VZCZCXRO6569
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0027/01 0080642
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 080642Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9671
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000027 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM INSIDER SAMSON KWAJE ON CENSUS, CABINET RESHUFFLE, 
ABYEI, AND LRA 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Consul General and visiting polchief met with 
Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) Agriculture Minister Samson 
Kwaje January 7.  Kwaje is considered a close advisor of GoSS 
President and GNU First Vice President Salva Kiir (background and 
bio notes are included at the end of this cable).  Kwaje accused the 
National Congress Party (NCP) of blocking the census but 
acknowledged that a delay is in the interests of the SPLM so that 
more refugees and IDPs can return to southern Sudan.  Kwaje said 
that Kiir will discuss Abyei with GNU Second Vice President Taha 
today in an effort to resolve the current fighting there.  Kwaje, 
who is deputy SPLM mediator for the Lord's Resistance Army Peace 
Talks, said that SPLM representatives had recently been to LRA 
leader Joseph Kony's camp in Congo (a six-hour walk from the border) 
and confirmed that Kony intends to continue the peace process.  The 
LRA told the SPLM that although Vincent Otti is dead, Kony did not 
kill him. End summary. 
 
Census 
------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Newly-arrived Consul General Chris Datta and visiting 
Khartoum polchief met with newly-appointed GoSS Agriculture Minister 
January 7.  Although given ample opportunity to address agricultural 
issues, Kwaje appeared somewhat bored by the topic and preferred to 
talk about politics.  Kwaje repeated familiar accusations that the 
NCP is blocking implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement 
(CPA) and well-worn claims that the NCP has tried to convince the 
SPLM to make a deal to delay elections indefinitely.  However, Kwaje 
also acknowledged that conducting the census in April 2008 is not in 
the interests of the SPLM.  He said there are over 100,000 southern 
Sudanese refugees in Kenya and Ethiopia who may return to southern 
Sudan this year, as well as many IDPs in the north who may return. 
Kwaje claimed the NCP is bribing southern IDPs in the north with 
offers of land, while simultaneously blocking census questions about 
religion and ethnicity, in order to swell northern census data 
relative to the south.  Nonetheless, Kwaje said the census could 
occur in April and that the population data could be corrected later 
during the voter registration process.  CG Datta and polchief urged 
Kwaje to ensure that the SPLM takes the moral high ground and does 
everything in its power to ensure a timely census, to demonstrate 
that it is doing everything possible to implement the CPA. 
 
Cabinet Reshuffle and Abyei 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Kwaje viewed the recent cabinet reshuffle positively and 
observed that the SPLM now has "loyal SPLM members" in Khartoum to 
negotiate with the NCP.  Kwaje echoed comments of other SPLM members 
in Juba that Pagan Amum's appointment as Minister of Cabinet is 
critical in order to bring forceful SPLM leadership to Khartoum. 
Kwaje said that GNU First Vice President Kiir, in addition to 
meeting January 7 with President Bashir in Khartoum, would also meet 
with Second Vice President Ali Osman Taha to discuss possible 
solutions to the Abyei crisis.  He said that they would mainly 
discuss ways to resolve the current fighting between Misseriya Arab 
and SPLA forces, but would also address the border issue.  Kwaje 
accused the NCP of using the annual migration of Misseriya Arab 
herdsmen to stoke conflict and destabilize the area, and to push 
Dinka populations further south of the Abyei border in a blatant 
land grab. 
 
Lord's Resistance Army 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kwaje was most animated when discussing recent information 
regarding the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA).  Kwaje is the SPLM's 
deputy mediator for the LRA peace talks.  He said SPLM 
representatives had traveled to LRA leader Joseph Kony's camp in the 
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) on Christmas day 2007.  He 
said they walked six hours through the jungle to reach the camp, and 
they found it to be heavily fortified with a series of well-guarded 
access gates.  Kwaje estimated that Kony still has at least 1000 
fighters, though he did not say they were all in this one particular 
camp.  (Comment: This figure seems high for one camp to support 
itself.  His next remark was that Ugandan President Museveni should 
not think he can win militarily, so the figure seemed linked to 
supporting this conclusion.  However, Kwaje claimed the LRA 
"guerillas" have turned away from pillaging and have taken up 
farming, claiming to have seen large areas under cultivation within 
the LRA camp, making it now self sufficient.  As proof of this, he 
claimed that the local population no longer lived in fear of attacks 
by the group.  He also implied that if the LRA is attacked and 
driven out of this camp, they will have no choice but to resume 
their predatory former ways.  This all seems highly doubtful to us, 
but Kwaje claims first-hand knowledge. End comment.) 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000027  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Kwaje reported that the LRA told his envoys that Vincent 
Otti is dead, but that Kony did not kill him.  Two LRA reps claimed 
that they had been detained along with Otti, and that Otti had been 
killed when a scuffle broke out in the camp.  Kwaje said there was 
no evidence that the LRA fighters had been attacking civilians or 
looting food, and said there had been no reports of LRA attacks on 
civilians in Sudan.  Regarding the next round of talks, Kwaje said 
that LRA negotiators will travel to Juba within two weeks.  Kwaje 
said the LRA reps had told the SPLM envoys that Kony still supports 
the peace process. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Kwaje seems to be well-placed politically in the SPLM.  His 
ministry is housed in a new facility, was crowded with staff and 
visitors when we visited, and Kwaje's own office is the most opulent 
we have seen in Juba.  At a dinner hosted by President Kiir and his 
top ministers for U.S. Congressman Payne January 7, Kwaje seemed to 
be one of the top movers along with Minister of the Presidency Luka 
Biong Deng and newly-appointed Governor of Jonglei State Kwol 
Manyang. 
 
