VZCZCXRO1013
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0110/01 0251000
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251000Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9783
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000110 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU CD
SUBJECT: GOS SQUEEZE ON NON-SIGNATORIES IN DARFUR 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Following the December 30 arrest of Justice and 
Equality Movement (JEM) representative GEN Mohamed Bashir in El 
Fasher, the Government of Sudan (GoS) finally released Bashir but 
has ordered all non-signatory representatives to the ceasefire 
commission to leave El Fasher.  As the last of the non-signatories 
prepare to depart El Fasher, there may be an increase in fighting 
among rebel groups and government forces (already happening in West 
Darfur).  This situation will present a formidable challenge to 
UNAMID as it tries to keep some semblance of peace between the GoS 
and the exiled rebel movements. END SUMMARY. 
 
JEM CFC REPS FORCED BACK TO THE FIELD 
------------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) After a two-week detention, JEM representative to the 
Ceasefire Commission (CFC) was finally released from military 
intelligence custody in El Fasher on January 17, along with six 
other JEM reps who had been taken along with him from his home on 
December 30.  Military intelligence also released a recently 
detained JEM/Collective Leadership rep and a JEM/Khalil Ibrahim rep 
who had been arrested in Kulbus on December 14.  The stipulation of 
the release, which was brokered by United Nations-African Union 
Mission in the Sudan (UNAMID) Joint Special Representative Adada and 
UNAMID Force Commander (FC) Agwai, was that all JEM/Khalil Ibrahim 
reps were to depart El Fasher for their areas of control within 24 
hours. 
 
¶3. (SBU) JEM reps flew out of El Fasher on January 18 via UNAMID 
aircraft to El Geneina, accompanied by UNAMID Chief of Staff (CoS) 
to ensure their safe arrival before they were to be lifted to the 
field.  However, FieldOff received a call from a JEM reps aboard the 
plane then on the El Geneina runway; he reported that after 
surrounding the aircraft with ten vehicles, the GoS declared it had 
arrived unannounced and threatened to board it and arrest its 
passengers.  The JEM rep was also trying to get in touch with the 
UNAMID FC, since the CoS had already left to return to El Fasher. 
FieldOff contacted the CoS, who immediately alerted the FC to follow 
up with the UNAMID Sector Commander in West Darfur.  About 45 
minutes later, FieldOff received a call from GEN Bashir, who called 
from a car en route to El Geneina military intelligence headquarters 
after the GoS had boarded the plane.  Bashir reported that the 
Sector Commander was with them.  At 2100h local time Bashir called 
to say that he and the other JEM members had been released to UNAMID 
custody and were awaiting a morning flight back to their area, since 
it was too late to transport them that night.  The reps were flown 
via UNAMID helicopter to the Jebel Mun area on January 19. 
 
JEM POSITION HARDENING 
---------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) GEN Bashir told FieldOff on January 20 that despite the 
satisfaction of being back in the field with fellow JEM members, the 
absence of a JEM presence in El Fasher would not bode well for the 
Darfur peace process or for the success of any peace or ceasefire 
agreements.  He said the lack of security for non-signatory 
movements in El Fasher precluded the possibility of their return and 
that it would be incumbent upon the international community to 
conduct shuttle diplomacy between the GoS and JEM leadership in the 
field to bridge the gap.  FieldOff reminded him of JEM leader Khalil 
Ibrahim's public promise to consider joining the peace process once 
GEN Bashir and other detained JEM members were released, and urged 
him to engage constructively with UNAMID in this regard, especially 
since UNAMID had a hand in securing his own release from detention. 
GEN Bashir agreed to relay the message.  FieldOff reiterated this 
message on January 22 to another JEM rep, who criticized the GoS for 
the expulsion of non-signatory movements from El Fasher.  He also 
expressed growing disillusionment with UNAMID for failing to engage 
with JEM.  The JEM rep complained that UNAMID seems to be ignoring 
rebel groups - a dangerous move, he said, since these groups can 
assure the security of UNAMID in the field. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile, UNAMID reported on January 21 that the security 
situation in West Darfur remained unpredictable.  The GOS had 
reinforced its positions in El Geneina and Kutum, while the JEM 
appeared to be positioning itself to keep the GoS out of its West 
Darfur strongholds, including El Geneina.  UNAMID warned that "all 
factions are preparing for war," and that they must be urged to 
exercise restraint.  GEN Bashir informed FieldOff in the late 
afternoon of the same day that the GoS had begun an aerial 
bombardment of Jebel Mun but that no casualties resulted.  Bashir 
proudly reported that in retaliation JEM had shot down a GoS MiG-28 
in the mountains near Kabkabiya and had forced another GoS MiG to 
make an emergency landing in Nyala.  (Note: These claims have not 
been confirmed by independent sources though UNAMID is 
investigating. End note.)  The shooting of the MiG in North Darfur, 
he crowed, "is very good for us."  GEN Bashir also claimed that the 
GOS has sent three convoys to Jebel Mun (where JEM is located) with 
armaments to attack JEM forces.  FieldOff discussed these reports 
with the Deputy FC, who had received similar information but could 
not confirm them. 
 
KHARTOUM 00000110  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
OTHER NON-SIGNATORIES FORCED TO FOLLOW JEM'S LEAD 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶6. (SBU) JEM is not the only non-signatory movement to depart El 
Fasher in recent days.  On January 21 Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) 
factions and JEM/Collective Leadership received word through UNAMID 
that the GoS had given them 24 hours to leave El Fasher and to 
return to their areas of control elsewhere in Darfur.  On January 
23, a National Intelligence and Security Services representative in 
El Fasher confirmed to FieldOff that Military Intelligence submitted 
this instruction via UNAMID to pass to the non-signatories, and that 
it had been a military decision.  One SLA rep told FieldOff that 
this expulsion policy would make it difficult for them to return to 
the peace process.  Even signatory groups fear for their safety in 
El Fasher; three SLA/Minni Minawi and SLA/Free Will reps told 
FieldOff on January 22 that they feared the GoS would eventually 
find an excuse to crack down on their members in the same way. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Most observers in El Fasher agree that the GoS 
expulsion of non-signatory movements does not bode well for the 
security situation in Darfur.  This may complicate both UNAMID's 
role in attempting to mediate between rebel forces and the 
government and the efforts of the international community to secure 
a minimum ceasefire as a basic confidence-building measure for peace 
talks. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Tripoli minimize considered. 
 
FERNANDEZ