VZCZCXRO6046
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0072/01 0181159
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181159Z JAN 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9727
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000072 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM - "WE WILL NEVER COALESCE WITH THE NCP" 
 
REF: (A) KHARTOUM 063 
 
(B) KHARTOUM 025 
(C) 07 KHARTOUM 2011 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: There are still several issues being negotiated 
regarding the electoral law at the level of the National 
Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC): how women will be elected, 
the make-up of the mixed electoral system, and how to manage the 
registration and voting process for Sudanese IDPs and Sudanese 
citizens living in the diaspora.  An SPLM source claims that her 
party will "never" coalesce with the NCP before the elections and 
warns that if the NCP feels "weak" over the next eight to ten 
months, the elections are unlikely to be executed in a free and fair 
manner. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------ 
MORE FEMALE POLITICIANS 
------------------------ 
¶2. (SBU) In a 17 January meeting with SPLM member and National 
Assembly Chairperson of the Human Rights Committee Dr. Barsila 
Joseph, Joseph said that women currently occupy less than 20 percent 
of seats in the GNU National Assembly.  The draft election law 
provides for an increase in female representation at all levels of 
the government (national, state, and in the GoSS) to at least 25 
percent. Joseph said this new development would "clear the space" 
for women to participate more actively in the Sudanese political 
process and provide them with political experience and confidence. 
It will also enable women to "work across party lines", said Joseph. 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although there is agreement among the parties that 25 
percent of seats at all levels of government will be held by women, 
there is still a debate over the way in which these women will be 
elected.  According to Joseph, the SPLM would like for women to be 
elected via a proportional voting system.  The NCP, however, is 
fighting for female election by direct representation.  Joseph 
stressed that electing women via proportional representation is 
important because it may allow women, at some levels, to have 
representation that is greater than 25 percent.  Women, she 
explained, have not previously had a chance to prove themselves in 
politics and "deliver" to Sudanese communities.  Moreover, tradition 
and culture have severely limited the leadership role of women in 
political and social structures. If women are elected via direct 
representation, it will be very difficult for women to achieve 
representation above 25 percent. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Historically, Joseph said, women have participated and 
voted in elections in Sudan.  The problem, claimed Joseph, was that 
many women are "directed" to vote for specific candidates by parties 
and/or family members.  Joseph admitted that more voter education 
intended for women must be carried out by civil society groups in 
order to make women aware of why they are voting and the 
significance of their vote.  She lamented that there has never been 
a comprehensive voter education program for women in Sudan. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
ELECTION TIMELINE AND POTENTIAL OBSTACLES 
----------------------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) At the closing of the National Assembly's extended session 
on 16 January, Speaker Ahmed Ibrahim Al-Tahir urged that the 
electoral law must pass through the Council of Ministers and 
National Assembly before April.  When asked whether the National 
Assembly would call a special session before April to review and 
ratify the electoral law, Joseph said that "it depends on how the 
parties behave."  The draft bill, now stuck in the NCRC, cannot move 
forward to the Council of Ministers or the National Assembly until 
parties agree on several details. [NOTE: Dr. Joseph is a member of 
the 60-person NCRC.  END NOTE.] 
 
¶6. (SBU) According to Joseph, the most critical issues that must be 
dealt with before the election are the census and voter 
registration.  She stressed the importance of the census, saying 
that it will not only determine constituencies but also the strength 
(in terms of population) and representation numbers of such 
constituencies.  Joseph suggested that in order for the GNU to meet 
the CPA-mandated election timeline of July 2009, more people must 
immediately get involved in the process and begin activities such as 
voter education and awareness before the electoral law is passed. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The CPA parties, in the NCRC, are still debating how 
Sudanese citizens in the diaspora and refugees will vote in the 2009 
elections.  Southern Sudanese officials are encouraging southern 
Sudanese refugees to move back to their homes before the national 
census is scheduled to take place in late April.  Joseph said that 
Sudanese citizens living outside the country at the time of 
elections could vote in Sudanese embassies, but there is concern 
over how to control this process and its susceptibility to 
 
KHARTOUM 00000072  002 OF 002 
 
 
vote-rigging.  The electoral law currently states that a citizen 
must vote where he/she resides, which renders southern Sudanese who 
live outside of southern Sudan powerless to vote in the upcoming 
GoSS elections.  This issue, however, is being debated in the NCRC. 
 
¶8. (U) Joseph, along with the Women's Center for Human Rights and 
UNMIS, hosted a session on Sudanese electoral history and electoral 
law for parliamentarians this week in the National Assembly.  Joseph 
said that the training was meant to mobilize and educate assembly 
members from various committees on election legislation before the 
draft electoral law is brought to the Assembly.  Joseph believes 
that such training will not only enrich the debate over the 
electoral law but will spawn its quick ratification by familiarizing 
assembly members with electoral issues.  Approximately 40 
parliamentarians attended. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
THE NEC AND POTENTIAL PARTY COALITIONS 
--------------------------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) With respect to the formation of an independent NEC, Joseph 
said that the Presidency must choose candidates who have the ability 
to set their own political opinions aside for the sake of 
constructive debate and dialogue.  She mentioned that the two 
current co-chairs of the NCRC, Abdulla Idris and Abel Alier, are 
well-respected and would make good NEC candidates.  She warned that 
if the parties do not respect those who Al-Bashir chooses as members 
of the nine-person NEC team, the elections process will not go 
smoothly. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Joseph vehemently denied rumors that the SPLM would 
coalesce with the NCP in advance of elections. "It will never 
happen", she insisted. Instead, she said, the SPLM is likely to 
coalesce with smaller groups that are "more like itself" such as 
groups from the Eastern Front or, if created, a Darfurian party.  On 
the issue of free and fair elections, Joseph said that if the NCP 
feels weak over the next eight to ten months, elections are unlikely 
to be free and fair. 
 
¶11. (SBU) COMMENT:  Although the Sudanese should be applauded for 
their efforts to empower female politicians by allocating them 
greater representation in the GNU and GoSS at all levels, the more 
immediate concern is the continued hold-up of the electoral law. 
NCP and SPLM sources have indicated that the chances of the 
President calling a special parliamentary session to review and 
approve the law before April are good.  Still, the work that must be 
done in preparing and executing the elections after the law is 
passed and before 9 July 2009 is daunting.  Although the NCRC claims 
the parties have reached common ground on all fronts except for the 
percentages of the mixed system, it is clear that other issues 
remain, such as the registration and voting of IDPs and the 
diaspora. 
 
FERNANDEZ