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PP RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0001 0031110
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 031110Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1817
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0376
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2221

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000001 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S RULE IMMINENT IN BJP-CONTROLLED NAGALAND 
 
REF: 2007 Kolkata 382 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: The Union Cabinet has recommended 
implementation of President's Rule in the Northeast Indian state 
of Nagaland, currently ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP)-backed Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) coalition and 
with Congress as the main opposition party.  Current Chief 
Minister Neiphiu Rio's government had survived a controversial 
no-confidence motion in the state assembly last December, but 
Congress insistence of constitutional improprieties in the vote 
sparked their likely successful call for GOI intervention. 
Congress is eager to undermine BJP influence after recent losses 
in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, but will have to walk a fine 
line to both win upcoming state elections and protect the peace 
process with local insurgent groups.  End summary. 
 
A Move Before State Polls 
 
¶2.  (U) The Union Cabinet has recommended implementation of 
President's Rule in the Northeast Indian state of Nagaland, 
currently ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-backed 
Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) coalition and with 
Congress as the main opposition party.  State elections are 
normally scheduled for March 2008 when the tenure of the current 
assembly expires.  The GOI's January 1 decision to impose 
President's Rule still needs the signature of President Pratibha 
Patil to go into effect. 
 
¶3.  (U) On December 13, 2007, Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio's 
government survived a controversial no-confidence motion in the 
Nagaland state assembly.  Congress alleged that the motion was 
defeated 23-19 because the Speaker of the assembly barred three 
Independents from voting and also declared the votes of nine 
dissident legislators from Rio's Nagaland People's Front (NPF) 
invalid.  On December 23, 2007, thirty state legislators met 
with President Patil seeking dismissal of the Rio government, 
claiming that constitutional improprieties had taken place 
during the no-confidence vote. 
 
Defections Create a Minority Regime 
 
¶4.  (U) The politicking in the state assembly had been going on 
for some time.  The Rio government initially included the NPF, 
BJP and the Janata Dal (United) but JD (U) legislators defected 
and joined Congress (reftel).  The assembly was reduced to 55 
from its normal number of 60 following the resignation of five 
legislators -- four from the NPF and one BJP -- over the past 
six months.  Of the 24 legislators now in government, the NPF 
has 18 and the BJP six.  The opposition now has 17 Congress 
legislators, two from JD (U), three Independents and nine NPF 
defectors. 
 
¶5.  (U) DAN has accused Congress of engineering defections to 
topple the government and Chief Minister Rio said the move to 
impose President's Rule was unconstitutional since his 
government was democratically elected and won the December 13 
confidence vote.  The Leader of the Opposition, I. Imkong, told 
Post that DAN was voted out of power and President's Rule - to 
be announced in a couple of days - would validate his claims. 
He also told Post that although the Rio government's term would 
finish in March, Congress sought President's Rule because it 
does not want elections to be held with DAN members in 
government and in control of state and police machinery. 
 
Congress Stalwart Back, but Treading Cautiously 
 
¶6.  (U) Current Goa Governor S.C. Jamir, who lost the Chief 
Minister job to Rio in 2003, is desperate for a Congress 
comeback in Nagaland and to regain his old job.  Jamir escaped 
an attempt on his life during a November 2007 visit to Nagaland 
allegedly by the insurgent National Socialist Council of Nagalim 
- Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) (Jamir and Congress are supported by 
NSCN-IM's rival faction NSCN-Khaplang).  Despite a recent 
cessation of hostilities between the two militant factions, 
Jamir continues to be hostile towards the NSCN-IM because the 
NSCN-IM played a role in bringing Rio to power in 2003. 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Comment: Though the basis for imposing President's Rule 
is vague, it is likely that President Patil will sign off on the 
decision.  Recent Congress defeats in Gujarat and Himachal 
Pradesh have made Congress eager to wrest a victory from the 
BJP.  The Congress objective at this point is to gain an 
electoral edge by imposing Central rule and undermining the BJP 
coalition's influence during elections season in Nagaland.  At 
the same time, they do no want to upset the NSCN-IM 
significantly and destabilize the peace negotiations.  Congress 
may try to walk a "middle-ground" by not holding out Jamir as 
its man for chief minister, knowing that they have the option of 
announcing their candidate after poll results are declared. 
 
MILLER