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Viewing cable 08KABUL71, 2007 IN REVIEW

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
08KABUL71 2008-01-07 08:26 2011-08-24 01:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Kabul
VZCZCXRO5905
OO RUEHIK RUEHPOD RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0071/01 0070826
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 070826Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2295
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KABUL 000071 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A 
NSC FOR WOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CENTCOM FOR CG CJTF-82 POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID SNAR ECON KPAO PREF AF
SUBJECT: 2007 IN REVIEW 
 
KABUL 00000071  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) 2007 was a year of important progress, but also continued 
challenge.  The good news was on the battlefield, the economy, and 
strengthened local and national institutions.  The bad news was 
increased terrorism, increased drug cultivation, and corruption. 
Afghanistan already is seeing leaders position themselves for the 
2009 elections. 
 
Governance 
---------- 
 
2. (SBU) In response to U.S. urging, there was new emphasis on 
effective local government to overcome lack of capacity, pervasive 
corruption at all levels, and passivity.  Control of governors 
(appointed) shifted from the troubled Ministry of Interior to the 
Presidency, under an able and honest director.  We have seen better 
appointments and better coordination in just a few months.  We are 
supporting this effort both in Kabul and through our PRTs and those 
PRTs where there is a US presence. 
 
3. (SBU) The Parliament passed more laws than ever before, including 
some important and difficult legislation.  Political rivalries, 
election pre-positioning, and disagreement over the powers of the 
branches became confrontational when the Parliament walked out in 
protest of President Karzai's refusal to sack ministers who had lost 
a no-confidence vote.  Ethnic division surfaced as the northern, 
Tajik dominated "United Front" emerged as a significant opposition 
political force, leading the President to play more to his Pashtun 
base.  Preparations are underway to support parliamentary and 
presidential elections in 2009/2010.  We are already seeing tension 
between good governance and raw politics as the Administration and 
the opposition jockey for the support of sometimes questionable 
leaders who control blocs of votes. 
 
Development 
----------- 
 
4. (SBU) 2007 saw a continued focus on spreading governance and 
economic opportunity through the construction or refurbishment of 
District Centers, roads and canals.  The mix of traditional AID 
assistance at the national level, and CERP/PRT assistance for quick 
impact local projects is working well. 
 
5. (SBU) We expect to increase power output to the southern part of 
the country from the Kajaki dam from about 21MW to 33MW by the end 
of 2008, with another 17MW the year after that.  The rehabilitation 
of the dam had been on hold for 18 months due to security concerns. 
We also expect to install about 66MW of fuel-fed generating capacity 
in the Kabul area by next winter, and another 33MW shortly 
thereafter.  Bids are out for generating capacity at the Shebergan 
natural gas field and negotiations are underway for power purchase 
agreements with Uzbekistan and Afghanistan's other northern 
neighbors. 
 
6. (SBU) We built over 650 km of roads in 2007, and project more in 
2008.  Roads remain the project most sought by Afghans. 
Unfortunately, they also are prime targets for terrorism and 
insurgency, and for police bribe-taking at illegal check-points. 
Security of the roads is a high Embassy and ISAF priority.  The ring 
road connecting all major population and production centers of the 
country is almost complete except for the Japanese portion in the 
southwest and for a less important portion in the northwest between 
Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif. 
 
7. (SBU) Preparation of the Afghan National Development Strategy is 
coming into the final stretch, prior to submission in March to the 
World Bank.  We expect detailed submissions for three sectors -- 
energy, roads, and health -- but the remaining five will be 
submitted in outline form.  Nevertheless, we expect the submissions 
to provide the basis for international developmental assistance 
planning and especially for pledges at an expected June meeting of 
international donors.  We are working hard to make the Kabul 
planners pay sufficient attention to the locally generated 
priorities that distinguish the ANDS process from more traditional 
planning exercises. 
 
 
KABUL 00000071  002 OF 005 
 
 
8. (SBU) Other 2007 assistance highlights include: 
 
-- Elections assistance that will continue through 2009. 
 
-- Very successful agricultural fairs that brought together large 
numbers of producers and distributors in Kabul and other 
agricultural centers. 
 
-- Medical assistance that, inter alia, helped reduce infant 
mortality by some 80,000 deaths per year. 
 
-- $49.3 million in assistance to the UNHCR, the ICRC and NGOs to 
provide returning Afghan refugees with humanitarian assistance, 
shelter, water, education, health, and livelihoods. 
 
-- Printing and distribution of over 11 million textbooks and 
support for almost 6 million students in school. 
 
-- Creation of over 62,000 jobs through support for 50,000 private 
loans to small- and medium-sized enterprises. 
 
-- Opening of the Afghanistan-Tajikistan "Friendship Bridge." 
 
-- Planting of more than 2.5 million trees, both to stabilize the 
environment and provide employment. 
 
