VZCZCXRO1102
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0073/01 0251110
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251110Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2425
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 1827
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 1741
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 1867
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1144
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1501
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1923
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 4351
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0994
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC//DHO-7//
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK//DOOC/ECMO/CC/DAO/DOB/DOI//
RUEPGBA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ23-CH/ECJ5M//

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. HILL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND E.LOKEN 
TREASURY FOR J. RALYEA AND T.RAND 
COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC ECON EMIN ENRG ETRD PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: REGIONAL BLACKOUTS UNDERSCORE ZIMBABWE'S POWER WOES 
 
REF: A. LUSAKA 074 
     ¶B. 07 HARARE 0998 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Power blackouts across the region this week have 
underscored the precarious state of Zimbabwe's regional and 
domestic power supply.  South Africa no longer exports power 
to Zimbabwe; the DRC supply is erratic; Cahora Bassa 
Hydroelectric (HCB) in Mozambique is holding Zimbabwe on a 
tight leash, and Zimbabwe must meet its new power export 
obligation to Namibia.  Domestically, the Hwange power plant 
continues to struggle with coal supply and the national grid 
is increasingly subject to vandalism. On the positive side, 
heavy rains will allow the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply 
Authority (ZESA) to run the Kariba hydroelectric plant at 
full throttle soon. Nevertheless, the short- and medium-term 
outlook for meeting Zimbabwe's power needs, even in the face 
of ths sharply contracting economy, is gloomy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Erratic Imports Exacerbate Dire State of Power Supply 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) ZESA CEO Benjamin Rafemoyo outlined the dire state 
of the country's electric power supply to econoff on January 
21, 2007, as Zimbabwe struggled to deal with a wave of 
blackouts in the region (Ref A). The blackouts come at a time 
when Zimbabwe is utilizing less than half of its plant 
capacity (itself inadequate to meet demand) and power supply 
from the region is increasingly unreliable (Ref B). Rafemoyo 
reiterated that ESKOM of South Africa no longer supplies 
power to Zimbabwe. SNEL of the DRC is currently exporting 80 
MW to Zimbabwe against a contractual supply agreement of 100 
MW; the shortfall is due to vandalism and transmission 
problems in the DRC. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Rafemoyo admitted that Mozambique's HCB had briefly 
shut down power supply to Zimbabwe at year end, holding ZESA 
to ransom until it made the final agreed payment associated 
with the ownership transfer of HCB.  Anchoring Zimbabwe's 
current power deal with HCB is an agreement under which 
Zimbabwe receives 200 MW for specific mining companies that 
pay ZESA in foreign exchange in return for priority supply; 
HCB will provide Zimbabwe with power above the 200 MW anchor 
only on a short-term basis. (Comment: Contacts in the mining 
industry tell us that even when the mines pay ZESA in foreign 
exchange, the crumbling infrastructure is rendering their 
power supply erratic. End Comment.) Earlier this month, 
vandalism of two pylons carrying electricity cables entirely 
knocked out the power supply from Mozambique and it has yet 
to be restored. Looking north, Rafemoyo optimistically 
maintained that Zambia will begin to export off-peak power to 
Zimbabwe in June 2008 and sign a firm sales agreement in 
¶2009. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Press reports that NamPower had written off 
Zimbabwe's debt to the company for NamPower's ongoing 
refurbishment of Hwange generators were "far from true," 
according to Rafemoyo. In addition, and further reducing 
domestic power supply, the Hwange plant recently began 
exporting 50 MW to Namibia under the refurbishment deal; the 
export obligation will rise to 150 MW over the next five 
years. 
 
HARARE 00000073  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
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And Erratic Domestic Supply, As Well 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) ZESA is working to bring the Hwange thermal power 
plant back on stream after it shutdown on January 19.  On 
January 21, Rafemoyo said the plant was producing 250 MW of 
its 780 MW capacity. However, the state-owned The Herald 
reported on January 24 that a breakdown in coal supply to the 
plant as a result of the power outages had slowed down 
re-activation of the plant, further taxing delivery.  On a 
positive note, benefiting from heavy rainfall in the Zambezi 
River watershed, Rafemoyo said ZESA could soon run the Kariba 
hydroelectric plant at full throttle, increasing its output 
to 750 from 730 MW.  Of the small Harare, Bulawayo and 
Munyati thermal power plants (combined capacity 170 MW), none 
is in operation, although Rafemoyo has received a promise of 
state funding to purchase coal for the plants and bring them 
back on stream by May 2008.  He forecast that production at 
Hwange would reach 780-800 MW by September/October 2008 under 
the NamPower agreement. 
 
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Comment 
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¶6.  (SBU) The short- and medium-term outlook for ZESA meeting 
Zimbabwe's power needs, even in the face of a sharply 
contracting economy, is gloomy, with serious implications for 
the country's economic recovery once the politics come right. 
Even if additional sources of power became available to 
Zimbabwe, the country's deteriorating infrastructure would 
present a serious impediment to a quick turnaround.  End 
Comment. 
MCGEE