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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 ASHGABAT 000009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, H (RADEMACHER AND DIGGS) 
PLEASE PASS TO SENATOR RICHARD LUGAR'S STAFF 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EPET SCUL OREP TX
SUBJECT:  SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT TO TURKMENISTAN OF 
SENATOR RICHARD LUGAR, JANUARY 11-13 
 
ASHGABAT 00000009  001.2 OF 006 
 
 
¶1.  Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes the 
visit to Turkmenistan of Senator Richard G. Lugar, Ranking 
Member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  Your visit will 
advance our bilateral dialogue on energy issues, while 
reinforcing the progress made by the United States since 
December 2006 in "turning a new page" in its overall 
relationship with Turkmenistan.  Although the new president, 
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, is making significant changes in 
some sectors, it is important to realize the country is at 
the very beginning of a new era.  The wreck of a country left 
behind by the now-deceased President-for-Life Niyazov, 
combined with 70 years of colonial Soviet rule, compounded by 
nomadic/tribal customs that lacked a modern nation-state 
concept, create the need for a new model.  Turkmenistan was 
never North Korea, but it is not yet Denmark, and probably 
never will be.  Although the foreign minister told a senior 
U.S. official in October Turkmenistan would "follow its own 
path,", we believe patient but persistent nudges by the 
international community will move the country closer to 
international standards and practices.  END SUMMARY. 
 
TURKMENISTAN POST-NIYAZOV 
 
¶3.  (SBU) A hydrocarbon-rich state that shares borders with 
Afghanistan and Iran, Turkmenistan has been undergoing an 
historic political transition.  The unexpected death of 
President Niyazov on December 21, 2006, ended the 
authoritarian, one-man dictatorship that by the end of his 
life had made Turkmenistan's government among the most 
repressive in the world.  The peaceful transfer of power 
following Niyazov's death confounded many who had predicted 
instability because the former president had no succession 
plan.  President Berdimuhamedov quickly assumed power 
following Niyazov's death with the assistance of the "power 
ministries" -- including the Ministries of National Security 
and Defense, and the Presidential Guard.  His position was 
subsequently confirmed through a public election in which the 
population eagerly participated, even though it did not meet 
international standards. 
 
NIYAZOV'S LEGACY 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov inherited a country that former 
President Niyazov had come close to running into the ground. 
Niyazov siphoned off much of Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon 
proceeds into non-transparent slush funds used, in part, to 
finance his massive construction program in Ashgabat at the 
expense of the country's education and health-care systems. 
Politically, his increasing paranoia -- particularly after 
the 2002 armed attack on his motorcade -- led to high-speed 
revolving-door personnel changes at the provincial and 
national level, and an obsessive inclination to micro-manage 
the details of government.  Criticizing or questioning 
Niyazov's decisions was treated as disloyalty, and could be 
grounds for removal from jobs, if not worse.  Niyazov's 
"neutral" foreign policy led to Turkmenistan's political and 
economic isolation from the rest of the world.  His policies 
calling for mandatory increases in cotton and wheat 
production led to destructive agricultural and water-use 
policies that left some of Turkmenistan's arable land 
salinated and played-out. 
 
EDUCATION -- "DIMMER PEOPLE EASIER TO RULE" 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Niyazov's attacks on the educational system grew 
increasingly destructive in his later years.  The Soviet-era 
educational system was broadly turned into a system designed 
to isolate students from the outside world and to mold them 
into loyal Turkmen-speaking presidential thralls.  President 
Niyazov famously defended this policy when, in 2004, he told 
a fellow Central Asian president, "Dimmer people are easier 
to rule."  Niyazov's destruction of his country's education 
system included cutting the Soviet standard of ten years of 
 
ASHGABAT 00000009  002.2 OF 006 
 
 
compulsory education to nine, firing large numbers of 
teachers, and introducing his own works as core curriculum at 
the expense of the traditional building blocks of a basic 
education.  He slashed higher education to two years of study 
and discouraged foreign study by refusing to recognize 
foreign academic degrees.  Taken together, these steps 
created a "lost generation" of under-educated youth 
ill-equipped to help Turkmenistan take its place on the world 
stage in the 21st century. 
 
