VZCZCXRO6565
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0025/01 0080638
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 080638Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9667
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000025 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL LAW MAY NOT BE ENACTED UNTIL APRIL 
 
REF: (A) KHARTOUM 2011 
(B) KHARTOUM 1971 
(C)KHARTOUM 1834 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The draft electoral law for 2009 national and 
state elections is still being debated in the National 
Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC).  Although the current 
session of the National Assembly has been extended through 16 
January, the Assembly will be tied up with other business and will 
likely not discuss the ratification of the electoral law if 
presented with it in early January.  This means that the draft law 
will be open for discussion in the Assembly in April 2008 at the 
earliest, and a newly formed National Electoral Commission (NEC) may 
only have 10 or 11 months to plan and execute elections by the 
CPA-mandated deadline. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
THE ELECTORAL LAW - A CONSULTATIVE PROCESS 
------------------------------------------- 
¶2. (U) On 27 December, Abdallah Idris, a Yale Law School graduate 
and current co-chair of the NCRC, advised poloff of new developments 
regarding the Sudanese electoral law.  [COMMENT:  Idris, a moderate 
member of the NCP, has been an influential guiding force on 
electoral law development.  During the recent SPLM-NCP impasse, 
Idris encouraged SPLM members on the NCRC to remain engaged in the 
drafting of the law, signaling his commitment to reaching party 
consensus on the law.  END COMMENT.]  The NCRC, created per the CPA 
and composed of 60 members, more than 80 percent of which are SPLM 
and NCP party affiliates, is tasked with preparing draft laws for 
the implementation of the CPA and the process of democratization in 
Sudan.  Although normal NCRC procedure calls for subcommittees to 
first draft bills and then present them to political parties for 
input, parties (even those not represented on the NCRC - such as 
Umma and the PCP) were asked by the NCRC to first present their 
views because the electoral law is such a sensitive piece of 
legislation. Although the NCRC has significantly delayed the 
process, Idris stated, all of the political parties approached 
submitted detailed recommendations for the draft bill. Idris claims 
that this process, which started seven months ago, has created a 
positive consultative process between the political parties and the 
NCRC.  By drafting the law in this fashion, the NCRC hopes to gain 
buy-in and create national consensus on a final draft, so that it 
will be difficult for the National Assembly to vote against its 
passage. 
 
¶3. (U) Currently, the NCRC is now working on its sixth draft of the 
law.  Idris alleged that there is now consensus among parties on the 
law except for the percentages of the mixed system.  The NCP, he 
stated, is pushing for a system whereby a majority (60 percent) of 
the voting would be done by direct representation (also known as 
"first past the post"), a minority (15 percent) would be by 
proportional representation, and 25 percent of seats would be 
reserved for women.  The weakness of such a system, noted Idris, is 
that it favors election of the bigger parties (NCP and SPLM) rather 
than a mix of parties.  He said smaller parties are supporting the 
implementation of a mixed system whereby 50 percent of the vote is 
by direct representation and 50 percent is by proportional 
representation (to include at least 25 percent of seats which will 
be filled by women.)  Although the SPLM originally supported the 
proposal of the first system, Idris stated that the second option is 
gaining momentum within the SPLM and that the party membership is 
changing its position. 
 
4.(U) When the NCRC agrees on a final draft of the electoral bill, 
it will call a press conference to make the news public.  "Although 
people in power are usually not keen on elections", he said, the 
NCRC is pushing the parties toward immediate consensus for 
completion of a final draft.  He estimated that the bill should be 
released to the National Assembly in early January. 
 
5.(U) As for the naming of a National Electoral Commission (NEC), 
Idris said that the Presidency has been asked to "float names" as to 
who he may appoint to the nine-person commission.  Although the NEC 
is to be established upon passage of the electoral law, Idris 
explained that "time is of the essence" and that the Presidency must 
give thought to the Commission in advance of the law.  Legally, 
President Al-Bashir is to appoint commission members with the 
consent of First Vice-President Salva Kiir Mayardit. NEC members 
must then be approved in the National Assembly by a two-thirds 
majority. 
 
