VZCZCXRO2030
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0114/01 0270533
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 270533Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9792
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000114 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NCP NAMES A NEW BUREAU OF STATISTICS CHIEF THREE MONTHS IN 
ADVANCE OF THE NATIONAL CENSUS 
 
REF: (A) KHARTOUM 027 
 
(B) 07 Khartoum 1971 
(C) 07 Khartoum 1229 
 
1.(U) SUMMARY:  In a surprise move, on January 21 the NCP named a 
new Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) director, Dr. Yassin Abdeen, 
just three months before the national census is set to take place. 
The switch has the UN confused and particularly concerned that the 
appointment was made in an attempt to further delay and obstruct the 
census from moving forward.  Census materials have begun to arrive 
in Khartoum, but the South still faces a lack of capacity and 
manpower to prepare for and execute the census. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------ 
A LAST MINUTE NCP SWITCH 
------------------------ 
¶2. (SBU) On 23 January, poloff met with UN Population Fund (UNFPA) 
technical advisor Herbert Kandeh to discuss the progress of the 
national census, scheduled for 15-30 April 2008.  Kandeh was quick 
to divulge that the NCP had sacked the director of the Central 
Bureau of Statisics (CBS), Profesor Awad Hag Ali Ahmed, and replaced 
him with a new director, Dr. Yassin El-Hag Abdeen. Abdeen is the 
former manager of Faisal Islamic Bank, the National Electricity 
Corporation of Sudan, and Sudan Airways.  He also worked at the 
Center for Future Studies, a Sudanese government-supported think 
tank in Khartoum (Note:  CDA Fernandez spoke at the Center in 
December.  End note).  Kandeh described Abdeen's appointment as a 
"political move" and believes that the NCP feared Awad had become 
"soft" on the opposition ahead of the census.  In response to this, 
the Presidency appointed Abdeen, who Kandeh described as extremely 
partisan, "tough" and "difficult." Dr. Abdeen was appointed CBS 
Director by presidential decree on 21 January. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Kandeh expressed frustration at the appointment of a new 
CBS Director just three months in advance of the census.  He fears 
that the new director, who is a physicist by trade and has no 
background in statistics, could significantly hamper and stall the 
census.  According to Kandeh, Professor Awad will resume his Post as 
Vice Chancellor at the University of Khartoum.  He described Awad as 
"stubborn and obstinate," but appreciated the fact that Awad took 
action on issues quickly. Kandeh said that UNFPA is waiting to see 
what impact Abdeen's appointment will have on the census. 
 
---------------------- 
DONORS HOLD BACK FUNDS 
---------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Kandeh, expressed frustration with the European Union and 
the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA), both chief 
international donors for the census, for holding back USD 6 million 
in technical support.  The donors have been disappointed with 
UNFPA's lack of spot-reporting on the progress of the census. They 
also demand that UNFPA present them with a detailed six-month work 
plan for census activities.  Kandeh said that a work plan will be 
discussed with the donors later this week. When released, the USD 6 
million in funding will support the production of census advocacy 
materials, the training of census monitors, and will pay UNFPA 
technical staff salaries. 
 
------------------------------ 
MATERIALS ARRIVE IN KHARTOUM 
----------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Although census questionnaires are still being printed in 
the UK, 1500 questionnaires have arrived in Khartoum. Kandeh said 
that all remaining materials should arrive in Sudan within the next 
week. Census materials (questionnaires, training materials, etc.) 
are being air-shipped to Khartoum because of the strict timeline. 
The need to air freight the materials has cost donors an extra USD 
4.5 million.  It has been decided by the NCP and the SPLM that 
northern Sudan will receive 79 percent of the questionnaires and 
southern Sudan will receive 21 percent.  Kandeh said the 79/21 
distribution has become so "petty" that the North is insisting that 
all materials be split in those proportions, including the 
distribution of pencils.  According to Kandeh, the South protested 
this for awhile, but backed down in the face of dealing with its own 
obstacles, such as behind-schedule mapping. 
 
