VZCZCXRO3928
OO RUEHIK RUEHPW RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #0243/01 0291300
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 291300Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2592
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000243 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR JWOOD 
OSD FOR SHIVERS 
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: CABINET PASSES ELECTION LAW TO PARLIAMENT WITHOUT 
PARTY PROVISIONS 
 
REF: KABUL 130 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The draft election law forwarded by the Cabinet to 
the Parliament on January 23 is essentially the same as the 
existing election law, retaining the single nontransferable 
voting (SNTV) system used in the 2005 parliamentary elections 
and incorporating no element of proportional representation 
(PR) favored by some parliamentary leaders, including Speaker 
Qanooni.  It also prohibits candidates from running in two 
constituencies at the same time, a provision which would 
appear to prevent Qanooni from seeking a parliamentary seat 
and the presidency simultaneously if the elections are 
consolidated.  The draft law is the first bid in the 
presidential-parliamentary negotiations that could lead to a 
consolidated election calendar in exchange for an element of 
proportional representation.  Post continues to press for 
timely resolution of these issues within the scope of the 
Constitution. 
 
Law Arrives at Parliament Without Party Provisions 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (SBU) After months of internal deliberation, the Cabinet 
forwarded to the Parliament on January 23 the government's 
draft of the amended election law.  Parliamentary leaders 
have said the law is a top legislative priority in its 
current term, which began on January 21.  The draft law is 
little changed from the existing law used in the 2004/5 
elections.  It retains the single nontransferable voting 
(SNTV) system and incorporates no element of proportional 
representation (PR) favored by some parliamentary leaders, 
including Speaker Yunus Qanooni.  The draft law does not 
explicitly permit candidates to list their party affiliation 
on the ballot, but neither is it forbidden as in the existing 
law. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The draft law stipulates that no individual can run 
in more than one electoral constituency in the same election. 
 While the wording is ambiguous, this could prevent Qanooni 
from running for a Parliamentary seat and the Presidency 
simultaneously if the elections are consolidated.  No 
candidates for any office can hold foreign citizenship, which 
in theory would exclude the several current MPs who are 
dual-nationals.  Enforcement would be difficult. 
 
Smaller Districts, Local Councils, Other Provisions 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The draft law, unlike the existing law, requires 
large provinces entitled to ten or more parliamentary seats 
on the basis of population to be sub-divided into smaller 
districts.  (This includes at least Kabul, Nangarhar, Ghazni, 
Kandahar, Herat, and Mazar-e Sharif).  Elections experts 
insist that smaller constituencies increase the 
representativeness of the elections, but the process of 
electoral district delineation can be controversial and 
burdensome.  The draft law assigns this task to a commission 
comprised of representatives of the Independent Election 
Commission, the Central Statistical Office, and the 
Independent Directorate for Local Governance. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Like the existing election law, the draft law 
includes provisions for the election of District and Village 
Councils, as well as Municipal Councils and Mayors, but it 
remains to be seen whether the government will implement 
these provisions in the 2009/10 election cycle.  (Mayors are 
the only elected executives apart from the President in the 
Afghan constitutional structure.  Like presidential 
elections, mayoral elections require the winner to receive 
over 50 percent of the vote, often necessitating a run-off, 
with implications for the election calendar.) 
 
¶6. (SBU) The draft law explicitly calls for a voter list, 
which requires a voter registration.  The law raises the 
 
KABUL 00000243  002 OF 002 
 
 
number of signatures required for candidates to stand for 
election (10,000 for President, 1,500 for Wolesi Jirga, 
200-600 for Provincial Council depending on population).  It 
seems to require disclosure of financial assets, but the 
language is incomplete and vague (Article 46: "Provision of 
information in relation to the moveable and non-moveable 
assets.").  The draft law allows the IEC to suspend polling 
"if security or other unpredictable events or situations make 
the holding of an election impossible, or seriously threaten 
the legitimacy of an election." 
 
Commission Prepares for Calendar Discussion 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The government continues to favor the consolidation 
of the elections in the fall of 2009, as reported reftel and 
in subsequent discussions with the IEC.  Qanooni insists that 
he favors "on time" elections, making it clear that means 
following the cycle used in the last elections.  This would 
mean presidential elections in 2009 and parliamentary in 
¶2010.  (It is not clear whether Qanooni would object to 
holding Presidential elections in the fall rather than the 
spring.) 
 
¶8.  (SBU) While the election system is determined by law, the 
election calendar is determined by the constitution, although 
this is subject to interpretation, which provides a little 
leeway.  If there is a challenge to efforts to consolidate 
the calendar, resolution of the issue could trigger a 
constitutional convention which would be impossible to 
control.  The informal commission (which will include 
Qanooni) called by President Karzai to establish a calendar 
consistent with the constitution has not yet met.  The IEC 
chairman is out of the country for family reasons, and the 
parliament is tied down with elections for Parliamentary 
leadership positions.  The calendar will not be set before 
the February meeting of the Joint Coordination and Monitoring 
Board (JCMB) in Tokyo. 
 
A Grand Bargain Needed on the Calendar and Law 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9. (SBU) The draft election law that emerged from the Cabinet 
lays out Karzai's position on how the elections should be 
conducted.  There will be tough negotiations with Qanooni 
over the law, and we expect trade-offs on the issue of the 
law and the calendar.  Most observers believe that Qanooni 
and the opposition he leads will accept a consolidated 
election calendar in exchange for an element of proportional 
representation introduced into the parliamentary elections. 
Post continues to press for timely resolution of these issues 
within the scope of the Constitution. 
WOOD