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O 111449Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4388
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 000124 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Hesse Election Preview: CDU's Koch Steals the Headlines in 
Close Race 
 
REF: Berlin 0022; Frankfurt 4380 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY. Two weeks before the state elections in Hesse, Roland 
Koch (CDU) has made the controversial issue of   immigrant juvenile 
crime a centerpiece of his campaign.  The move has captured media 
attention and stolen the spotlight from rival parties in an election 
that, along with two others in Germany this winter, will be closely 
watched as portents of what might happen in the 2009 federal 
election.  While Koch has succeeded in putting his opponents off 
balance, his poll numbers still show him in danger of losing the 
absolute majority he now enjoys and in need of a coalition partner. 
His divisive campaign tactics and the possible entry of the Left 
Party into the Hesse state parliament could create a political 
stalemate after the election where few desirable coalition options 
are possible.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Immigrant Juvenile Crime: Unexpected Campaign Issue 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶2.  In a December 27 interview with the "Bild-Zeitung" newspaper, 
Hesse's Minister President Roland Koch (CDU) commented on a 
much-publicized recent attack on a pensioner by two foreign-born 
youths in the Munich subway, calling for tougher punishments for 
immigrant juvenile offenders.  His statements made national 
headlines and have become the key issue in his bid for a third term 
in the January 27 state election.  National CDU politicians such as 
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble 
have rallied in support of Koch's call for tougher sentences, seeing 
a CDU victory in Hesse as essential for the prospects of the 
national party in the national 2009 elections. 
 
¶3.  Wolf-Dieter Adlhoch, Koch's executive assistant, told Pol 
Specialist in December 2007 that the CDU needed to find a key theme 
in its campaign in order to differentiate itself from the Social 
Democratic Party (SPD), saying that the current liberal direction of 
the national CDU is "poisonous for Koch."  Known as a tough 
campaigner and a leading conservative voice in the CDU, Koch had 
previously used the issue of dual citizenship laws to win an upset 
victory in his 1999 campaign, stating famously that "Germany is not 
a nation of immigrants." 
 
¶4.  Both national and local SPD politicians have taken Koch's bait 
and spoken out against the call for tougher sentencing for youth, 
saying that current laws are adequate.  The Hesse SPD had based its 
campaign on the issue of a national minimum wage, with a referendum 
on the issue led by Hesse SPD leader Andrea Ypsilanti, but the issue 
has now been buried by the CDU's more sensationalist theme. 
Important local issues such as education reform and airport 
expansion have also fallen by the wayside as the CDU attempts to 
score points on an issue it sees as its strength: law and order. 
The Hesse SPD even enlisted former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in 
the campaign, who accused Koch of doing little about crime in his 
nine years in office. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Coalition Politics: Few Desirable Options 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. In running a divisive campaign, Koch is banking on either 
retaining his outright majority (which few expect) or forming a 
coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP).  A January 9 
Infratest poll gives the CDU 40%, the SPD 35%, the FDP 9%, the 
Greens 9% and The Left 4%, making the race too close to call.  Both 
the CDU and the SPD have described a Grand Coalition as a 
"worst-case scenario."  A CDU-Green coalition is highly unlikely, 
especially given the long-standing personal antipathy between Roland 
Koch and Green Party Chairman Tarek Al-Wazir, who himself has 
criticized Koch's approach to juvenile crime.  Markus Bocklet, Green 
party state parliament member, however, speculated to Pol Specialist 
that a move by Al-Wazir to a position in the national Green party 
could clear the way for such a coalition.  The CDU's most likely 
coalition partner is the FDP, which has little enthusiasm for Koch's 
law-and-order campaign, but sees the CDU as its only desirable 
option. 
 
¶6.  The Left Party is a major wild card in the election.  In its 
first campaign in Hesse, the party has consistently polled around 
the 5% level required for a party to enter the parliament and has 
taken supporters away from the Greens and the SPD.  The three 
leftist parties (SPD, Greens and The Left Party) could emerge on 
election night with a combined majority but with too many 
differences and animosities to form a coalition.  Willi van Ooyen, 
leading candidate for The Left Party, told Poloff that he is open to 
a coalition but the SPD and the Greens have vociferously ruled out 
such a possibility.  SPD caucus members told Pol Specialist that 
they prefer a coalition with the Greens, but would also consider 
bringing in the FDP if necessary. 
 
FRANKFURT 00000124  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. COMMENT: According to opinion surveys, voters in Hesse think that 
education and social justice are the most important issues.  Roland 
Koch has done relatively little to address these issues in his 
campaign.  He has instead seized on the immigrant juvenile crime 
issue to energize his conservative base in the face of voter fatigue 
with his government after nine years in office.  While stealing the 
headlines, the move has not as yet resulted in a clear surge of 
support, leaving pundits to speculate on his next move.  Some expect 
him to speak out more aggressively against The Left Party, which he 
frequently calls "the communists," playing to voter fears of an 
all-left government.  The success (or lack thereof) of the hard-line 
electoral tactics of the Hesse CDU will be closely watched by the 
more centrist national party level as a possible indicator of voter 
sentiment next year.  END COMMENT 
 
¶8.  This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
POWELL