Security 
-------- 
 
9. (SBU) The Taliban lost control of two major districts in Helmand 
province in the south, Sangin and Musa Qala, while not gaining any 
new districts under their control.  Despite publicity-generating, 
short-lived assaults on remote district centers, the Taliban were 
forced out of these locations after losing a number of field 
commanders and troops. 
 
10. (SBU) The Afghan army grew in size and capability.  We expect it 
to reach its currently projected end strength of 70,000 in about a 
year, although a U.S. Army study is underway that may recommend a 
larger Afghan army end-state.  Although it cannot yet take the lead 
from ISAF, the army is playing a steadily increasing role on the 
battlefield and contributed to the successful 2007 fighting season. 
 
11. (SBU) Perhaps as a result of its lack of success on the 
battlefield, the Taliban placed greater emphasis on terrorism with 
more landmines, suicide attacks, kidnappings, human rights abuses 
and atrocities committed against the local population.  Although the 
Taliban's most frequent targets this year were Afghan security 
forces, UN studies have shown that the overwhelming majority of 
victims were civilians. 
 
12. (SBU) The Taliban strategy appears to have shifted from trying 
to win the loyalty of the people to trying to intimidate them. 
Although Taliban terrorism is confined to only about ten percent of 
the nation's districts, it is having a major impact:  the people 
feel more insecure due to terrorism, warlord and drug trafficking 
criminality, and continued weakness in the police and military 
forces.  After a hiatus, security has become a serious issue of 
concern in the minds of Afghans, including in the Kabul area. 
 
13. (SBU) With a few notable exceptions, such as the Baghlan bombing 
in November that killed prominent legislators, the north has 
remained secure.  The south remained very difficult due to the 
presence both of insurgents and the drug trade.  The west had its 
most difficult recent year, resulting from the combination of 
insurgency, Iranian influence, drug trafficking, tribal rivalries, 
and restricted responses by some ISAF members.  The east has seen an 
overall improvement in security thanks to effective 
counter-insurgency efforts by the U.S.  Eastern Afghanistan also saw 
numerous border incidents involving Taliban, Pakistani frontier 
forces and, more rarely, Pakistani military forces.  Recent 
Pakistani efforts against extremist centers, however, have reduced 
both incidents and insurgent infiltration into the east. 
 
The Police 
---------- 
 
14. (SBU) The police continue to be weak, but improving.  Pay and 
 
KABUL 00000071  003 OF 005 
 
 
rank reform programs raised police salaries to rough parity with the 
army and, in the process, vetted senior officers to remove or demote 
unqualified or unsuitable incumbents.  The Afghan government is very 
enthusiastic about the new Focused District Development (FDD) 
program, which will retrain and reequip entire police units 
district-by-district.  The first tranche of FDD training began on 
December 26.  The Interior Ministry and the police must still 
overcome challenges of corruption, illegal check-points, and lack of 
training, equipment and confidence in their own mission.  Because of 
the shortage of international police trainers and mentors, some 
mentoring teams have had to shift away from working with the army, 
where they are also critically needed, to support the police. 
 
Counter-Narcotics 
----------------- 
 
15. (SBU) Drug production grew by 34 percent in 2007 according to 
the UN, accounting for more than 90 percent of the world's heroin. 
Half the increase was due to increased cultivation and half to 
higher yields resulting from an end to drought conditions.  Although 
most poppy cultivation was centered in the southern provinces, 
Nangarhar, in the east, saw a 285% increase, in cultivation over 
2006.  Total eradication in 2007 was just under 20,000 hectares, up 
from 15,300 hectares the year before.  The number of poppy-free 
provinces in Afghanistan more than doubled, from six to 13. 
 
16. (SBU) The symbiotic nexus of insurgency, corruption, and drug 
trafficking represents a huge challenge to our goals of peace, 
democracy, development, and decency.  The Afghans have rejected U.S. 
recommendations to deploy aerial spray.  The government has 
increased cooperation in narcotics interdiction but to date no 
high-level traffickers have been convicted on narcotics charges. 
According to UNODC's December prognosis, 2008 cultivation patterns 
continue the pattern of decreased cultivation in the more secure 
northern and central provinces while cultivation stays high in the 
insecure south and southwest.  U.S. public and private insistence on 
the dangers of illicit drug production, coupled with enhanced 
incentives for reduction of cultivation, may reduce planting in a 
few areas.  But we expect overall acreage to go up again. 
 
Rule of Law 
----------- 
 
17. (SBU) The Rome Rule of Law Conference secured substantial new 
pledges for rule of law and demonstrated the international consensus 
to support this sector.  At the end of 2007 the Afghan Justice 
Sector is better organized but suffers from a lack of trained 
personnel, a crumbling physical infrastructure, ineffectual law 
enforcement in the provinces, an inadequate legal framework, and 
most of all, pervasive corruption.  For most of the country, 
institutional justice remains distant.  One outcome of the Rome 
conference was renewed emphasis on provincial and rural justice 
systems.  Better community policing, better local governance and 
closer cooperation with some of the traditional systems of justice 
offer some short-term answers.  Also, for more specialized law 
enforcement threats, we need better police for border security, 
customs, counter-narcotics, and defense of towns and districts under 
insurgent pressure.  We have not yet found an optimal division of 
labor among the internationals between short-term solutions and the 
long-term ideal of a fully institutionalized justice system. 
 