RULE OF LAW -- A LOW BAR 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Niyazov seriously harmed Turkmenistan's political 
system.  His capricious authoritarianism left a legacy of 
corrupt officials lacking initiative, accountability, and -- 
in many cases -- the expertise needed to do their jobs. 
Young officials who came of age after Niyazov's destructive 
changes to the education system are particularly deficient in 
the skills and broader world vision needed to facilitate 
Turkmenistan's entry into the international community.  Many 
laws lack transparency and provision for oversight and 
recourse.  The population's lack of understanding of the 
meaning of rule of law has left the bar low in terms of 
citizens' expectations of their government. 
 
BERDIMUHAMEDOV BEGINS TO REBUILD THE SYSTEM 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov still pays nominal lip service to 
maintaining his predecessor's policies, but he has started 
reversing many of the most destructive, especially in the 
areas of education, health, and social welfare.  He has 
restored and -- in many cases -- increased old-age pensions 
that Niyazov had largely eliminated.  The president is 
embarking on a course of hospital-building, with the main 
focus on improving medical facilities in Turkmenistan's five 
provinces.  To this end, he has already authorized 
construction of five provincial mother-and-children 
(maternity) hospitals.  He has also publicly committed to 
improve rural infrastructure and to ensure that every village 
has communications, electricity and running water. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) In education, Berdimuhamedov is reversing many of 
the policies Niyazov ordered him to implement while he served 
as Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers for Education 
and Health.  Since his inauguration, Berdimuhamedov has 
ordered a return to the compulsory standard of ten years' 
education, a return of universities to five years of 
classroom study, and a new emphasis on exchange programs and 
the hard sciences.  On July 13, he called for recognition of 
foreign academic degrees, a major step which would allow 
exchange students to receive credit for their overseas study. 
 The goal is to repair Turkmenistan's broken education system 
as quickly as possible and to give the country the educated 
workforce that it needs to compete commercially.  These 
efforts, however, are hampered by old-thinking bureaucrats, 
especially in the Ministry of Education and Ministry of 
National Security, who sometimes block or otherwise impede 
foreign assistance programs.  This may perhaps be a legacy of 
the culture of xenophobia Niyazov had encouraged. 
 
ELIMINATING THE CULT OF PERSONALITY 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has incrementally started 
dismantling Niyazov's cult of personality.  Huge posters of 
the deceased president are beginning to be removed from 
public buildings.  References to Niyazov's "literary" works, 
especially the Ruhnama, are less frequent and probably will 
fade away over time.  The new president has banned the huge 
stadium gatherings in his honor and requirement for students 
and government workers to line the streets, often for hours, 
along presidential motorcade routes.  Tellingly, the 
activities for the one-year commemoration of Niyazov's death 
were the bare minimum consistent with Turkmenistan's cultural 
and religious traditions.  However, in some places, Niyazov's 
picture has been replaced by Berdimuhamedov's, and the new 
 
ASHGABAT 00000009  003.2 OF 006 
 
 
president's quotations have replaced Ruhnama quotations on 
newspaper mastheads -- a practice not uncommon in Central 
Asia.  One hopeful trend is that Berdimuhamedov appears to be 
signaling that the country should draw its inspiration from 
its history rather from the cult of the leader.  Posters of 
Turkmen historical figures have started to appear.  In 
addition, all but one of the new currency banknotes scheduled 
to introduced in 2009 will carry pictures of historical and 
cultural figures (the largest bill will still have Niyazov on 
it). 
 
