VZCZCXRO3565
PP RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0169/01 0290650
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 290650Z JAN 08 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0142
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0009
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0030
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0039
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0014

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000169 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
C O R R E C T E D   C O P Y (PARA MARKING CHANGE) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK PRESIDENT RESHUFFLES GOVERNMENT, SAYS 
COUNTRY,S PROBLEMS ARE NOT HIS FAULT 
 
DUSHANBE 00000169  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On January 25 and 26, the Government of 
Tajikistan met to discuss its performance during 2007, and to 
outline its plans for 2008.  President Rahmon presided over 
the session from a flower-adorned stage in one of the 
Presidential Palace,s large halls.  Ministers and regional 
government representatives made presentations from podiums on 
the floor of the hall, and President Rahmon directed 
questions, comments, and criticism at them from the stage. 
At the conclusion of the meeting, Rahmon announced a 
government reshuffling.  President Rahmon used the government 
session to lay blame for the country,s woes at the feet of 
his ministers and other civil servants, and he used the 
reshuffling to perpetuate the illusion that he is committed 
to reform.  End summary. 
 
It,s the Emomali Rahmon Show, Starring... 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) While the intent of the session was ostensibly to 
review the work of the government, President Rahmon used the 
opportunity to reinforce his image as a strong leader 
surrounded by underperforming subordinates.  The televised 
portions of the session showed President Rahmon empathizing 
with the problems of the average Tajik, criticizing energy 
officials for squandering resources, and berating those who 
failed to implement economic reforms.  He used an 
authoritative ) and at times condescending ) tone to bark 
out orders, broadly outlining measures to address the 
difficult situation affecting most Tajiks. 
 
¶3. (SBU) President Rahmon also took the opportunity to dress 
down a major political rival, Mahmadsaid Ubaidulloev, the 
Mayor of Dushanbe.  Rahmon went through a litany of problems 
that he attributed to Ubaidulloev,s administration, accusing 
him of ignoring basic public services.  He said that Dushanbe 
did not look like the capital of a country, adding that he 
felt embarrassed to show off areas outside the city center to 
visitors.  Ubaidulloev was visibly agitated, and he was the 
only official who did not refer to President Rahmon as &your 
respected excellency.8  However, he did not fight back, and 
he said that his administration &would improve.8 
 
Don,t Blame Me ) I,m Just the President 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) While Rahmon heard from representatives of all 
government offices during the two-day session, televised 
portions focused on four areas: economics and finance, 
energy, agriculture, and social issues.  These are the areas 
in which President Rahmon,s government has come under 
increasingly overt criticism recently. 
 
¶5. (U) Rahmon acknowledged the economic hardships facing most 
Tajiks, and he gave the Ministers of Finance, Economy, and 
Industry six months to a year to implement reforms.  He said 
that Tajikistan has received enormous loans and credits, but 
that the financial sector has not been strengthened.  He 
demanded that at least one &free economic zone8 be opened 
in Tajikistan before mid-year.  He questioned why, in 15 
years, government officials have failed to make significant 
economic improvements. 
 
¶6. (U) Rahmon also acknowledged the frustration of most 
Tajiks about the severe energy shortages and the high cost of 
fuel.  He criticized the Ministry of Energy and the power 
companies (mainly state-owned electricity monopoly Barki 
Tojik), ordering them to improve their fee collection 
QTojik), ordering them to improve their fee collection 
mechanisms, renovate existing thermo-electric plants in 
Dushanbe and Yovon, and build smaller hydro-power stations, 
as Gorno-Badakhshan has done.  He berated energy managers, 
adding &I am humiliating myself by begging for energy from 
other countries, and you are just giving it away8 by not 
collecting fees. 
 
Up With Cotton 
-------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Rahmon addressed all of those involved in the cotton 
sector in direct terms.  He said that the government had 
allocated 110 million somoni to address the current cotton 
crisis, but he said that &we will not give 1 diram to 
extinguish cotton debts.8  He directed the Minister of 
Agriculture and Deputy Prime Minister to put on a pair of 
boots, roll up their sleeves, and &get working.8 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00000169  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶8. (U) Rahmon identified corruption as having affected the 
government,s ability to provide social services.  He said 
that $10 million may have been misappropriated by the 
Ministry of Health, and that irregularities had been reported 
regarding agencies involved in determining land use rights. 
He ordered the Prosecutor General and Anti-Corruption Agency 
to look into the allegations. 
 
