VZCZCXRO3757
RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0168/01 0290635
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 290635Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0140
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0012
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0028
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0007
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0037
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0019

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000168 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ENRG ECON TI
 
SUBJECT: Tajik Government Flounders as Electricity Threatens to Run 
Out 
 
DUSHANBE 00000168  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Government of Tajikistan has announced that 
the reservoir feeding the Nurek power station, the country's largest 
source of electricity, might run out of water by February 6. 
Extreme low temperatures have reduced inflow, causing the reservoir 
to drop to critical levels.  A Nurek shutdown would lead to a 
nationwide blackout.  Even if this does not occur, severe energy 
shortages are probable for the next two months.  The Government has 
no particular plan to deal with this situation, except to declare a 
"state of emergency" and possibly close more businesses and 
educational institutions.  The government will likely try to keep 
the Tajik Aluminum Company (Talco) running for as long as possible; 
it accounts for 40 percent of Tajik electricity consumption, and is 
the government's main source of income.  The World Bank and UN are 
considering staff draw downs if this situation continues.  End 
summary. 
 
Dire Predictions and Contradictions 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On January 22 the Director of Barki Tojik, the national power 
monopoly, announced that due to the coldest winter in 40 years, the 
water flow in the Vakhsh River had sharply decreased, and because of 
this the water level in the Nurek hydropower reservoir was 
approaching the point at which the power station would cease to 
function.  He estimated that current energy consumption would bring 
the Nurek station to a halt by February 5 or 6.  Without Nurek, 
Tajikistan is largely in the dark, as the few smaller power stations 
currently in operation cannot power much of the country, and 
certainly could not power Talco.  The Director of Barki Tojik said 
the government might then declare a national emergency, with 
unspecified consequences.  There has been talk of closing 
educational institutions and businesses.  However, on January 24 
Deputy Energy Minister Pulot Muhiddinov denied that there would be 
an emergency situation, but warned that there would still be serious 
limitations on power use this winter. 
 
¶3. (U) Some numbers: Nurek Hydropower station's installed capacity 
is 11.2 billion Kilowatt Hours (KWH) annually, or 30 million KWH per 
day on annual average.  This is fully two thirds of Tajikistan's 
total annual power production.  The Tajik Aluminum Company consumes 
18 million KWH per day on average.  This month Tajikistan's 
electricity daily demand is estimated at over 70 million KWH daily; 
total production is much lower, hence the power cuts everywhere. 
The World Bank told embassy on January 28 that Barki Tojik's latest 
figures for Nurek were that the reservoir was 6.5 meters above the 
power cutoff point, with consumption drawing the reservoir down by 
50 centimeters per day.  This suggests that, absent a thaw, the 
power station may operate until February 10.  We note that at this 
time last year the water level was within 10 meters of shutting off 
power production; but the weather was not as cold, allowing 
neighbors Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to supply more power to 
Tajikistan. 
 
Scattershot Response 
-------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) On January 23, 2008 President Rahmon announced the reduction 
of electricity supplies to Talco by 1 million KWH.  Later the same 
day Barki Tojik reported energy supplies to Talco would be reduced 
by 2 million KWH.  The next day the Mayor of Dushanbe ordered the 
disconnection of all industrial enterprises in Dushanbe except the 
Qdisconnection of all industrial enterprises in Dushanbe except the 
Cement Plant and Milk Factory.  Small shops, service centers, public 
bath houses and restaurants, and all Dushanbe markets were ordered 
to disconnect from electrical lines. 
 
¶5. (U) At a partially televised meeting of the government on January 
25-26, President Rahmon complained about the performance of the 
Ministry of Energy, Barki Tojik, and Tajikgaz.  He called for faster 
construction of small hydropower plants, and called for Tajikgaz and 
the Dushanbe city administration to refurbish the Dushanbe and Yovon 
heat and power plants.  He also ordered Talco to provide funding for 
this refurbishment. 
 
