VZCZCXRO7258
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0079/01 0211532
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211532Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2085
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000079 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN VOTER TURNOUT FOR PRESIDENTIAL FIRST ROUND 
SURPRISINGLY HIGH 
 
REF:  BELGRADE 78 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Radical Party candidate Tomislav Nikolic's predictable first 
place showing in the first round of Serbia's presidential elections, 
left incumbent President Boris Tadic with less than a five-point gap 
to fill by the February 3 second round.  To win, Tadic needs to kick 
his sluggish campaign into overdrive, going after the votes of the 
also-rans and didn't-votes.  The elections also strengthened the 
hand of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica.  Kostunica's first-round 
candidate landed in third place, pulling 7.6% of the vote.  Tadic 
will likely give Kostunica whatever he asks/exacts for his support 
and Kostunica will ultimately oblige.  End Summary. 
 
Tadic Trails by Less than Five Points 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Late evening on January 20, the Serbian Electoral 
Commission (the RIK) preliminarily called the first round of 
Serbia's presidential elections for Nikolic with 39.6% of all votes 
cast.  With about 80% of the votes processed the RIK gave Nikolic 
1,235,327 votes, leading Democratic Party candidate incumbent 
President Boris Tadic's 1,106,976 votes, a 35.5% share.  The race 
for third ended with New Serbia's (NS) Velimir Ilic taking the spot 
with 7.5% or 232,715 votes, Socialist (SPS) Milutin Mrkonjic at 6% 
with 186,097 votes, and Liberal Democrat (LDP) Cedomir (Ceda) 
Jovanovic with 5.4%, 168,234 votes.  Hungarian Istvan Pasztor won 
2.6%, or some 80,564 votes.  Final projections of the Center for 
Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) anticipate Nikolic taking a 
total 1,610,000, Tadic 1,450,000, and Ilic 310,000.  The RIK 
declared 1.88% of the ballots invalid. 
 
Highs and Lows 
-------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The biggest surprise of the first round was the unexpectedly 
high 61% turnout, the highest since 2000.  In multi-ethnic, 
multi-confessional Vojvodina 63% of eligible voters turned out to 
vote.  In Kosovo, 49.9% of the electorate voted.  Nikolic pulled 39% 
in all regions of Serbia, and won 56.5% of the Kosovo ballots cast. 
Tadic beat Nikolic in Belgrade, taking 40.2%, and in the 
predominantly ethnic Muslim Sandzak region. 
 
Doing the Math 
-------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Fifth-placed Ceda Jovanovic endorsed Tadic just as CeSID 
announced its final projections, late on January 20.  Pasztor threw 
his support to Tadic on January 21.  With LDP, Hungarian, and DS 
votes, Tadic approaches round two with 43% of the vote.  While SPS 
leadership has said they will not endorse a candidate in the second 
round, most of Mrkonjic's supporters are likely to vote Radical, 
giving Nikolic 45.4% in round two. 
 
Kostunica: King-Maker 
--------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Velimir Ilic announced to the press that he would decide 
whom to endorse in the February 3 election toward the end of 
January.  In reality, Prime Minister Kostunica, rather than Ilic, 
likely controls the majority of the votes, having lent Ilic the 
support of his party the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS).  So far, 
Kostunica has remained silent on the question of his support in the 
run-off.  In a conversation on January 19, Parliament Speaker Oliver 
Dulic (DS) told the Ambassador that he expected Kostunica ultimately 
and "with a pained face" to support Tadic. 
 
Other Unknowns 
-------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Other unknown, but possible sources of support for Tadic 
could come from the 39% of the population who did not turn out for 
the first round, much of which was centered in South Serbia. 
According to press reports, voter turnout in the predominantly 
ethnic Albanian towns of Bujanovac and Presevo was less than 10%. 
Though Albanian leaders did not call on Albanians to boycott the 
vote, as they have attempted in prior national elections, clearly 
Albanian voters were not encouraged to vote.  Albanian voting apathy 
centers around perceptions that the Tadic administration has not 
lived up to its promises to develop South Serbia.  LDP's Jovanovic 
had a strong showing among ethnic Albanians in the South who would 
under no circumstances vote for Radicals.  In addition to South 
Serbia, general voter apathy keeps them away from the polls. 
Whereas Radicals do a better job of getting their people to the 
polls, pro-Western voters tend to be more apathetic and disappointed 
in Tadic.  He will have to work hard to convince people he can make 
a difference. 
 
Comment 
 
BELGRADE 00000079  002 OF 002 
 
 
------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Tadic has a fighting chance to win the February 3 run-off. 
 The high voter turnout and strong Radical showing in the first 
round signal the electorate's interest in the presidential choice 
and, perhaps, their eagerness for change.  To broaden his base and 
to get more voters to the polls, Tadic will have to do better to 
have to convince more voters to go to the polls to vote for a future 
within Europe.  In fact that is the message of the campaign posters 
going up today: "Together We will Conquer Europe."  He will also 
have to get the DSS/NS endorsement.  While previous polling 
suggested that a large share of DSS voters would come out for Tadic, 
even if asked to stay home, Tadic will still need Kostunica's 
endorsement.  Kostunica is likely to give Tadic his grudging, not 
resounding endorsement, for a price -- continued reliance on 
Kostunica's disproportionate influence in Serbian politics.  End 
Comment. 
 
Munter