---------------------- 
THE CENSUS AND DARFUR 
---------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) UNFPA figures show that field mapping is 95 percent 
complete in the South.  Four unmapped counties remain in the Upper 
Nile, Jonglei, and Warrap.  Mapping in the North is 100 percent 
complete with the exception of Darfur.  Approximately 20 percent of 
all three Darfur states are not yet mapped.  Kandeh said the 
unmapped areas (which include IDP camps) are inaccessible to 
government statistical staff for security reasons.  Kandeh admitted 
 
KHARTOUM 00000114  002 OF 003 
 
 
that very little census advocacy was being done, especially in 
Darfur. He stated that tribal groups in Darfur will need to decide 
whether or not they wish to participate in the census. If these 
groups decide to participate, UNFPA, in coordination with these 
groups, will need to develop a plan for how to execute the census in 
the areas where government enumerators are not welcome.  Kandeh also 
raised important questions about how the government in Khartoum will 
deal with unmapped areas in Darfur - will the NCP decide to allow 
the census to take place with incomplete mapping? If so, what are 
the implications of this decision for power-sharing? 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Khartoum government has created a security team 
specifically designed to address security issues related to the 
census.  According to Kandeh, this team is not worried about 
security issues in Darfur; it claims there are "no problems" there. 
Instead, the team is focused on potential problems in the South, 
especially in Jonglei and Southern Kordofan.  The group maintains 
this posture even though the only major security incident that has 
occurred was the hijacking of two census vehicles in South Darfur in 
December. 
 
---------------------- 
WHICH WAY WILL HE GO? 
---------------------- 
¶8. (SBU) Two potentially troublesome issues that will fall in the 
hands of new CBS Director Abdeen are the release of remaining 
government census funds and the number of statistical centers in the 
North.  USD 18 million in census funding was written into the 2008 
GNU budget.  The funds are meant to be used for census advocacy, 
warehousing of materials, and payment of enumerators.  According to 
Kandeh, former CBS Director Awad believed that a large chunk of this 
funding was unnecessary and argued that funds only be used to pay 
enumerators.  UNFPA strongly believes that the funds should be used 
as intended, especially in the area for advocacy.  It will now be up 
to new Director Abdeen to determine the use of these funds. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Former director Awad also fought for the establishment of 
six statistical centers in the North.  UNFPA argues that the North 
should only have one center (as the South will have) in order to 
avoid confusion in the merging of data. Kandeh also pointed out that 
more centers could lead to greater room for data manipulation.  The 
number of centers in the North will also be determined by new 
Director Abdeen. 
 
------------ 
MONITORING 
------------ 
¶10. (SBU) The GNU has set up an NCP-led census monitoring and 
observation committee (MOC) that will report all information 
directly to the GNU.  Individual monitoring groups will not be 
allowed to release press reports or statements on their own 
monitoring experiences.    According to Kandeh, the EU is providing 
funds for observers.  UNFPA's proposal, which has yet to be approved 
by the EU, allows for two monitors (one international, one local) 
per state to observe the process for a period of two months. 
According to Kandeh, the UN will also provide census monitors. 
 
------------------------------ 
OBSTACLES IN THE SOUTH REMAIN 
------------------------------ 
¶11. (U) Kandeh said that while the North has printed one-third of 
its enumeration area (EA) maps, the South has not yet begun printing 
its maps.  Enumerators will need maps to conduct their work. 
According to Kandeh, there continues to be a general lack of 
capacity in the South, especially with regard to staffing.  The 
Southern Sudan Centre for Census, Statistics and Evaluation (SSCCSE) 
is considering bringing in up to 30 trained demographers from 
neighboring national census offices (principally Uganda and Kenya) 
to assist in printing maps and training enumerators.  A total of 
40,000 enumerators will be hired to carry out the census in the 
North.  According to Kandeh, the CBS will second teachers to act as 
enumerators.  The South is planning for a total of 10,000 
enumerators but it is uncertain how the SSCCSE will obtain this 
staff.  The first round of enumerator training is scheduled for late 
February in Juba and Khartoum. 
 
¶12. (U) Kandeh said that Sudanese in refugee camps outside of Sudan 
will not be able to participate in the census unless they return to 
Sudan by the evening that the census takes place.  He said that the 
UN-supported Radio Miraya, which has a large audience in the South, 
is advocating that refugees return to Sudan for the census (ref A). 
 
¶13. (SBU) COMMENT: The NCP's decision to replace the CBS chief just 
three months before the census is not surprising, especially given 
the NCP concern that the former director was not loyal.  Former 
director Awad was known to be difficult and somewhat obstructionist 
 
KHARTOUM 00000114  003 OF 003 
 
 
to the census process, but our initial information indicates that 
newly-appointed director Abdeen may be even harder to work with. 
However, the most challenging obstacle to a successful census in 
April remains the lack of capacity and preparation in the South. END 
COMMENT. 
 
FERNANDEZ