VZCZCXRO6116
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV
DE RUEHDL #0031/02 0181350
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181350Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8843
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 DUBLIN 000031 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: IRSH PRIME MINISTER CONTINUES TO TAKE HEAT FOR ALLEGD 
IRREGULR FINANCES, BUT ISN'T BACKING DOWN 
 
 
¶9.  (U) In a political broadside, Fine Gael leader nda Kenny 
accused Ahern on January 12 of misleadng the Irish people over his 
tax affairs.  He caled on Ahern to resign over his inabilityto 
produce a tax certificate.  Ahern, before embarking on an official 
visit to South Africa, insisted he is fully tax compliant and 
accused Kenny of telling lies.  The opposition parties responded, 
accusing Ahern of avoiding the issue following his refusal to answer 
questions on the matter during his South African visit. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) During the Mahon Tribunal's questioning, Ahern was 
strongly backed by a number of his Government colleagues, including 
Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern, Minister for Health Mary 
Hanafin, and Minister for Enterprise, Trade, and Employment Micheal 
Martin.  Nonetheless, political observers note that some distancing 
from him seems to be occurring within his own party. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Following last May's general election, the opposition 
parties were understandably downbeat.  Many, however, are beginning 
to think that their defeat has a silver lining, considering the 
storm clouds now gathering around the economy.  Fianna Fail has 
aggressively claimed credit for the "Celtic Tiger" economic success 
story over the past ten years.  If the economy falters, opposition 
parties will have potent ammunition for the Irish local elections 
and the European Parliament election, scheduled for June 2009. 
Then, there's the matter of the EU Reform Treaty referendum to be 
held later this year.  A defeat for the Prime Minister's party in 
this vote (not inconceivable according to many local pundits) -- on 
top of the questions surrounding Ahern's finances and taxes -- could 
mortally wound Ahern and hasten his departure from Ireland's 
political stage.  Nonetheless, for the time being, Ahern is showing 
no signs of giving up or of shedding his reputation as the "Teflon 
Taoiseach" who consistently manages to slide out of political 
difficulties.  He recently declared that he will lead Fianna Fail 
into the 2009 elections and appears to be holding a comfortable 
political edge over the opposition. 
 
FOLEY