VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCG #0020/01 0171124
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171124Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1423
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2926
RUEHCG/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS CHENNAI 000020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KIRF IN
SUBJECT:  MODI FLIRTS WITH JAYA, SPECULATION OF BJP-AIADMK ALLIANCE 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  On January 15, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra 
Modi visited Chennai.  Modi's visit, cloaked under heavy security, 
sparked several protests.  His lunch with J Jayalalithaa, leader of 
Tamil Nadu's opposition AIADMK, fueled speculation of an AIADMK-BJP 
alliance in future elections.   Speaking before a selected 
modestly-sized audience celebrating the anniversary of a Tamil 
magazine, Modi focused on economic development while still 
maintaining his tough rhetoric on terrorism and communal issues. 
Modi was dismissive about the U.S. government's denial of his visa. 
Although Modi energized the BJP's small group of staunch supporters 
in Tamil Nadu, the enthusiastic response of his audience is no clear 
indicator of the mood of the Tamil Nadu electorate, which for the 
most part is cool to Modi's aggressive Hindu nationalist message. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
LUNCH DATE WITH JAYALALITHAA:  FLIRTING WITH THE AIADMK 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Modi's first order of business was lunch with AIADMK leader 
J Jayalalithaa.  The lunch dominated the local press, with stories 
lingering on the details of how long they spent together (two 
hours), what was served (forty-five different South Indian dishes), 
and what gifts they exchanged (he gave her a bouquet of flowers; she 
gave him a yellow silk shawl).  The meeting fueled further 
speculation about the possible revival of the BJP-AIADMK alliance. 
Former BJP Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, who accompanied Modi to the 
meeting, spoke to the press about the possibility of an alliance. 
"A right ambience has been created by the meeting.  There are 
commonalities between our parties on a whole range of issues," but 
he reportedly added, "We do not want to rush into things now.  An 
alliance, if any, has to be discussed with the national party 
leadership."  Neither Modi nor Jayalalithaa commented publicly on 
the issue. 
 
PREACHING TO THE CHOIR IN TAMIL NADU 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Invited to celebrate the anniversary of maverick publisher 
Cho S. Ramaswamy's right-of-center Tamil magazine Thuglak, Modi 
spoke at the modesty-sized Kamaraj Auditorium, which seats 
approximately 2,500.  A Consulate staff member was able to attend 
only after contacting Ramaswamy's office because demand was so high 
for the limited seating that people reportedly started lining up at 
around 1:30 p.m. for the 6:30 p.m. event.  Police contacts reported 
that more than 1000 people were turned away and watched the 
proceedings on a large outdoor screen. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Ramaswamy set the tone for the evening by mocking Sonia 
Gandhi's reference to Modi as a "merchant of death" by calling Modi 
the "merchant of death ... to corruption, and to terrorism."  With 
the audience primed by Ramaswamy's fiery introduction, Modi took the 
stage to thunderous applause.  Modi focused first on development 
saying that it could only be achieved "when it was converted into a 
mass movement," citing Gandhi's efforts to engage all Indians in the 
independence movement.  While referencing Gandhi along with Sardar 
Patel, another icon of India's independence movement, Modi notably 
failed to mention ny of the BJP's national leadership by name. 
Modi also did not run away from the harder-edged Hindu nationalist 
sentiment with which he is associated.  He told the assembled crowd 
"if fighting terrorism is a crime, I am ready to pay the price for 
it," and asked whether "speaking against terrorism is communal?" 
Modi said the meaning of the term secularism had changed over time 
and that "today it means hate Hindus." 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Modi and Ramaswamy also discussed the U.S. government's 
decision to deny a visa to Modi.  When an audience member asked 
about the issue Ramaswamy said "the loss is not Modi's, but the 
shame is of the U.S."  He said the denial was the result of a 
rampant media campaign against Modi in the wake of the events of 
¶2002.  Modi himself later referred to the vsa issue, saying "When 
the U.S. denied me a visaI said I will create America in my state 
and then they will come visit me." 
 
SECURIT TIGHT A MODI'S MUSCULAR 
POLITICS MAKES HIM A TARGET IN TAMIL NADU 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Modi visited Tamil Nadu's capital on January 15, the eve 
of the four-day Tamil new year celebration known as Pongal.  With 
Modi's brand of muscular BJP politics seen as out of the amil Nadu 
mainstream, security was exceptionallytight for the visit.  A 
senior officer in the poice intelligence service told us that due 
to thenature of the threats against Modi in Tamil Nadu h receives 
the same security coverage afforded thePrime Minister.  (NOTE:  BJP 
President L K Advan was the target of a failed assassination 
attempt in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu in 1998.  END NOTE.)  The police 
blocked major thoroughfares in downtown Chennai in advance of Modi's 
movements, severely restricted access to the areas where Modi 
visited, and engaged in aggressive preemptive detentions to ensure 
Modi's safety.  Despite the preventive arrests and the fact that no 
permits were granted for planned protests, approximately one 
thousand people from a variety of interest groups -- Muslim, 
Christian, and Dalits for example -- protested against Modi's visit. 
 The heavy security footprint also irked some average Chennaites: 
newspapers reported prominently on traffic disruptions and we 
overheard complaints at a local market about the inconveniences 
caused by Modi's security precautions. 
 
MODI NOT ESPECIALLY POPULAR IN TAMIL NADU 
BUT ANOTHER SIGN OF A FUTURE BJP-AIADMK ALLIANCE 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT:  One national daily described Modi's visit to 
Chennai as "a hit."  The view from the South is a bit different. 
That he was enthusiastically received by the audience at Kamaraj 
Auditorium was to be expected:  a self-selected group of readers of 
Ramaswamy's right-of-center journal was bound to be made up of many 
supporters of the charismatic BJP leader.  But the size of the venue 
speaks volumes about Modi's relative popularity in the south.  While 
he speaks before crowds of hundreds of thousands in Gujarat, he 
spoke to just a few thousand in Chennai.  (In comparison, Chief 
Minister Karunanidhi drew more than 100,000 for the celebration 
marking his fifty years as a legislator.)  Modi can energize the 
BJP's small group of hard-core supporters in Tamil Nadu (as he did 
on this visit), but because he is seen as far out of the South 
Indian political mainstream, Modi is probably a net political 
liability for the Tamil Nadu BJP and its potential partners. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED:  Nonetheless, Modi's meeting with 
Jayalalithaa is another step in the continuing courtship between the 
AIADMK and the BJP.  Modi and Jayalalithaa are known to have a warm 
personal relationship, which likely propelled the headstrong 
opposition leader to host the lunch despite the potential political 
problems of meeting the controversial BJP leader.  It is not 
surprising that the meeting did not result in a formal announcement 
of the alliance.  Jayalalithaa has made clear before that she will 
not decide on alliance partners until much closer to the national 
election.  But our contacts said that by hosting the controversial 
Modi for lunch Jayalalithaa "sent a clear signal" that "things are 
moving in the direction" of an alliance.  If the likelihood of a 
BJP-AIADMK alliance is growing, the effect of such an alliance 
remains unclear.  A moderate Muslim leader told us that the AIADMK 
would have "no chance" in Tamil Nadu if it joined up with BJP.  A 
media contact was more measured, saying that AIADMK and BJP alone 
might not beat the DMK-Congress partnership.  We agree that the 
AIADMK-BJP pairing would probably run close to the DMK-Congress 
alliance, leaving Tamil Nadu's growing number of second-tier 
political parties -- the PMK AND DMDK in particular -- holding the 
key to victory.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶9.  (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy New Delhi. 
 
HOPPER