FIRST STAGES OF POLITICAL REFORM 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has replaced some of the ministers 
he inherited from Niyazov.  His focus seems to be on finding 
better-qualified individuals.  On August 24, he established a 
"Human Rights Commission" to help bring the practices and 
policies of Turkmenistan's government agencies into line with 
international standards and human rights conventions.  He has 
established a state commission to review complaints of 
citizens against law enforcement agencies, which has become a 
vehicle for pardoning at least some of those imprisoned 
(including for complicity in the 2002 attack on the 
presidential motorcade) under Niyazov.  In August, 
Berdimuhamedov pardoned 11 prisoners, including the former 
Grand Mufti of Turkmenistan, Nasrullah ibn Ibadullah, and 
promised more would be pardoned.  Several other prisoners of 
concern were freed in the October amnesty.  Berdimuhamedov 
has also agreed to allow UNDP to provide human rights 
training to police, and in December established a Law 
Institute and Special Commission to help law drafters improve 
Turkmenistan's legislation. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Niyazov's police state, especial on freedom of 
movement, has all but disappeared.  Berdimuhamedov has 
recoved police checkpoints on the roads between cities and 
eliminated the requirement for Turkmenistan's citizens to 
obtain permits to travel to border zones, although, the 
permit system remains in force for foreigners.  While the 
president has been slower to strengthen rule of law, correct 
Turkmenistan's previous human rights and religious freedom 
record, and promote economic reform, he has told U.S. 
officials he wants to "turn the page" on the bilateral 
relationship and is willing to work on areas that hindered 
improved relations under Niyazov.  He has approved an 
unprecedented number of visits by U.S. delegations since he 
took office, including those directed toward promoting change. 
 
ECONOMY AND FINANCE 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Turkmenistan's economy is closely controlled by 
the state and is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon revenue. 
Although the government for many years regularly proclaimed 
its wish to attract foreign investment, it made little effort 
up to now to change the state-control mechanisms, restrictive 
currency-exchange system and dual currency exchange rates 
that created a difficult foreign investment climate. 
However, in recent months, we have seen greater willingness 
among upper-level personnel at Turkmenistan's main economic 
and financial institutions -- including both the Ministry of 
Economy and Finance and the Central Bank -- to acknowledge 
that reforms are necessary.  Part of this new attitude is 
linked to the president's growing frustration, expressed 
publicly during a number of cabinet meetings, with 
Turkmenistan's complex, opaque web of on- and off-budget 
funds, which have made a thorough accounting of state income 
and disbursements/expenses virtually impossible.  And, in 
fact, President Berdimuhamedov's frustration with the lack of 
accountability in the budget was one of the key factors that 
led, in late July, to the creation of a Supreme Auditing 
Chamber.  Growing interest in investing in Turkmenistan among 
western businessmen is also providing an incentive for change. 
 
FOREIGN POLICY:  A NEW FOCUS ON ENGAGEMENT 
 
 
ASHGABAT 00000009  004.2 OF 006 
 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Despite his statements that he plans to continue 
the "neutrality" policies of his predecessor, Berdimuhamedov 
has put an unprecedented emphasis on foreign affairs to 
repair Turkmenistan's international and regional relations. 
He has met or spoken by telephone with all the leaders in the 
region -- including with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan, with 
whom Niyazov had maintained a running feud.  He has exchanged 
visits with Russia's President Putin, and held a high-profile 
gas summit with Putin and Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev 
in Turkmenistan's Caspian seaside city of Turkmenbashy 
(formerly Krasnovodsk).  China has a strong and growing 
commercial presence in Turkmenistan, and continues to court 
Berdimuhamedov through a series of high-level commercial and 
political visits.  In mid-July, Berdimuhamedov made a state 
visit to China, focused mainly on natural gas and pipeline 
deals.  While Turkey has given Berdimuhamedov top-level 
treatment, including a visit to Turkmenistan by President Gul 
in December and an invitation to Ankara, its relationship 
with Turkmenistan continues to be colored more by the image 
of its lucrative trade and construction contracts that are 
siphoning hundreds of millions of dollars away from state 
budgets here than by generous development assistance or 
active political support. 
¶14.  (SBU) Berdimuhamedov has held positive meetings with 
high-level U.S. officials and leaders of the Organization for 
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and United Nations 
to discuss areas of potential assistance.  He met with UN 
High Commissioner on Human Rights Louise Arbour in May, the 
Head of the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and 
Human Rights (ODIHR), Christian Strohal, and agreed to a 
visit by the UN's Special Rapporteur on Religious Freedom at 
an as-yet undetermined date.  He made his first trip to the 
United States as president to participate in the UNGA session 
in September, where he also met with Secretary of State Rice. 
 In October, Secretary of Energy Bodman met with 
Berdimuhamedov in Ashgabat.  November 5-7, Berdimuhamedov 
made his is first visit to EU and NATO headquarters in 
Brussels. 
 
