VZCZCXRO5659
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0070/01 0180605
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 180605Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2067
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000070 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV PHUM KV SR
 
SUBJECT: SERBIA: UNHCR REFINES CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR POPULATION 
MOVEMENTS 
 
REF: 08 BELGRADE 0061 
 
 08 BELGRADE 0021 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees 
(UNHCR) in Belgrade continues contingency planning and preparations 
for possible population displacements from Kosovo into Serbia, in 
consultation with Serbian Government, NGOs, and donors.  UNHCR 
officials told emboff that, while the government has not openly 
shared its action or contingency planning, it has assured UNHCR that 
preparations are underway.  The government did, however, assure 
UNHCR that it would not restrict the movement of displaced persons 
to or through Southern Serbia.  End Summary. 
 
UNHCR: Hands-on and On-Hand Experience 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On January 11, refcoord met with John Young, UNHCR Senior 
Protection Officer to discuss continuing contingency preparation for 
population movements out of Kosovo that might result from status 
decisions -- in particular, a declaration of Kosovo independence. 
Young said that, in line with planned reinforcement of field 
operations, UNHCR headquarters would send Senior Emergency Officer 
Andrej Kazakov to Belgrade January 20 for an initial three-week 
period and an option of remaining on the ground as long as the 
situation merited.  Kazakov will assist in all aspects of emergency 
preparations, including leading a UNHCR-led full-day refresher 
training course for UNHCR's contingency-planning implementing 
partners, later this month.  Kazakov's substantial humanitarian 
emergency experience derives from his UNHCR service in Sarajevo and 
Belgrade, throughtout most of the 90's.  According to Young, he is 
well respected by the Government of Serbia (GOS) for his work during 
the 1999 conflict. 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM KOSOVO 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Young also told refcord that UNHCR had increased its field 
monitoring across Serbia and was encouraged there had been no 
significant departures from Kosovo in recent weeks.  To date, there 
have been only 28 arrivals since mid November, mostly resulting from 
health, or extraordinary family circumstances.  All have requested 
IDP status.  UNHCR will continue to keep a close watch on movements 
in the coming weeks. 
 
KOSOVO MINISTRY WILL NOT RESTRICT POPULATION MOVEMENT 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Young told refcoord that the Ministry for Kosovo had no 
plans to restrict movement to the areas near the Kosovo 
administrative boundary.  According to Young, Assistant Minister for 
Kosovo Vuko Anjonijevic (DSS) told UNHCR Belgrade Representative 
Lennart Kotsalainen and Young in a January 11 meeting that Serbia's 
primary goal was to discourage movements out of Kosovo, but, 
contrary to what State Secretary for the Ministry of Kosovo Dusan 
Prorokovic had suggested to UNHCR in earlier meetings, the Ministry 
had no plans to restrict movement to Southern Serbia.  On the 
contrary, Anjonijevic told UNHCR officials that they would not 
repeat the mistakes of 1999, in which they had severely restricted 
and directed the movement of Kosovars crossing the border into 
Serbia.  Anjonijevic added, however, that Serbia expected 
international forces to protect ethnic minorities and prevent 
violence in Kosovo.  If all else fails however, he told UNHCR reps 
that Serbia would be obliged to protect its population. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Young said that Antonijevic anticipated only up to 10% of 
the minority population in Kosovo would move in case of UDI by 
Kosovo authorities.  Antonijevic told UNHCR, the Ministry for Kosovo 
would continue to pay salaries to Kosovo Serbs and, in general, 
would strengthen the footprint of the Serbian state in Kosovo, as it 
had done in Gracanica and North Mitrovica. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Antonijevic reiterated to UNHCR reps that the Ministry for 
Kosovo would coordinate all inter-ministerial action plans in case 
of population displacements into Serbia. 
 
WHICH MINISTRY WILL LEAD? 
------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Bojan Adjelkovic (DS), Assistant Minister for Labor and 
Social Policy told refcoord on January 15 the ministerial action 
plans in case of Kosovo declaration of independence are confidential 
documents.  He said only Minister for Labor and Social Policy Rasim 
Ljajic (SDS) had access to his ministry's plan. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Though Andjelkovic told refcoord he believed there would 
be no major population displacements from Kosovo he emphasized that 
the Ministry, with its network of municipal level social welfare 
 
BELGRADE 00000070  002 OF 002 
 
 
offices, would have timely  information on any movements and would 
be in the ideal position to provide assistance in case of mass 
displacements.  He added that Minister Ljajic, as President of the 
Coordinating Body for Southern Serbia (which includes Presevo, 
Bujanovac, and Medvedja municipalities),  would have a lead 
coordinating role in an emergency, as he felt the majority of 
individuals who would leave would cross into Southern Serbia, 
particularly Bujanovac.  (This matches UNHCR projections of 
potential population flows.) 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Andjelkovic did not comment on the role that the Serbian 
Commissariat for Refugees might have.  He told refcoord that the 
Ministry for Kosovo would limit its focus to Kosovo proper, in case 
of an emergency, and that the Ministry of Labor would manage all 
else.  He reminded refcoord the most important goal of the GOS was 
to encourage people in Kosovo to remain where they are.  "They know 
there will be limited resources for them in Serbia if they leave 
their property in Kosovo," Andjelkovic said. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) In a January 11 email to the refcoord regarding 
ministerial roles and responsibilities in case of population 
movements, Kotsalainen wrote: "While Prorokovic clearly said that 
CCK [sic] is in-charge in terms of planning and coordination which 
also was confirmed by Antonijevic, Dabetic said that IDPs was his 
'mandate' although he has not been proactive in terms of contingency 
planning.  There seems to be some internal confusion here.  The less 
than clear role of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy in terms 
of IDPs adds to the confusion." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) While the lack of coordination and inter-agency planning 
is a cause for some concern, the fact that government entities are 
planning for and talking with humanitarian assistance agencies about 
possible population flows is encouraging.  We emphasize that 
government, international agencies, and observers (including within 
the embassy and diplomatic communities) remain optimistic that, 
barring violence, movements of people from Kosovo in the coming 
months will be minor.  We will remain in close contact with UNHCR 
and continue engage our contacts in key ministries in a constructive 
dialogue about their responsibilities to any new displacements.  End 
Comment. 
 
MUNTER