Background and Bio Notes 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Agriculture Minister Samson Kwaje was shifted to this 
position during the October 2007 Government of Southern Sudan 
cabinet reshuffle (timed with the GNU reshuffle of SPLM Ministers), 
the second reshuffle since the establishment of the Government of 
Southern Sudan.   In contrast to the July 2007 reshuffle, which 
expanded the cabinet and GoSS executive service in order to 
stabilize nascent tribal rifts in the South (it largely succeeded, 
bringing in former SSDF commander Ismael Konye and appointed the 
first-ever Minister of SPLA Affairs Oyai Deng), the October 
reshuffle is regarded by most as a move by President Kiir to put the 
right people in the right jobs.  The GoSS appears to be evolving 
beyond "crisis management" into more active governance.  GoSS 
ministers previously awarded positions chiefly aimed at keeping 
Kiir's inner circle of advisors together, were re-positioned to take 
up portfolios directly relevant to their personal areas of 
expertise.  Kawje (who has a PhD in Agriculture) was previously 
Minster of Information. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Kwaje was a core member of the SPLM/A negotiating team in 
Naivasha, remains an influential member of the SPLM, and a vocal 
participant in the party's Interim National Committee and Interim 
Political Bureau meetings.  His access to GoSS President Kiir is 
significant, and stems from previously-held administrative, 
political and diplomatic positions in the SPLM/SPLA during the civil 
war.  He is a "Garangist," but this has not tempered his 
relationship with Kiir.  Kwaje believes Kiir can be persuaded to run 
for the national presidency in 2009 if pushed by the USG. 
USG-funded polling suggests that only a Muslim member of the SPLM 
can win at the national level, but Kwaje disputes this. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Kwaje is Deputy Mediator for the LRA Peace Talks (the Chief 
Mediator is GoSS Vice President Riek Machar) and was a member of the 
joint SPLM/NCP executive committee talks that improved the pace of 
CPA implementation in early 2007 before the disastrous May 2007 
meeting that led to Kiir's refusal to travel to Khartoum until 
August.  Kwaje was also part of the SPLM delegation at the September 
2007 AU Peace and Security Commission meeting focused on the CPA. 
Despite GoSS Minister of the Presidency Luka Biong Deng's leanings 
toward secession, Kwaje and Deng have an excellent relationship and 
appear to be among the inner circle that the SPLM party turns to in 
Juba to encourage Kiir when his enthusiasm for the struggle with the 
NCP in Khartoum wanes.  Kwaje has also been credited by Pagan Amum 
and current (SPLM) GNU Foreign Minister Deng Alor with expanding 
Kiir's tendency for a parochial view of the South toward a more 
strategic and comprehensive view of the entire country. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Kwaje was appointed Minister of Information, Radio and 
Television in the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) in October 
¶2005.  Prior to the signing of the CPA, Kwaje held several 
influential positions in the SPLA/M including Spokesman.  Before 
joining SPLM/A, Kwaje served as Minister of Finance in the Equatoria 
regional government in the mid-1980s.  Kwaje obtained a Bachelor's 
degree in agriculture from Makerere University in the early 1960s 
and a Master's and PhD in plant protection in the United States in 
the 1970s.  Prior to joining the SPLM/A, Dr. Kwaje was a member of 
the People's Progressive Party (PPP) that sought the re-division of 
the South into the three regions of Equatoria, Bahr El Ghazal and 
Upper Nile.  Kwaje comes from the Pojulu tribe, one of the 
Bari-speaking ethnic groups of Central Equatoria.  He was born in 
Lainya o/a 1950. He speaks English, Arabic and Bari. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000027  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
FERNANDEZ