International Organizations Worried 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) World Bank resident manager Chiara Bronchi met January 27 
with Minister of Energy Sherali Gul to discuss the current power 
crisis.  She characterized him as "completely in denial."  The 
Minister confirmed the press reports that there are only a few days 
of water left in the Nurek reservoir.  Once the reservoir reaches 
the critical level, the country will be in a blackout.  The 
 
DUSHANBE 00000168  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
record-breaking cold temperatures have resulted in a significantly 
larger than normal amount of the reservoir's water freezing, which 
will delay the thaw needed to run the turbines.  How long this 
blackout will continue is difficult to predict. 
 
¶7. (SBU) According to Ms. Bronchi, the Ministry of Energy has no 
crisis management plan and is "sitting around doing nothing."  She 
noted that Talco uses 40 percent of the country's electricity, but 
due to the nature of aluminum production cannot be shut down 
overnight.  Bronchi asked the Minister specifically about diverting 
more energy from the plant to the population, but the Gul said there 
are no plans to do this. 
 
Just Give Cash 
-------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) When Ms. Bronchi offered to bring in World Bank engineering 
experts to look at the possibility of rehabilitating unused, old 
hydropower facilities, the Minister responded that the only aid the 
Ministry needed was cash.  When she said they'd have to give any 
financial assistance to the Ministry of Finance, not directly to the 
Barki Tojik electrical utility, the Minister said "then we don't 
want it."  Bronchi will meet with Presidential Economic Advisor 
Davlatov today and may raise the issue directly to the President. 
The World Bank is also looking at a staff drawdown; Bronchi is more 
concerned about clean water than electricity because in a complete 
blackout, the water pumps supplying the city and individual homes 
will fail. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The United Nations is also making plans to draw down staff, 
or close up shop altogether.  On January 26 the chief UN 
representative, Michael Jones, called together UN staff to discuss 
evacuation, as the UN does not have the infrastructure to support 
staff living here if there is no power or water.  The UN is looking 
at moving staff to Almaty, and possible departing the country in an 
evacuation convoy to Uzbekistan. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Embassy called Talco, Barki Tojik, and the Ministry of 
Energy directly on January 28, to get their views of the situation. 
Talco contacts were reluctant to speak to us, asking us to contact 
their press department for details on their plans regarding the 
current energy shortage.  The press department didn't return our 
calls.  No one at the Energy Ministry answered the phones either. 
At Barki Tojik, Mr. Salamsho, chief of the international department, 
discounted statements of alarm about the situation, saying that 
strict limitations on electricity use would help to maintain the 
water level in the Nurek reservoir, and he did not expect the Nurek 
power station to close. 
 
¶11. (SBU) As temperatures rise in the Central Asian region, Salamsho 
said, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan would be able to resume some 
electricity supplies to Tajikistan.  (On January 28 media reported 
that Kyrgyzstan had agreed to sell 11 million kilowatt hours of 
electricity to Tajikistan in return for increased Tajik power 
supplies to Kyrgyzstan in summer.)  He believed the situation in 
Tajikistan would "not be pleasant" until the end of March, with 
strict electricity limitations in place, but said Barki Tojik 
definitely would not allow the Nurek station to reach a crisis level 
where it would cease to operate. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Comment: The government's response to the power shortage 
has been to blame the weather, neighboring countries, excessive 
energy use by households and small businesses, and mismanagement by 
government ministries.  The President blames his subordinates, but 
Qgovernment ministries.  The President blames his subordinates, but 
this crisis has been brewing for as long as Rahmon has been 
president.  He has overseen years of little progress on new 
hydropower projects while large resources from Talco and other 
revenue makers, which could have been invested in new power 
infrastructure, instead were wasted on subsidies to a 
non-competitive cotton sector and on palaces and lavish 
entertainments.  Rising temperatures in the next few weeks will 
probably alleviate the worst aspects of this crisis, but if they 
don't rise fast enough, Talco will have no power to operate.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) Post will hold an Emergency Action Committee meeting on 
January 29 to examine our posture and tripwires for further steps if 
the power and water shortage worsens. 
 
JACOBSON