VZCZCXRO6558
RR RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0086/01 0080416
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 080416Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2313
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 4343
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO DAS CAMP, SCA/A 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CENTCOM FOR CG CSTC-A, CG CJTF-82 POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958 N/A 
TAGS: MCAP MOPS PREL PGOV PTER PHUM AF
SUBJECT: PANJSHIR PROVINCE: EXCELLENT SECURITY, GOOD GOVERNANCE AND 
IMPROVING INFRASTRUCTURE 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Panjshir has no insurgent threat and generally 
good governance, making reconstruction and development projects 
possible in the province.  With Commander's Emergency Response 
Program (CERP) and "Good Performer" money guaranteed to flow for at 
least the next fiscal cycle, Panjshir can expect continued 
infrastructure development.  The province's unique geography, 
overwhelmingly rural character, and mono-ethnicity are all factors 
in its good performance. End Summary. 
 
Security 
------- 
¶2. (SBU) In 2007, there were only a handful of security incidents in 
Panjshir, including an attack on a girls' school and an attempted 
IED attack.  In late summer, a small group of Taliban was caught and 
arrested inside the province; they were lured to Panjshir from 
Baghlan by a successful National Directorate of Security (NDS) sting 
operation.  Governor Bahlul gives much of the credit for the 
province's security to the locals, who notice any outsiders, whether 
by appearance or by accent, and question their reason for being in 
the valley.  The "Lion's Gate" checkpoint at the narrowest point of 
the Panjshir river valley remains the only way in and out for all 
vehicles, providing additional control.  PRT officials are able to 
travel within the province with no body armor and in unarmored 
vehicles.  Panjshir's Afghan National Police (ANP) contingent was 
reduced in 2007, against the wishes of the Governor, but regardless 
of ANP numbers, the fundamental factor protecting the province is 
likely to remain its "community-watch" posture.  The provincial 
leadership remains on guard against insurgents disguised as outside 
contractors, and the PRT and the provincial security forces screen 
contractors who come to Panjshir, typically from Kabul. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The first PRT rotations in Panjshir (2005-2006) focused on 
the issue of landmine- and munition-stockpiles in Panjshir.  This 
issue has faded in importance for several reasons.  After several 
months of quietly carting out the landmines in unmarked trucks to 
Kabul, the Afghan Ministry of Defense (MoD) in late 2007 issued a 
written certification that Panjshir was landmine-free.  In addition, 
the GIRoA announced that the Disarmament, Demobilization and 
Reintegration (DDR) program's deadline would be extended for another 
four years, removing any sense of urgency.  Panjshir maintains 
several munition stockpiles inside the valley guarded by the Afghan 
National Army (ANA) - the only regular ANA presence in the valley. 
Due to the possibility that munitions from these stockpiles could be 
bought or stolen and smuggled out of the valley, it would be 
preferable that the stockpiles be transferred to MOD central 
storage, but the MOD appears to be satisfied with the status quo. 
The ANA chief of staff, Bismullah Khan, is a prominent Panjshiri. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Panjshir remains poppy free and stands to benefit from the 
"Good Performance Initiative".  There are no poppy farmers in 
Panjshiri jails, only drug traffickers, and visits from the PRT 
suggest these traffickers endure harsher jail conditions than 
murderers. 
 
Governance 
---------- 
¶5. (SBU) Governor Haji Bahlul Bahij remains the key politician in 
the province.  He continues to grow in sophistication and 
confidence; he appears to act honestly, and his stature in the 
province is unchallenged.  He makes oft-repeated appeals to 
"democracy," which in his view means having popular support for any 
undertaking and showing value-for-money in the execution of projects 
and the delivery of services.  He stays focused on the Panjshir and 
does not involve himself in national issues. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Provincial Council (PC) in Panjshir has little 
authority.  The Governor does not turn to the PC for advice, nor 
does the PC challenge the Governor.  The PC does provide an 
interface for the PRT with local communities.  The PRT involves 
individual PC members in trips throughout the valley; from the 
communities' side, the PC members are (unfortunately) seen all too 
often as messengers to deliver supplicants' requests to the PRT. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The district managers of Panjshir's six districts are 
variable in quality, as are the Panjshir ministry line directors. 
The best are the line directors for economy, education, and public 
 
KABUL 00000086  002 OF 002 
 
 
health, who display organization and commitment.  At the bottom are 
the line directors for women's affairs, public works, and 
information/culture, who have consistently demonstrated their 
incompetence and, in some instances, their venality. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The ANP chief, General Waliullah, does not enjoy the trust 
of the Governor.  At the district level, the PRT has very close and 
good relations with the district chiefs, and ANP officers regularly 
accompany PRT missions.  While the ANP's recent reduction in size is 
probably not critical to the handling of routine crimes, it could be 
significant in denying the ANP the ability to monitor adequately the 
province's borders. (Note: although safeguarded by high mountains on 
all sides, Panjshir borders provinces with active insurgencies.) 
 
¶9. (SBU) Official corruption is not a concern in Panjshir, and 
Governor Bahlul can appear almost cocky when challenging visitors to 
find a single incidence in which Panjshir has been cited for 
official corruption.  This apparent lack of corruption may have 
several reasons.  First, there is no poppy crop and no significant 
drug trade.  Second, Panjshir's close-knit society means that 
suspicious financial activity would come to the attention of the 
authorities; as long as the Governor is feared as an enforcer, 
would-be embezzlers and siphoners have to wonder if the risk is 
worth the reward.  Finally, Panjshiri officials mostly live in 
Panjshir with their families; thus, they do not have the need to 
steal money to subsidize family members living elsewhere, especially 
family members living abroad. 
 
Development 
----------- 
¶10. (U) Panjshir's leaders see infrastructure as the priority.  In 
spring 2007, USAID completed Panjshir's first paved road, covering 
47 kilometers and costing 20 million dollars.  CJTF-82 and TF 
Cincinnatus have provided more than 10 million dollars to fund two 
spurs off the paved road to provide road access to most of the 
valley's population.  Panjshir will soon have new district center 
buildings in all six districts.  At the provincial government center 
in Bazarak, construction is underway on buildings for ministries 
(agriculture, public works, finance) and for the governor and other 
organizations (Red Crescent, Afghanistan Bank).  Privately-funded 
cellphone towers and cellphone coverage have made their way further 
and further up the valley. 
 
¶11. (U) The NGO presence in Panjshir is less than expected in a 
province that is free from insurgency.  One notable exception is 
"Emergency", an Italian NGO that has run Panjshir's only hospital 
and some clinics for several years. 
 
¶12. (U) Power remains a constraint, although the agriculture-based 
economy allows the Panjshir to use relatively little electricity, 
generated by small hydro-electric generators along the Panjshir 
river.   Additional power will come from a CERP-funded wind-turbine 
project - Afghanistan's first - due to come on-line in the spring of 
¶2008. 
WOOD