghalaya: Congress Relies on Local Political Allies 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) In 2003, the Congress-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance 
(MDA) earned a convincing majority in the assembly elections. 
The Congress won 22 seats, the United Democratic Party (UDP) 9, 
the Meghalaya Democratic Party (MDP) 4, Khun Hyniewtrep National 
Awakening Movement (KHNAM) 2 and Independents 3.  The only 
significant opposition party, the Nationalist Congress Party 
(NCP), was led by former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma and won 
14 seats with others winning 6 seats.  Meghalaya has a history 
of political instability -- between 1998 and the last assembly 
elections in 2003, Meghalaya had six governments and four chief 
ministers.  Congress's D.D. Lapang became Chief Minister in 
March 2003 but owing to factionalism within the party, he was 
replaced by J.D. Rymbai in June 2006.  In March 2007, Lapang 
became Chief Minister again. 
 
¶3.  (U) Politics in Meghalya is fractured, with no strong 
tradition of party loyalty.  Politicians are currently focused 
on securing party tickets for the election.  If denied, they 
will quickly look to switch allegiances and join other parties 
willing to accommodate them.  Former Chief Minister Rymbai, for 
example, left the Congress to join the UDP.  In this 
environment, the Congress will find it difficult to get an 
absolute majority.   The state's smaller parties will play a 
crucial role in the numbers game that will determine the nature 
of a new ruling coalition.  Alliances will be formed after 
election results are announced.  In the Garo Hills area 
(dominated by ethnic Garos) the main contest will be between 
Sangma's NCP and the Congress.  In the Khasi Hills, Congress 
will compete with other regional parties. 
 
--------------------- 
Tripura: Left Bastion 
--------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) In Tripura, the Left Front's influence has increased 
with each election since 1993.  In 2003, the Left won 41 of the 
60 assembly seats (CPM - 38, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 
- 2, CPI - 1.).  The CPM is still going strong, although its 
smaller partner, the Forward Bloc, has announced it will contest 
the elections on its own and not as part of the Left Front. 
 
¶5.  (U) The Congress, in alliance with the Indigenous 
Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT), won 19.  The INPT is 
political organization representing the interests of the 
insurgent group National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT). 
The Congress has once again forged an alliance with the INPT for 
these elections.  However, factionalism within the Congress is 
now at its worst and renders it prospects bleak, especially when 
contrasted with the Left's solidarity. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Nagaland: Defections to Congress 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Prior to President's Rule being imposed in January 2007 
(reftel), Nagaland's DAN coalition government consisted of the 
Nagaland People's Front (19),  BJP (7), Janta Dal - United (3), 
Samata Party (1), National Democratic Movement (3) and 
Independents (4).  The Congress was the single largest party 
with 21 seats in the 60 member assembly.   Desperate in their 
bid to regain power in Nagaland, Congress legislators campaigned 
in New Delhi and finally succeeded in getting the United 
 
KOLKATA 00000036  002 OF 002 
 
 
Progressive Alliance government to impose Central rule in the 
state "to facilitate free and fair elections," which they 
believe would not be possible under DAN governance.  At least 12 
legislators from DAN have defected to Congress.  In the 2003 
polls, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim - Isak Muivah 
(NSCN-IM) had supported DAN because the group considered 
Congress leader S.C. Jamir to be its arch enemy.  However, this 
time Jamir may not contest (although his son is a likely 
candidate), which may reduce the NSCN-IM hostility towards the 
Congress. 
 
¶7.  (U) A "third front" made up of parties like the RJD, JD(U) 
and BSP is emerging in Nagaland as elections approach.  Seeing 
the NPF and BJP on the one hand, and Congress on the other, the 
third front leaders hope to win enough seats to make their 
participation in government formation crucial. 
 
------------------------------ 
Playing UPA's Look East Policy 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (U) Congress party leaders in New Delhi are making attempts 
to woo Northeastern voters by highlighting the region's benefits 
from the GOI's "Look East Policy" through regional conferences 
organized by MEA in recent months.  On January 11, the GOI 
organized a Northeast Investors Summit in Guwahati, Assam, 
bringing together state representatives from the region. 
Highlighting economic development is not without its drawbacks, 
however.  Congress support for uranium mining in Meghalaya has 
met with opposition from the public and civil society 
organizations. 
 
¶9.  (U) Comment:  Each of the three Northeastern states have 
their own unique local factors that will determine the electoral 
outcome.  Election dates have been set for February 23-March 3, 
but campaigns and alliances are still uncertain.  Promises of 
economic development have been the norm in the past, and the 
electoral pattern in the economically backward Northeast is to 
vote in favor of the party or alliance ruling at the Center to 
ensure the continued flow of funds into the state coffers. 
Although this factor may help the Congress in Nagaland, it 
probably will not in Tripura, where the CPM's strength is still 
overwhelming.  In Meghalaya, the number of parties vying for 
power indicates that many backroom agreements will be necessary 
to stitch together a coalition government. 
JARDINE