VZCZCXRO2861
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #0265 0281402
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 281402Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4480
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 000265 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Hesse Election Damages CDU's Koch; Breakthrough for the 
Left 
 
REF: Frankfurt 0124; Berlin 0022; Frankfurt 0236 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: The Hesse state election ended in a serious blow to the 
ruling CDU and Minister President Roland Koch, whose political 
career is now badly damaged after his divisive election strategy 
backfired.  The election resulted in a virtual tie between the CDU 
and the SPD, with both sides, however, lacking the numbers to form a 
government with their most likely allies -- the FDP for the CDU and 
the Greens for the SPD.  Further complicating the situation, the 
Left Party, which the SPD has until now dismissed as a coalition 
partner, will enter the state parliament after clearing the five 
percent hurdle.  Following a bitter campaign, the process of forming 
a new government will not be easy and may take weeks, possibly 
pulling in national politicians who see Hesse as a critical 
battleground in the lead-up to the 2009 federal election.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------- 
CDU WINS TALLY BUT LOSES GROUND 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  In the January 27 Hesse state election, the Christian Democratic 
Union (CDU) narrowly won the most votes with 36.8% (down 12% from 
the 2003 election), followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) 
with 36.7 (up 7.6%), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 9.4 (up 
1.5%), the Greens with 7.5 (down 2.6%) and the newly-formed Left 
Party with 5.1%.  The outcome for the CDU was its worst in Hesse 
since 1960 and a resounding rejection of Minister President Roland 
Koch's strident campaign against juvenile crime, and particularly 
against offenders with immigrant backgrounds.  Voter participation 
was 64.3%, 0.3% lower than 2003. 
 
¶3.  Although 3,595 votes behind the CDU in the final tally, the SPD 
came from behind in the polls to pull off what lead candidate Andrea 
Ypsilanti called "a mandate from the voters to rule."  According to 
Guenter Hohmann, head of the Hesse Statistics Office, voter turnout 
was high in urban areas, which traditionally vote left, and lower in 
rural areas.  The SPD's success appears to have been due more to 
voter rejection of Koch's campaign strategy than its own ability to 
attract votes, as evidenced by the SPD's poor showing in Lower 
Saxony's same-day election (septel).  The breakthrough into the 
state parliament is a major success for the new Left Party, but 
severely complicates the formation of a government, since no other 
party has declared a willingness to join a coalition with it. 
 
------------------------------------ 
NO CLEAR WAY FORWARD; KOCH IN DANGER 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. The election results make it impossible to form a two-party 
coalition, with the exception of a CDU-SPD "grand coalition." 
Although the CDU is (barely) the overall vote winner, it is hard to 
see how Roland Koch can stay on as Minister President after a 
disastrous campaign in which he burned bridges with opposition 
parties in an all-out gamble to win.  A CDU-SPD government would 
probably only be possible if Koch leaves, either for a federal post 
or the private sector.  The left-leaning politics of Andrea 
Ypsilanti, who has no intention of stepping aside after her success, 
further complicates the situation. 
 
¶5.  The parties have until April 5 to form a viable government, 
during which time the current CDU government will stay in power. 
Unlike at the federal level, there is no formal mechanism for 
forming a state government and the process is left up to open 
negotiations between the parties.  National SPD Party Chairman Kurt 
Beck has already called on the FDP to form an SPD-Green-FDP "Ampel" 
("traffic light") coalition, an offer which the FDP turned down at 
the national level in 2005.  Beck argued that the FDP has an 
obligation to the voters to help form a government, but FDP leader 
Joerg Uwe Hahn repeated last night that he would not consider this 
option.  The SPD and the Greens have also expressed extreme 
reluctance to work with the Left Party, but the possibility exists 
that an SPD-Green government could be formed with the support - but 
not the participation - of the Left Party.  This would have seismic 
national implications, since the SPD has refused to cooperate with 
the Left Party at the federal level. 
 
¶6.  COMMENT:  The results are already seen as a defeat for the CDU 
at the national level, although also as an affirmation of Chancellor 
Merkel's centrist course over Koch's conservatism.  Whatever 
government emerges in Hesse, it has the potential to set a precedent 
that could be replicated in other states and on the national stage 
in 2009 if simple two-party coalitions continue to fail.  The stakes 
are high, and national politicians are likely to play an active role 
as crucial decisions are made.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶7.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
POWELL