VZCZCXRO7196
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0078/01 0211044
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211044Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2083
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000078 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN VOTERS HEAD TO POLLS IN FORCE 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) In a country where the number of conspiracy theories 
exceeds the population, the assumption is that Saint John (whom 
Orthodox Serbs celebrate today) and the Democratic Party conspired 
to ensure the fine weather that brought voters to the polls in 
record numbers for Serbia's first round of presidential elections. 
While there is near universal expectation that voters will choose 
Radical Party candidate Tomislav Nikolic and Democratic Party's 
incumbent President Boris Tadic, from among a field of nine, to face 
one another in the February 3 run-off, the race for third place 
continues.  The Liberal Democratic Party leader Cedomir (Ceda) 
Jovanovic ran a campaign that seemed to connect more with an 
apathetic populace than Tadic's message, and may have an edge.  More 
important, he may just help win the reelection for the President, 
having privately promised to endorse Tadic after the polls close and 
the vote is counted.  Looking down the road, the Liberal Democrats 
and the Socialists both hope for a good showing nationwide to 
position themselves well for May municipal and regional elections. 
An alliance between Ceda and Tadic could herald serious commitment 
to a reformist agenda in Serbia.  End Summary. 
 
Great Weather, Great Turnout 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Serbia's electorate headed to the polls early on January 20 
to cast votes in the first round of presidential elections.  Warm, 
dry weather and the holiday atmosphere of Serbia's St. John's Day 
festivities, may have been responsible for the steady stream of 
voters that emboffs reported around the country.  Countrywide, the 
turnout averaged five percent an hour, and some observers anticipate 
more than 60% will vote before the polls close -- significantly more 
than expected.  Some analysts suggest that voters might simply be 
voting earlier than is custom, in order to attend tonight's holiday 
parties, but at 1800 local, an ODIHR observer told emboff of 30- to 
50-foot waiting lines to vote in Prokuplje and other central Serbia 
towns, with more voters arriving.  In Nis, around 2000 local, 
emboffs saw voters racing to the door of one voting place, to ensure 
a place in line just before the doors closed. 
 
¶3.  (U) In any event, we saw steady streams of voters in and around 
Belgrade and other parts of the country.  In the ethnically-mixed 
Belgrade community of Zvezdera, on the outskirts of the capital, the 
good turnout included voters of all demographics, crossing age and 
ethnic lines to include Serbs and Roma.  In the town of Pirot, near 
the Bulgarian border, some observers told emboffs of 50% turnout by 
1000 local, with young democratic voters, especially, heading to the 
polls.  In Novi Pazar, where politics divide the Islamic community, 
Mayor Uglanin endorsed New Serbia candidate Ilic, although anecdotal 
reporting by emboffs and contacts on the ground suggested that LDP's 
Ceda might run second to Tadic.  Only in southern Serbia, does the 
turnout appear to have been light, with some speculating a final 
return of about 15% or less for the region.  Emboffs report, 
however, no stories of intimidation or threats of retaliation for 
Albanians casting votes.  Bujanovac and Presevo majors voted and, 
for the first time, ethnic Albanians represented nationwide parties 
as poll watchers.  An unrelated effort to register citizens to 
participate in a program to distribute shares of state-held 
companies may have increased the turnout of Roma and others in south 
Serbia who, we heard, mistakenly believed that they had to vote to 
collect their shares.  No one suggested that any individuals or 
parties had intentionally misled these voters. 
 
¶4.  (U) Party observers and poll watchers around the country told 
poloffs that the voting was, in general, remarkably clean.  With 
three hours until the polls close, the Center for Free Elections and 
Democracy (CeSid) announced in a press conference that their 
observers deployed throughout Serbia had reported no irregularities 
that would make a difference in the outcome of the election.  CeSid 
said that in one polling station, authorities failed for a while to 
spray the fingers of voters with invisible ink to prevent them from 
voting more than once.  Emboffs reported that some party field 
observers and New Serbia headquarters staff spoke of the failure of 
voting stations to check voter identification, but that this seemed 
to occur more often in the countryside where poll watchers 
personally knew the voters.  The press reported one death by natural 
causes of a Radical Party voter, just prior to the opening of polls. 
 Emboffs in Sandzak reported unconfirmed stories of some voters 
being moved from voting station to voting station, voting from 
private homes and coffee houses and accusations that Radical Party 
members had intimidated known voters of other parties. 
 
