VZCZCXRO4970
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0022/01 0041735
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041735Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2016
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000022 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SR
SUBJECT:  CANDIDATES FOR SERBIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: 07 BELGRADE 1617 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Nine candidates submitted and met the requirements to run in 
Serbia's presidential elections, scheduled for January 20.  The nine 
candidates include Radical Party deputy Tomas Nikolic; Serbia's 
President, Boris Tadic of the Democratic Party; Liberal Democratic 
Party head Cedomir Jovanovic; New Serbia party president Velimir 
Ilic; and five candidates from smaller parties.  Tadic and Nikolic 
are the real frontrunners, but Jovanovic and Ilic will draw enough 
votes from both to guarantee a second round, in which Tadic still if 
likely to win.  End Summary. 
 
Final List of Candidates 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) The Election Commission finalized the list of candidates on 
January 4 for the presidential elections scheduled for January 20. 
The nine candidates are Tomislav Nikolic (Serbian Radical Party), 
Boris Tadic (Democratic Party), Cedomir Jovanovic (Liberal 
Democratic Party), Velimir Ilic (New Serbia), Milutin Mrkonjic 
(Socialist Party of Serbia), Milanka Karic (Serbian Strength 
Movement), Istvan Pastor (Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians), 
Jugoslav Dobricanin (Reformist Party), and Marijan Risticevic 
(People's Peasant Party).  The frontrunners are Nikolic and Tadic. 
Observers also expect Jovanovic and Ilic to draw a significant 
number of votes. Below are biographies and expected campaign 
strategies of the four leading candidates. 
 
Boris Tadic (Democratic Party) 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Boris Tadic is the head of the Democratic Party (DS) and 
the current President of Serbia.  Tadic was born in 1958 in 
Sarajevo.  Tadic worked as a journalist, clinical psychologist, 
psychology teacher, and researcher before becoming engaged in 
politics full-time.  In 1990, he joined the Democratic Party (DS). 
Prior to winning the presidential election in 2004, Tadic served as 
a Member of Parliament, Minister of Telecommunications, and Minister 
of Defense.  Srdjan Milivojevic, Member of Parliament and a member 
of DS's campaign committee, told poloff on December 20, 2007 that 
Kosovo and fulfilling obligations to The Hague would still be 
important themes in the campaign.  DS intended to run a "clean" 
campaign, according to Milivojevic.  In the same meeting, DS member 
Gordana Comic, Chair of Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, said 
there would be "no new themes" in the campaign, but Tadic would run 
on his proven track record.  Tadic would attract voters based on the 
party's continuous efforts to connect with the people and improve 
their quality of life.  She assured poloff, however, that the DS 
would focus on a get out the vote campaign. 
 
Tomislav Nikolic (Serbian Radical Party) 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Tomislav Nikolic is the deputy head of the Serbian Radical 
Party (SRS), which he co-founded with party leader, and Hague War 
Crimes Tribunal defendant Vojislav Seselj in 1991.  He has led the 
party since Seselj surrendered to the Hague in 2003.  Nikolic was 
born in 1952 in Kragujevac, and studied civil engineering before 
beginning his career in construction.  In 1992, 1998, and 2000, 
Nikolic was elected a Member of Parliament.  In March 1998, Nikolic 
became Deputy Prime Minister of Serbia.  In the 2000 presidential 
elections, Nikolic ran as the SRS candidate and placed third after 
Vojislav Kostunica and Milosevic.  On December 24, 2007, Nikolic 
launched his current presidential campaign in his hometown, 
attracting about 6,000 supporters, mostly older, working class men. 
Nikolic's major campaign messages are anti-DS, anti-Western, and 
pro-Russian.  At the rally, he accused the current government of 
selling off the state and argued for change of government. 
 