ENERGY RESOURCES 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Turkmenistan has world-class natural gas reserves, 
but Russia's near monopoly of its energy exports has left 
Turkmenistan receiving much less than the world price and 
overly beholden to Russia.  Pipeline diversification, 
including both a pipeline to China proposed for 2009 and the 
possibility of resurrecting plans for Trans-Caspian and 
Trans-Afghanistan pipelines that would avoid the Russian 
routes, and construction of high-power electricity lines to 
transport excess energy to Turkmenistan's neighbors, 
including Afghanistan, would not only enhance Turkmenistan's 
economic and political sovereignty, but also help fuel new 
levels of prosperity throughout the region.  Berdimuhamedov 
has told U.S. interlocutors he recognizes the need for more 
options and has taken the first steps to this end, but he 
also took the steps needed to increase the volume of gas 
exports to Russia -- signing a tripartite agreement (with 
Russia and Kazakhstan) in Moscow on December 20 to enlarge a 
Soviet-era Caspian littoral pipeline.  He will require 
encouragement and assistance from the international community 
if he is to maintain a course of diversification in the face 
of ongoing Russian efforts to keep Turkmenistan from weaning 
itself away from Russia. 
 
TURKMENISTAN'S "OPPOSITION" 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Fifteen years of Niyazov's authoritarianism, along 
with Russian black propaganda touting the dangers of civil 
society, have left Turkmenistan without an internal 
opposition and convinced that U.S. NGO efforts to develop 
civil society represent a plan to promote a so-called "color 
revolution."  Threatened with imprisonment in the past, most 
who disagree with the system either learned to turn inwards, 
or left the country.  While there are expatriate opposition 
groups, especially in Europe, those groups have a history of 
 
ASHGABAT 00000009  005.2 OF 006 
 
 
disunity and a reputation for promoting self-interested 
agendas as much as human rights.  Although there is no 
quantifiable method to assess the popularity of these groups, 
numerous conversations with local people have yielded little, 
if any, support.  Instead, most simply refer to the leaders 
of the overseas opposition -- a number of whom have been 
tainted by the perception that they committed financial 
crimes in their earlier incarnations as office-holders in 
Turkmenistan -- as "the ones who made it out before they were 
imprisoned."  This leaves Turkmenistan without a nascent 
Vaclav Havel or Nelson Mandela who could serve as a rallying 
point for a democratic opposition, meaning that promoting 
engagement with the current president may be the best and 
only strategy for promoting a more democratic system. 
 
INFECTIOUS DISEASE SAFETY 
 
¶17.  (SBU) Under President Berdimuhamedov, Turkmenistan has 
begun to engage with the U.S. government on infectious 
disease identification and safety.  The U.S. Centers for 
Disease Control (CDC) and the U.S. Naval Medical Research 
Unit (NAMRU) are participating in a multi-donor avian 
influenza project led by the World Bank that supports 
modernization of the avian flu laboratories in Ashgabat and 
Turkmenbashy.  As part of this effort, CDC purchased and 
delivered to Ashgabat equipment for identification of H5N1 
virus and other diagnostic equipment, which was installed in 
the Ashgabat lab at the beginning of November.  NAMRU is 
delivering bio-safety equipment and disposables within the 
same project.  Related to this, a CDC delegation of lab 
experts will be in Turkmenistan January 7-11 to assess the 
level of bio-safety and to recommend measures to improve 
existing security in avian influenza laboratories. 
 
¶18.  (SBU) Additionally, in response to a September 11, 2007, 
request for assistance from the Deputy Minister of Health and 
Medical Industry in designing a new infectious disease lab, 
USAID helped to organize a visit by a joint U.S.-Canadian 
team of specialists from the Department of State's Bureau of 
International Security and Nonproliferation, the Canadian 
Global Partnership (CGP), and U.S. Centers for Disease 
Control.  The delegation will discuss laboratory design 
plans, visit several public health labs, and meet with 
scientists to assess the level of safety and security and 
determine what assistance can be provided by either the U.S. 
government or the CGP.  The team planned to visit 
Turkmenistan January 23-26, but USAID was advised 
unofficially on January 2 that the proposed dates were "not 
timely" due to "technical problems" with the plans to 
construct the laboratory.  Post awaits official confirmation 
of the postponement and acceptable dates for the delegation 
to travel to Turkmenistan. 
 