------------------------------------ 
JANUARY PASSAGE UNLIKELY, SAYS SPLM 
------------------------------------ 
¶6. (U) On 31 December, poloff met with Manoah Aligo Donga, Chairman 
of the SPLM Caucus in the National Assembly.  Aligo remarked that 
the NCRC has taken "too long" in preparing a draft of the electoral 
 
KHARTOUM 00000025  002 OF 003 
 
 
law and stated that he was certain that it will not be reviewed by 
the National Assembly in its extended January session.  The extended 
session, which is due to close on 16 January, will be used to finish 
debating issues such as the police law and the National Language 
Act, said Aligo.  The schedule for the two weeks is "full", and 
there will be no time to address new issues such as the electoral 
law (NOTE:  This is contrary to what some local news sources have 
reported, that the extended session was created specifically to 
debate the police law and the electoral law.  END NOTE) If Aligo is 
correct, then the draft law will not be reviewed by the National 
Assembly until the next meeting of the National Assembly in April 
¶2008.  He speculated that the Assembly will ratify the law by May 
2008 and that the NEC will be named sometime around June 2008. 
Given that the rainy season begins in April each year, the NEC will 
only have 10 months to plan for and carry out elections by the 
CPA-mandated deadline if the timing of events follows Aligo's 
predictions. 
 
¶7. (U) The National Assembly made no provision for elections funding 
in its 2008 budget plan because of the lack of an electoral law. 
Aligo informed poloff that as soon as the NEC is established, it 
will have to file for elections funding from the GNU's reserve fund. 
 He was skeptical that elections funding, both domestic and 
international (donor-given), would arrive on time. Aligo also 
expressed concern about the ability of the NEC to pull off elections 
in such a short time given the logistical challenges they will face 
(i.e. - lack of venues for polling stations, difficulty in 
distributing materials, etc).  Lastly, he noted that a voting system 
favoring majority direct representation would benefit the SPLM.  "We 
control a huge chunk of this country," and the 60 
(direct)-15(proportional)-25(women) split would be advantageous for 
the SPLM. 
 
-------------- 
WRONG FOCUS? 
-------------- 
¶8. (U) Sudanese Professor Mukhtar El-Assam, former University of 
Khartoum professor and current professor of political science at 
Garden City College, warned that the Sudanese are putting too much 
stock in national and state assembly elections and not enough stock 
in presidential and gubernatorial elections.  El-Assam, an elections 
expert who received his Masters and PhD in the UK and routinely 
writes on electoral issues in local newspapers, claimed that because 
so much attention is focused on the negotiation of percentages for a 
mixed electoral system, people are ignoring the importance of 
selecting the next Presidents (of the GNU and the GoSS) and state 
governors.  So far, he said, only the NCP has put forward a 
presidential candidate for the 2009 national elections, which is 
Al-Bashir.  He opined that SPLM will not put up a candidate for the 
GNU presidency, stating that they are content to fill the slot of 
the first vice-president.  The SPLM will be most focused on winning 
the presidency of the GoSS, he said. (NOTE: In theory, all Sudanese 
citizens who are registered to vote will be able to cast a ballot 
for the presidency of the GNU in the national elections. 
Additionally, Southern Sudanese, who are registered to vote in the 
elections in the South, will also be able to cast a ballot for the 
presidency of the GoSS.  If a candidate from the North wins the GNU 
presidency, the person who is elected President of the GoSS will be 
named the first vice president of the GNU.  If a candidate from the 
South wins the GNU presidency, the majority party in the National 
Assembly will select the first vice president.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶9. (U) El-Assam also discussed the potential hurdles in carrying out 
the elections by July 2009.  First, he said, the census must take 
place no later than mid-April 2008 in order to determine accurate 
voter constituencies.  Second, special attention must be paid to 
voter registration, which without an NEC in place currently lacks 
any planning, financial resources, or manpower.  Third, publication 
of the registration will be a complex process.  Finally, conducting 
campaigns and elections in Darfur will be challenging given the 
current security environment. 
 
¶10. (SBU) COMMENT:  Although delay in completing a final draft of 
the electoral law is nothing new, we were hopeful that the National 
Assembly would ratify the draft law, if received from the NCRC and 
then the Council of Ministers, in its extended January session. Even 
though our SPLM source indicated that discussion on the electoral 
law cannot be worked into the extended session, the real hold-up 
seems to continue to be the NCRC (surely the Police Law and the 
Language Act cannot be more important than the Elections Law at this 
point in Sudan's history.)  While Abdallah Idris claims that the 
NCRC is looking to reach full consensus among the parties on the law 
before it moves to the National Assembly, the fact of the matter is 
that both parties have an interest in delaying the electoral process 
and seem content to quibble over a ten percent difference in direct 
versus proportional voting.  The SPLM wants to buy time on the 
census so that the results will be more complete and include the 
 
KHARTOUM 00000025  003 OF 003 
 
 
maximum number of their constituents.  Both the NCP and the SPLM are 
content with the status quo, with hefty oil revenues currently 
shared primarily between the two CPA partners (with revenues going 
to the GNU and GoSS.)  However, both parties risk undermining their 
partnership and the CPA with their delays, and the longer the 
hold-up, the more difficult it will be for the NEC to deliver 
quality elections in 2009. 
 
FERNANDEZ