Cedomir Jovanovic (Liberal Democratic Party) 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Cedomir (Ceda) Jovanovic, head of the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP), was born in 1971 in Belgrade.  As one of the founders 
of the Democratic Opposition of Serbia, he was instrumental in 
bringing down Milosevic.  Originally a member of DS, Jovanovic won a 
seat in the 2000 parliamentary elections.  Jovanovic became Deputy 
Prime Minister in March 2003 after Prime Minister Djindjic's 
assassination.  Jovanovic and his supporters split from the DS in 
2005 to start LDP, which won 15 seats in the January 2007 elections. 
 Vukosava Crnjanski, LDP's International Secretary, told poloff on 
December 21, 2007 that LDP's campaign, with the slogan "Life Rules," 
would focus on youth and minorities.  In addition to LDP's 
traditional pro-western, pro-Kosovo independence platform, LDP's 
main campaign theme would be to differentiate itself from Tadic, 
whom the LDP views as a willing partner in the Kostunica government, 
Crnjanski said.  LDP would have difficulty supporting Tadic in the 
election's second round, since Tadic had failed to live up to his 
promises from when he was first elected president, she said. 
 
BELGRADE 00000022  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Jovanovic chose to start his campaign on an odd noted, 
using a fake U.S. Embassy "memo" to accuse a local tycoon of trying 
to sell Kosovo for a visa (reftel).  This issue now is in Serbian 
courts, but appears to have bought Jovanovic the publicity he sought 
to pit himself against the "forces of corruption." 
 
Velimir Ilic (New Serbia) 
------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Velimir Ilic is current Infrastructure Minister and leader 
of the New Serbia party, which is in coalition with the Democratic 
Party of Serbia (DSS).  Born in 1951, in Cacak, central Serbia, Ilic 
started his career in construction, later establishing his own 
company.  In 1990 he joined Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement 
(SPO).  He formed the New Serbia party in 1998 after being expelled 
from the SPO.  He was elected to the Serbian Parliament in 1993 and 
the Federal Parliament of Serbia and Montenegro in 2000.  He was 
elected mayor of Cacak in 1996, reelected in 2000, and in 2003 won a 
seat in Parliament.  He was appointed Minister of Capital 
Investments in 2004 and Minister of Infrastructure in May, 2007, a 
position he currently holds.  As its coalition partner, the DSS 
announced on January 3 that it would support Ilic's candidacy.  DSS 
Vice President Aleksandar Popovic told Charge on January 4, that his 
party was supporting Ilic "for the time being," leaving open the 
possibility that DSS could support Tadic in a second round. 
 
And the Rest 
------------ 
 
¶8.  (U) The five remaining candidates represent smaller parties, 
which are often regional or issue specific in their focus. 
Political observers expect them to garner few votes in the first 
round and to have little impact on the campaign.  Milutin Mrkonjic 
is deputy of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Milosevic's former 
party.  Born in 1942 and educated as a civil engineer, he currently 
serves as one of three Deputy Speakers of the Parliament.  Milanka 
Karic is a member of the Serbian Strength Movement.  She is the wife 
of party founder and telecommunications tycoon Bogoljub Karic, who 
came in third in the 2004 presidential elections.  Her husband is 
living in self-imposed exile while under indictment for corruption. 
The party has no seats in Parliament.  Istvan Pastor is the head of 
the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians and Secretary for Privatization 
in the regional government of Vojvodina.  Jugoslav Dobricanin is 
Vice President of the Reformist Party, based in Nis.  The Reformist 
Party finished last in the 2007 parliamentary elections with only 
1,881 votes nationwide.  Dobricanin, born in 1956 near Kursumlija, 
is a military historian.  Marjan Risticevic is President of the 
People's Peasant Party and ran as its presidential candidate in 
¶2004.  He was born in 1958. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Despite a crowded field of candidates, the real 
competition will be between Nikolic and Tadic, with both Ilic and 
Jovanovic pulling enough votes to guarantee that a second round of 
voting will occur on February 3.  Although Tadic will likely win in 
a second round, the first round will be tight.  DSS's support of 
Ilic in the first round complicates Tadic's prospects, further 
fracturing the coalition government.  DSS's support for Tadic in the 
second round will be critical.  End Comment. 
 
BRUSH