VZCZCXRO2887
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHPW RUEHROV RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAH #0139/01 0281218
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281218Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0157
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 3299
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1115
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0985
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 1554
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000139 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN 
ANKARA FOR AGRICULTURAL COUNSELLOR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EAGR ECON SOCI TX
SUBJECT:  BITTER COLD DEADLY IN TURKMENISTAN'S NORTH 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Turkmenistan's abnormally cold temperatures this 
winter are taking a toll.  Reports have surfaced that two military 
conscripts have died of exposure, and hundreds of head of livestock 
have perished in what has been the coldest winter in 40 years. 
Possible flooding in the Amu Darya River valley seems to have been 
averted, however, thanks to the military's reported success in 
breaking up ice floes.  Citizens are not happy with the current 
situation, but with the specter of flooding seemingly past and 
warmer temperatures ahead, most have already begun to believe that 
the worst is behind them, at least for this year.  END SUMMARY. 
 
TEMPERATURES REACH 20 DEGREES BELOW 0 CELSIUS 
 
¶3.  (SBU):  Turkmenistan's unusually cold weather first hit on 
January 4, when the temperature dropped to 17 - 25 degrees below 
zero Celsius.  In Ashgabat, the temperature dropped to minus 10-14 
during the day and minus 16-19 during the night.  The temperatures 
in the north were even colder, with the northern province of 
Dashoguz reportedly registering temperatures of 31 degrees below 
zero.  (COMMENT:  Dashoguz residents claim that the actual 
temperatures were even colder.  Turkmenistan's state weather service 
continues the Soviet-era practice of misreporting extremely high and 
low temperatures to avoid work stoppages mandated by the labor law 
in extremely warm and cold weather.  END COMMENT.) 
 
THE TOLL:  AT LEAST TWO DEATHS AND HUNDREDS OF DEAD SHEEP 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The cold is taking a toll.  Many city dwellers have been 
operating without running water because of frozen pipes and have 
been experiencing rolling brownouts as power-plant service is 
stretched to the maximum.  Provincial residents have faced even more 
severe problems.  In Dashoguz, two military conscripts died from 
exposure during guard shifts, and farmers in both Dashoguz and Mary 
provinces reportedly have had to slaughter livestock lost to the 
cold.  One farmer from Tagtabazar in Mary province, who previously 
had over a thousand sheep, lost nearly three-quarters of his flock. 
Experts are now beginning to talk about possible meat shortages -- 
or, at least, much higher prices -- hitting Turkmenistan's bazaars 
this spring.  (NOTE: The damage to livestock caused by the cold 
weather was officially confirmed by the head of the State livestock 
association at the January 25 Cabinet meeting.  END NOTE.)  In Mary, 
schools and kindergartens were closed because of insufficient heat, 
and hospital managers recommended that patients postpone trips to 
hospitals until the weather warms up.  A resident of Balkan Province 
reported that Caspian coastal settlements suffered from lack of 
water and food supplies due to ice that blocked the navigation 
channels. 
 
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN AVERTED 
 
¶5.  (SBU) One of the government's biggest concerns -- the 
possibility of flooding in the Amu Darya River valley -- seems to be 
subsiding.  President Berdimuhamedov inspected the growing ice 
blockage on January 21.  Embassy personnel traveling to Lebap 
Province later that week reported the Ministry of Defense was busy 
dynamiting ice damns on the river.  The Ministry's reported success 
in breaking up some of the largest ice fields, combined with 
temperatures that are warming in a north-to-south pattern, may allow 
the authorities to avoid the massively destructive flooding that 
left whole districts under water in 1968, the last time temperatures 
reached their current levels. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Nobody is pleased with the infrastructure 
problems and the authorities' poor response to the unexpected 
temperatures.  However, Turkmenistan's citizens are used to coping 
with problems on their own, and many are also beginning to recognize 
that the situation could be worse.  With temperatures expected to 
begin warming in just a few more weeks, most are beginning to 
believe that the worst is behind them, at least for this year.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
 
ASHGABAT 00000139  002 OF 002 
 
 
HOAGLAND