Economic 
-------- 
 
18. (SBU) In spite of trade and other impediments, the IMF reports 
the legitimate real economy is growing at 13 percent annually, the 
highest rate in South Asia.  The Ministry of Finance is on track to 
meet its revenue target of $715 million for this year.  Per capita 
income has doubled since 2002 from a very low base to around $300. 
Nevertheless, Afghanistan remains a very poor country, even by 
African standards.  Prices for household staples have risen across 
Afghanistan, driven primarily by worldwide increases in prices of 
key commodities.  Higher prices for the basic food basket are 
reducing satisfaction with the government, leading it to increased 
interference in the economy.  Cabinet and Parliament have discussed 
instituting price controls and reviving state-owned enterprises to 
provide food at fixed, subsidized prices, a source of concern for us 
and the IMF. 
 
KABUL 00000071  004 OF 005 
 
 
 
Media 
----- 
 
19. (SBU) Increasing education and the free flow of ideas through 
the media are transforming Afghanistan.  Kabul-based radio and 
television reach much of the country, and their sophistication is 
growing.  Recent discussion programs have addressed institutional 
corruption, the dynamic between the executive and legislative 
branches, the effectiveness of President Karzai, and a range of 
social issues.  Much of the programming is critical of the 
government, which on occasion has drawn a troubling response.  In 
recent months journalists have been detained for short periods 
without explanation. 
 
20. (SBU) The Government's communications capability is improving. 
A new Director of Communications in the Presidency has improved the 
effort, and helped coordinate messages with the international 
community on difficult questions like civilian casualties resulting 
from military actions.  We expect a new Government Media Center 
(GMC), planned as a government-wide communications clearinghouse, to 
be fully functioning by February 2008. 
 
The Borders 
----------- 
 
21. (SBU) Over the last year the government has incrementally 
improved the management of Afghanistan's borders.  The Afghan Border 
Police (ABP) has received advanced training and equipment necessary 
to assume a new, proactive role in border security activities.  At 
the two major Afghan border crossings - Torkham and Islam Qalah - 
U.S. mentor teams serve as a liaison between the Afghan Customs and 
ABP management, provide management advice and specialized training 
to both customs and ABP officers.  At the Ministry of Finance, the 
Border Management Task Force initiated a mentor relationship with 
ministry staff to enhance productivity and revenue collection 
accounting.  The U.S.-financed Afghan-Tajik Bridge that Commerce 
Secretary Gutierrez dedicated in August 2007 has proven a great 
 
SIPDIS 
success in promoting cross border trade.  In its first month of 
limited operations, Afghan government customs revenue nearly doubled 
from $80,000 to $150,000. 
 
International 
------------- 
 
22. (SBU) Afghanistan continues to be high on the international 
agenda.  Russia, China, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are 
prominent among those who do not contribute troops but have an 
intense interest in developments here.  In 2007 literally dozens of 
heads of government, foreign ministers, and defense ministers came 
to visit their troops, observe development activities, and exchange 
views with President Karzai. 
 
23. (SBU) Relations with Pakistan moved forward with several 
summits, the successful August bilateral peace jirga in Kabul, and 
President Karzai's successful visit to Islamabad in late December. 
Our primary goals are better cooperation against extremists and 
terrorists along the border, easier flow of goods and services 
between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the voluntary return of the 
2.5 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan.  Although developments have 
been delayed by political events in Pakistan, Afghanistan hopes to 
renew these initiatives after national elections there. 
 
24. (SBU) Relations with Iran took a step backward as a result of 
forced repatriation of more than 360,000 unregistered Afghans from 
Iran, opposition to hydro projects along the border, evidence of 
Iranian provision of weapons, technology, and training to the 
Taliban, and Iranian support for the United Front opposition 
movement (northern, non-Pashtun).  But Iran also provided extensive 
development and cultural assistance, is playing an increasingly 
dominant role in western Afghanistan, and is ready to cooperate on 
counter-narcotics.  We are expecting a new ambassador to replace the 
relatively moderate former ambassador, who departed more than a 
month ago. 
 
25. (SBU) Relations with the northern neighbors -- Turkmenistan, 
Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan - remained cordial and continued 
incremental practical improvement.  The new bridge to Tajikistan 
 
KABUL 00000071  005 OF 005 
 
 
could be a gateway to Central Asia if the Tajiks, Afghans, and 
Pakistanis would put their shoulders behind it.  Talks are also 
progressing in fits and starts on arrangements for Afghanistan to 
purchase power from the three, with Uzbekistan closest to fruition. 
Afghanistan and its three northern neighbors share the view that 
energy resources and production should be kept in the public sector, 
with private firms providing some electricity but without ownership 
of the basic infrastructure. 
 
WOOD