And Now, the Changes 
-------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) At the end of the session, Rahmon announced a 
government reshuffling.  The changes related directly to the 
problems that Rahmon identified during the government 
session, and they showed that Rahmon is committed to ensuring 
that Kulyobis dominate his administration.  Curiously, the 
most anticipated change did not occur.  While the current 
Prime Minister, Oqil Oqilov, has reached retirement age, the 
President did not replace him. 
 
¶9. (U) The President placed old hands with dubious 
backgrounds into positions that relate directly to the cotton 
sector.  Muradali Alimardon, fired from his position as 
National Bank Chairman, assumed a newly created position, 
Deputy Prime Minister for Agricultural Affairs.  Qosim 
Qosimov, who had been Governor of Sughd Oblast, became 
Minister of Agriculture.  As National Bank Chairman, 
Alimardon was intimately involved in the spiraling cotton 
sector crisis, and he was known as &President Rahmon,s 
personal cashier.8  Qosimov is widely reputed to be a mafia 
kingpin who was loyal to the Kulyobis while governing the 
country,s Northern province.  These two officials will be 
charged with reforming the cotton sector. 
 
¶10. (U) Changes in the finance sector have brought in new 
blood.  The new National Bank Chairman is Sharif Rahimzoda, 
who has a well-established reputation in finance.  He was the 
National Bank,s First Deputy Chairman from 1993-2001, and 
was Tajikistan,s Ambassador to the European Union and NATO 
from 2001-2006.  He was also briefly Chairman of both the 
State Committee on Financial Control and the State Committee 
for Investment and Property.  All 3 National Bank Deputy 
Chairmen were removed and replaced by Jamshed Yusupov (a long 
term employee of the Bank) and Malohat Kholiqzoda, one of 
Rahmon,s senior economic advisors.  The new Chairman of the 
State Committee on Investments, Farrukh Khamroaliev, is a 
well-regarded economist from Rahmon,s office.  Khamroaliev 
participated in an EXBS program in the United States in 1996, 
and his wife worked for USAID until recently. 
 
¶11. (U) The Deputy Prime Minister for Social Affairs, the 
Minister of Health, and the Director of the Agency on Land 
Management were all replaced.  The new Deputy Prime Minister, 
Rukiya Kurbonova, is the former Chairman of Kurgonteppa 
municipality.  The new Minister of Health, Nusratullo 
Salimov, had been the Deputy Minister and is from Kulyob. 
Post has little information about the new Land Management 
Director, Mahnatoir Zokirov. 
 
Comment ) The Good Czar 
----------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Indications are that Rahmon succeeded in using the 
televised government sessions to reinforce his image as a man 
of the people, the "Good Czar" who is frustrated by the 
bungling of his underlings.  He seems to have taken an upper 
hand in his rivalry with Ubaidulloev.  While he may have 
managed to avoid direct blame for many of the country,s 
troubles, we doubt he has diverted popular dissatisfaction 
Qtroubles, we doubt he has diverted popular dissatisfaction 
away from his government. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Comment continued: Despite his lengthy criticisms 
and direct orders, Rahmon really did not outline specific 
plans for reforms.  He presented vague outlines of plans and 
priorities, but there is no reason to believe that he -- or 
anyone else in his government -- has the political will or 
ability to implement significant reforms.  The new &cotton 
team8 does not inspire confidence, and it is unclear where 
the 110 million somonis that Rahmon mentioned came from.  It 
may have been Alimardon's bribe to keep a place in the inner 
circle despite the current cotton debacle.  The changes in 
the finance sector are likely driven by pressure from 
international financial institutions and international 
donors, as Tajikistan continues to seek monetary support. 
End comment. 
 
DUSHANBE 00000169  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
JACOBSON