Radical, Democratic Party Successes 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) At Radical Party headquarters in Belgrade, SRS Deputy 
Alexander Vucic told emboffs that Nikolic would win the day.  Vucic 
said turnout was better than he had anticipated.  He was proud that 
the Radicals had run such a clean campaign, and said he had learned 
a lot from the Americans -- Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton, that 
is.  Remarking on the candidates' style, Vucic said Obama was his 
 
BELGRADE 00000078  002 OF 002 
 
 
favorite campaigner. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In Belgrade, DS Member of Parliament Konstantinovic told 
emboffs he also was pleased with the better-than-expected turnout, 
which he expected favored Tadic.  In 2004, Nikolic beat Tadic in 
Novi Sad by 1.5%, and DS leaders in Vojvodina told emboffs they 
hoped to narrow or eliminate the gap, this time.  In Novi Sad DS 
headquarters, phone bank staffers reminded party members to vote. 
Others drove disabled voters to the voting stations. DS officials in 
Nis told emboff they were strongly encouraged by the large youth 
turnout. 
 
 
Socialist and Liberals Position Parties for Local Elections 
---------------------- ----------------- ------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) On January 18, Social party leader Ivica Dacic and 
candidate Mrkonjic told poloff that they believed they had a good 
chance of pulling 7-8% of the vote on election day.  Dacic said that 
his constituency was divided and that he would endorse neither 
Nikolic nor Tadic in the second round.  His party's goal, Dacic 
said, was to build party strength in advance of the May local 
elections. LDP's Ceda Jovanovic told the Ambassador and DCM a 
similar story, on January 18, although he set his sights on a 10% 
share of the vote for president. 
 
¶8.  (U) Ceda ran a race that many western-oriented voters said 
connected significantly better than Tadic's campaign.  His party's 
election day activity appeared targeted and effective.  In 
Vojvodina, 1,500 party members and volunteers worked at 170 voting 
stations.  LDP headquarters in Belgrade bustled with energetic party 
members staffing a bank of 30 computers and phones, ensuring that 
LDP voters got to the polls. 
 
LDP to Lend Support to the DS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Ceda may save the race for Tadic.  The highly motivated 
SRS electorate will almost certainly lead Nikolic to first place in 
the first round.  It is equally certain that Tadic will follow in 
second, although there is significant speculation about the size of 
the gap between the two.  On January 18 Ceda told the Ambassador 
that he would throw his support to Tadic on January 20, immediately 
following the end of voting.  Tadic ran a dismal campaign, Ceda 
said, and needed LDP help to prevent a Radical victory.  The 
strength of this endorsement will depend on how Ceda places at the 
end of the vote count.  Ceda told the Ambassador he was 
hoping/expecting to walk away with 10% of the returns.  Our field 
observers suggested he was doing well, especially in Novi Pazar, 
Novi Sad, and Belgrade.  Ceda's support will not only help Tadic 
edge out the Radical Nikolic, it will also will significantly 
diminish Tadic's dependence on Prime Minister Kostunica's 
endorsement.  CeSid speculates that more than one half of the PM's 
Democratic Party of Serbia's voters will cast ballots for Tadic in 
the run-off, even if Kostunica tells them to stay home. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Serbia's voters came out in force to exercise their 
democratic right to choose their leader.  It remains to the run-off 
to be seen whether they will choose a candidate that will lead them 
forward or into isolation. The good news is that the electorate was 
highly motivated today.  If Tadic is able to run an energetic 
campaign in the second round, he may just be able to win.  End 
Comment. 
 
MUNTER