NON-PROLIFERATION INITIATIVES 
 
¶19.  (SBU) Turkmenistan is a potential transit country for 
weapons of mass destruction (WMD).  It does not and has not 
had any nuclear, chemical or biological production 
facilities.  Based upon this and the country's neutrality, 
the government has not signed a Cooperative Threat Reduction 
(CTR) Agreement with the United States.  Consequently, the 
Defense Threat Reduction Agency's CTR office is not working 
in Turkmenistan and has no presence here.  The EXBS program 
in conjunction with the Department of Energy has placed 
radiation portal monitors at all official crossing points on 
the Iranian and Afghan borders.  The program has also 
provided personal radiation pagers, handheld radiation 
detectors and contraband detection kits.  About biological 
weapons, the United States knows only that Turkmenistan once 
had Anthrax medical samples. 
 
SECURITY 
 
¶20.  (SBU) The U.S. security relationship with Turkmenistan 
continued unabated through the period of the presidential 
 
ASHGABAT 00000009  006.3 OF 006 
 
 
transition, and the Defense Ministry is cooperating at a slow 
and consistent pace.  Competition for the time and attention 
of security officials is increasing, however, as other 
countries are also keen to improve their security 
relationships with Turkmenistan.  The military largely 
remains a parade force that only now may be receiving 
additional presidential attention to repair and upgrade its 
aging Soviet-era equipment. 
 
¶21.  (SBU) Turkmenistan continues to occupy a strategic 
location in the Global War on Terrorism.  Although basing is 
not an option, Turkmenistan remains an important conduit for 
the U.S. military to Afghanistan.  Maintaining blanket 
overflight permission and the military refueling operation at 
Ashgabat Airport remains a key U.S. goal.  CENTCOM and the 
Turkmen military maintain a robust annual 
military-to-military cooperation plan that has grown from 20 
events in FY05 to over 90 events in FY08.  With the 
assistance of the Embassy's EXBS program, the State Border 
Service operates the former U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Point 
Jackson, a U.S. Excess Defense Article donation. 
Turkmenistan marginally participates in NATO exchanges, but 
has participated in Marshall Center programs since 1994.  The 
Nevada National Guard, through the State Partnership Program 
and CENTCOM's military cooperation program, has a 
long-standing and productive relationship with Turkmenistan. 
Nevada's current areas of emphasis are disaster preparedness 
and response, fire prevention and response, and 
counter-narcotics activities. 
 
¶22.  (SBU) CENTCOM's counter-narcotics program has funded the 
construction of border-crossing stations on the Iranian and 
Afghan borders.  One project on the Uzbekistan border is 
underway and two more are scheduled for 2009.  The embassy 
hopes to continue working with CENTCOM and the Nevada 
National Guard in the important areas of border security and 
counter-narcotics, primarily focused on the Afghanistan 
border. 
 
U.S. POLICY 
 
¶23.  (SBU) U.S. policy in Turkmenistan is three-fold: 
 
-- Encourage democratic reform and increased respect for 
human rights and fundamental freedoms, including support for 
improvements in the education and health systems; 
 
-- Encourage economic reform and growth of a market economy 
and private-sector agriculture, as well as diversification of 
Turkmenistan's energy export options; and 
 
-- Promote security cooperation. 
 
¶24.  (SBU) Many countries seek increased cooperation with 
Turkmenistan on energy and security, but its human rights 
record in the past has made this cooperation problematic for 
some.  In raising its human rights concerns, the United 
States: 
 
-- Encourages the elimination of Niyazov-era abuses and 
restrictions on freedom of movement; 
 
-- Promotes greater religious freedom, including registration 
of unrecognized groups like the Roman Catholic Church, and 
making legal provision for conscientious objectors; and 
 
-- Advocates the growth of civil society by urging the 
government to register non-governmental organizations. 
HOAGLAND